A lot was made over the previous two seasons regarding a possible decline in interest in the National Football League. While it’s true that both attendance and ratings have taken a bit of a dip, it’s estimated that NFL wagers hit an all-time high mark in 2018. So whether you’re excited about the upcoming NFL season or not, we’re excited to start handicapping some futures and NFL win totals. Predicting NFL win totals has become increasingly challenging as the parity and “last to first” type fluctuation that we’ve become accustomed to seeing can prove tough to measure. Throw in the unknown of catastrophic injuries to marquee talent, and you may shy away from getting in on totals. We’re believers in finding the value here, and because of the previous statement regarding injuries, we generally err on the side of finding quality unders. Here’s a look at our top NFL win total plays for the 2019 season.
Green Bay Packers
2018 Record : 6-9-1
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 9 Wins (Over -110 / Under -110)
We’re on our own island here when it comes to the Green Bay Packers. Many of the NFL gurus have ranked the Pack’s offseason as one of the best and certain analysts even have them winning the NFC North. After some examination, it just doesn’t seem like that’s the path that this team is on. Can new head coach Matt LaFleur re-energize Aaron Rodgers and this team and provide the spark that was so obviously missing at the end of the Mike McCarthy era? It’s always a little risky when you’re wagering on some unknown factors, but here is where we stand: Aaron Rodgers has failed to stay healthy over the past two seasons, so there’s a chance that could continue again this year. And I don’t think anyone would disagree that if he’s not in the lineup this team isn’t winning, period. But even if he does manage to play the season out, are the Packers really better than a .500 team? This defense still looks suspect, and relying on a compliment to Davante Adams based on what’s on this roster is a stretch. It certainly seems as though the Packers are rebuilding and the overall roster will be improved moving forward, but how much window does Aaron Rodgers have left?
Additionally, we may be skeptical, but there have been some articles written discussing how the Pack had the best offseason in football. Maybe there’s something we’re missing but we just don’t see it. Parity in the NFL makes it difficult to predict team’s wins and losses each year, but we can’t help but look ahead at their schedule for 2019. On paper, this Pack has a questionable roadmap to 10 wins. In addition to what promises to be 4 battles within the division with Chicago and Minnesota, they have tilts with KC, San Diego, Philadelphia and Dallas. However, they do have games with the New York Giants, the Washington Redskins at home and of course a couple of battles with divisional foes Detroit. All said and done, as much as it can seem difficult to go against the elite Rodgers, and many NFL experts, this team seems to have the making of a 7-9 bunch.
BetCrushers Take : UNDER
Dallas Cowboys
2018 Record : 10-6
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 9 Wins (Over +110 / Under -130)
The Dallas Cowboys have historically been one of the most heavily bet favorite teams over the past four decades. That is more often than not going to translate in a lot of losses against the spread based on how a sportsbook is going to set their lines. Enter 2019, where the Cowboys have what appears to be a stretch number with 9 wins set as their total. Let’s not kid ourselves, it’s still a mystery as to how Jerry Jones has given Jason Garrett so many opportunities. But despite Garrett’s very mediocre coaching, this team has some pieces in place that could easily have them competing for a divisional title. We’ve got the Eagles with a slight edge to win this division, but not by much.
The Cowboys defense may not be the flashiest or most well-known, but this unit can flat out play. This 2019 group has the ability to be a top five, and is balanced well against both the run and the pass. Offensively, there is really no reason to believe that this group won’t be able to continue the surge they saw, particularly Dak Prescott, once Amari Cooper joined the squad. The offensive line is still solid, the running game should be able to produce, and if reports that Jason Witten is “in the best shape of his life” are even remotely true, this offense could roll. Peaking ahead, there are three potential L’s on the schedule in matchups with the Saints, Patriots, and Rams, three of last year’s final four. Throw in the two divisional tilts with the Eagles and they’ll have to earn their wins for sure. But once you look past those matchups, it’s possible the ‘Boys could be favored in each of their remaining games. This year’s Cowboy’s team sure looks like a playoff team to us, and a 10-6 mark or even 11-5 seems like a very plausible result. We don’t often like saying it, but… How bout ‘dem Cowboys?
BetCrushers Take : OVER
New York Giants
2018 Record : 5-11
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 6 Wins (over +110 / under -110)
Wow, where do we even begin with this New York Giants team? I can’t recall an NFL GM taking as much heat as Dave Gettleman has taken over the past year. For what it’s worth, we have to agree with much of that bashing. Recently a Giants fan asked us if he was missing something in terms of their strategy and movements. After a second to process the question, my response was pretty simple: Time will ultimately tell, but no, you’re not missing anything. This team sure appears to have a very cloudy vision at best. While the Giants aren’t the first team to unload some high maintenance players like OBJ and Landon Collins, or aging and oft-injured or underachieving players like Olivier Vernon, it certainly feels like they did so without a clear goal of what they wanted to accomplish moving forward.
Let’s take a closer look at what we do know at this point. The Giants used the number 7 overall pick in the draft to land their hopeful successor to Eli Manning. While there were certainly mixed reviews on Daniel Jones, the quarterback out of Duke, finding a QB of the future was an absolute must. Although we personally don’t think Jones is that guy, he very well could prove us wrong. With that being said, the quarterback position for this year is sure looking like one of those situations where the incumbent limps off into the sunset (a lot of “Eli Face”) and the young kid takes his lumps. The offensive line although it should be slightly improved, still isn’t an elite bunch, and this defense appears to be lacking the playmakers needed to be effective.
Speaking of playmakers, outside of Saquon Barkley, who could possibly be the overall best player in this league, the Giants are sorely lacking in that department. Add all of this up and mix in a pretty favorable schedule that includes matchups with Arizona, Tampa Bay, Miami and divisional foe Washington and what do you have? We’re thinking a repeat of last year’s 5-11 record. This one doesn’t have much margin for error and with a total this low you may want to tread cautiously, but we’re committed to betting against this bunch.
BetCrushers Take : UNDER
Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 Record : 9-6-1
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 9 Wins (over -110 / under -110)
Speaking of heavily bet on teams, no one in the NFL leads the category more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Based on last year’s record 9-6-1 in what was widely considered a vastly underachieving season, this one sure feels like an easy rebound into a 10-6 or 11-5 season. To be honest, this team has enough to be a 12-4 divisional winner if things fall into place. So obviously this is an easy over wager, right? For most NFL experts it would appear to be the case. One of our favorite analysts, Bucky Brooks, recently wrote a piece on the Steelers and how he expects them to be substantially better without the distractions that were in place a year ago. It’s possible he’s hit the nail on the head with that prediction.
Ben Roethlisberger appears committed, the O-line is one of the best in the league, they have a solid running back tandem with James Conner and Jaylen Samuels and Juju Smith-Schuster is poised to have an even bigger year with the departure of social media influencer, err, former wide receiver talent Antonio Brown. This may not be the best defense the prized franchise has ever fielded, but they are stocked with some solid depth and some key players. I think an interesting watch this year will be to find out if T.J. Watt is going to be an elite type player following in the footsteps of older brother, or if he’s just going to be a solid contributor for the Stiller Gang.
There’s a big wild card for this team this year and that is around head coach Mike Tomlin. Most in the Steelers inner circle felt Tomlin lost the locker room and the respect of the team during the 2018 season. How will he and the team respond to his message this year? There’s one really key question that we feel will ultimately decide the final record of this year’s team. Can the Steelers continue their dominance over what used to be gimme wins against the Browns, or have the Browns completely leap frogged them in the AFC Central? We’re going to assume Pitt can grab a split here and with the Ravens, which should add up to over 9 wins.
BetCrushers Take : OVER
Detroit Lions
2018 Record : 6-10
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 6.5 Wins (over -130 / under +110)
Take a close look at the juice on this win total at -130 for the over and +110 for the under. Let’s just start by saying, we don’t get it? Is it really that appealing to take the Lions at over the 6.5 win total? At BetCrushers, we’re always looking for value so right off the cuff the +110 which is widely available on the under seems enticing. But it becomes extremely appealing when you start doing the math and your equation seems to equal what seems like an almost too good to be true under. While there are no sure things in sports betting, there are certainly wagers that seem a lot more likely than others. See exhibit A, the 2019 Detroit Lions.
Last years Lions team was a scrappy bunch that actually overcame some tough injuries to put together a 6-10 season that included a few really nice performances. The thing that we’re struggling to understand is how their win total actually goes above last year’s number? Is this Lions team really better than last years? That’s debatable. But the fact of the matter is, this just doesn’t line up for the Motor City team. I’m not sure anyone could convince us that the Lions aren’t dead-last in this division, and really, dead-last by quite a margin. Detroit has the misfortune of having to battle the Bears, Vikings and Packers which is certainly not looking like it will add up to more than 2 wins. When you look through the rest of their schedule, it seems nearly impossible that they could find 5 additional wins in that lineup. Head coach Matt Patricia has his hands full trying to build a defense that he wants to be representative of his style of play. On paper, it looks as though they’ll actually take a step backwards before they move forward even though they added some potential talent through the draft.
Offensively, one has to wonder how focused QB Matthew Stafford will be as he is dealing with the very unfortunate situation regarding his wife and her battle against brain cancer. We wish Matt and his wife nothing but the best off the field, but it would certainly not be surprising if his preparation and consequently his play on the field suffer a bit. Digging a little deeper into the offense, T.J. Hockensen is the third TE that the Lions have nabbed in the first round since 2009, but he definitely has the ability to be a very good player for a long time. However, the loss of Golden Tate last year really hurts the team’s ability to move the chains on 3rd down. Kenny Golladay proved he can be a legitimate number one receiver and exceeded even the expectations of the team, but the Lions proved that even having a superstar playing on the outside in Calvin Johnson, doesn’t necessarily translate to W’s in that column. This team will most likely scrap hard each and every week, but the odds are stacked against it and 5-11 seems like what this bunch can look forward to.
BetCrushers Take : UNDER
New Orleans Saints
2018 Record : 13-3
2019 Regular Season Win Total O/U : 10.5 Wins (over -110 / under -110)
The 2018 New Orleans Saints team was possibly the most balanced and best team in the NFL. Their defense finally put a product on the field that didn’t let down the offense, and Drew Brees, with some help from a running game was his usual productive self as he entered his 40’s. It’s a shame that a horrendous missed call cost both the Saints and the world a chance to see them battle New England for supremacy and the Vince Lombardi trophy. (Side note – we’re slightly bitter as we had loaded up on the Saints in the NFC Championship game as well as had them as future bet to win the NFC). Some losses are harder to move on from than others. Anyhow, back to business.
That Saints team finished an impressive 13-3 and returns most of its core, although Max Unger retiring could have a bigger impact than one might think. If Jared Cook can provide even close to the level of play he gave to the Raiders last year, that could be something the Saints haven’t really been able to consistently get going since Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles were there. The running game should be solid as Latavius Murray can handle the big back duties and Alvin Kamara will look to duplicate his impressive performance from a year ago. On defense, the team looks as though it should be able to keep pace with the high flying offense again this year and has enough talent to be at minimum a top half of the league type of unit. Historically, this team would have killed for that.
So what’s to keep this team from cruising to another 13-3 mark? Well for starters, history. Teams that have finished 12-4 or better over the past 2 decades have actually failed to make the playoffs an astonishing 41% of the time, ouch. It goes to show what free agency and parity in this league can do, if your team isn’t named the New England Patriots. If you’re thinking about bucking the historical trend, wait just a second. Looking into things more, on paper the Saints have one of the toughest schedules out there. They open with the Texans, at the Rams, at the Seahawks and home against the Cowboys. After a division game against Tampa Bay they have to go to the Jaguars and to the Bears. Add in the fact that I’d expect an improved Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers team in the division and they’ll have to bring their A game every week if they’re going to have a repeat season.
Lastly, let’s take a look at one of the best to ever suit up in this league, Drew Brees. To this stage in his career, he has really not given any indication that he’s slowing down or unable to carve up opposing defenses, particularly with a solid running game providing balance. But father-time is undefeated in this league and at some point Brees will no longer be able to do what he’s mastered throughout his time with the Saints. The big question is, will that decline happen this year, or is his physical and mental preparation enough to put that off for another season? One last thought: As we mentioned with Aaron Rodgers, if Brees who has been remarkably durable, happens to either fall drastically off, or catch an old man injury, we can’t imagine this team going anywhere with Teddy Bridgewater or Taysom Hill at the helm. All that makes taking the over very risky. So after planting plenty of doubt through historical data, scheduling matchups and potential pitfalls, we’ve got just one thing to say… Who Dat? Saints 11-5.
