Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 8-2
Week 2 Recap:
Never a bad thing to follow up a 4-1 opening weekend with another 4-1 performance in week number two. Ironically, our two losses on the season have both been our teaser bets, which is normally where we shine. As we look back at the week’s wagers, we’ll remind ourselves that whenever the next bad beat comes, we were on the right side with one of our wins in week two. We had the over with the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders, which looked all but dead until the Cardinals found a way to score a TD with no time left and convert a seven yard two point conversion. Then an unlikely fumble from Hunter Renfroe resulted in a scoop and score to put the game over. Sometimes you need a little luck, and we’ll take it. We also had the over in the Lions and Commanders contest, and other than a slow start for Washington, was a relatively easy winner. Field goals are what we expected in the Texans game at Denver, which kept them under their team total with only a mild sweat. Sunday Night Football played out as we expected as a fired up Packers team returned home and covered the first half spread against a lackluster Chicago Bears team.
Week 3 Picks:
Before you read any further, if you refuse to consider square plays or road favorites, you can save yourself some time with reading this week’s selections. We’ve got a total of six best locked in, with a double-down in one game, and what we hope is our first successful teaser bet of the season. A pair of team totals for some high-powered offenses, and the previously mentioned two road favorites against the spread. Cheers to week three!
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (2-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Sunday September 25th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
One of the best games of the weekend features an AFC East battle between a pair of 2-0 teams when the Bills head south to face the Dolphins. Both teams are riding high after some impressive wins in week two, and neither is lacking in confidence heading into this one. The Bills have owned the Dolphins since Josh Allen became their starter, but this is clearly the most talented Miami team he’s faced to date. Will the Dolphins be able to take advantage of a depleted Buffalo secondary with their speed or can Josh Allen and the Bills sneak out of town with a road victory?
No offense has been hotter than the Buffalo Bills dating back to the playoffs last season, as they’ve been so good they essentially haven’t needed a punter. First year offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has Josh Allen in full command of the offense and the chemistry with wide receiver Stefon Diggs is proving a lot to handle, even for elite cornerbacks. Allen takes aim against the Dolphins on Sunday, a team that he has owned throughout his career. This Miami defense is as talented as it’s been in several years, and needs to step up after a tough showing against the Ravens in week two. Diggs is likely to draw a lot of Xavien Howard, which means someone else will need to step up in a supporting role. The good news for the Bills is Gabriel Davis is scheduled to return after missing week two, and the combination in the slot of Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are building some trust with Allen. The player who may get unleashed a bit is tight end Dawson Knox, as the Dolphins scheme could leave the young receiver some space in the middle of the field. The Bills sometimes also abandon the run, but this is a game where Devin Singletary needs to chip in on the ground, if they can stay committed to him. The Bills offensive line has been average through two games, with Allen masking some of their pass blocking inconsistencies. They’ll face a pretty fierce rush from the edge with Jaelan Phillips and Melvin Ingram, the latter having single-handedly wrecked them a season ago with the Steelers. At the end of the day, this offense goes with Josh Allen, so regardless of what the Dolphins throw their way, he will use whatever means necessary to overcome it.
What a difference a half can make for the reputation of a player and team, as Tua Tagavailoa went from dud to stud a week ago against the Ravens with his eventual 6 touchdown performance. The Dolphins plan of surrounding Tua with an electric supporting cast is proving sound over the first two weeks, as he’s getting the ball into his playmakers hands effectively. The team has already recognized the value of inserting Raheem Mostert in as the starting running back, as his speed in tandem with their wideouts is a difficult matchup for any defense. Whether or not Tua truly is the answer may be tough to grade this weekend, with the stars are aligning for him in his matchup against this Bills defense. In their first two games, Buffalo was dominant, however it could be a different story Sunday. The Bills will be minus both starting tackles as the loss of Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips on the interior of the line will hurt them from a production standpoint, and an energy standpoint. Equally as bad for the Bills will be not having the services of safety Micah Hyde, who really positions the defense, and the secondary specifically before each play. With the team already missing All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White, and starting cornerback Dane Jackson, their secondary is 3/4 down heading into the showdown. That’s certainly not an ideal spot to be in as it forces two rookies to match up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The heat in Miami and the shortened rotation at defensive line and cornerback could really play a big factor in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 7-0 straight up against the Dolphins in their last 7 games
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 9 games for the Bills
– The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The total has gone over in 10 of the last 14 games between the Bills and Dolphins
With a full roster, we’d be loading up on the Bills as they have the Dolphins number, including in Miami. However, being down 5 important starters against the speedy wide receivers for the Dolphins could ultimately spell trouble. Buffalo is healthy on offense however, so there shouldn’t be any issues on that end moving the ball. The coaches know this is a game that they’ll probably have to outscore Miami to win. With the key over/under number sitting at a lofty 53.5, instead of taking the game over, we’re looking at what seems like a very enticing Buffalo team total.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total Over 28.5 (-120)
Bills 33, Dolphins 31
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)
Sunday September 25th
1:00pm
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
The Chiefs and Colts renew an AFC rivalry in Indianapolis as the visitor looks to stay perfect, while the host is searching for their first win of the season. The Colts have been a popular home dog as many still believe this team has the talent to turn things around, and the Chiefs have to slip up at some point, right? The Colts have a matchup advantage on offense with Jonathan Taylor, but Patrick Mahomes has shredded their coordinator Gus Bradley’s defenses at every one of his stops. This could end up being a statement game for either team depending on the outcome.
For as much success as Tyreek Hill is having in Miami, the Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn’t really skipped a beat yet. There hasn’t really been one replacement for the speedy Hill, it’s been a combination of players and positions. Patrick Mahomes has started the 2022 season hot again, and he is going against a Colts defense this week that has not been as impressive as many feel they should be. It will be tough for them Sunday not only because they’re facing the Chiefs, but because they’ll also be without their leader in Shaquille Leonard. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue is also iffy to play, which further weakens the unit as a whole. The Chiefs have rotated a lot of players at both running back and receiver, which makes it tough to gameplan stopping them. That’s not good for defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who hasn’t been able to slow down Mahomes even when he knew what was coming his way. Making matters even worse, the Colts have not been able to stop tight ends in their first two contests, which means the one known entity for Kansas City in Travis Kelce, could have a big day.
After two weeks of football, we’re still trying to figure out if the Colts can get this offense on track, or if they’re maybe just not all that good. There are a couple of really positive things going for them in this particular game. First, the team will welcome back their number one wideout as Michael Pittman, Jr. is slated to return from injury. Without the young receiver last weekend, this offense flat out could not throw the ball. Their lack of weapons beyond Pittman, Jr. is concerning enough as is, and without him they’re downright anemic. The other good news for Indy is the matchup they have with their offensive line and running back Jonathan Taylor against the Chiefs defense. Although the Colts offensive line has not played that well to open the season, they should be able to create some lanes for Taylor and the running game as they did in week one. Indianapolis will be happy to keep the clock moving in an effort to keep Mahomes and company on the sideline. Expect nice games from both Taylor and Pittman, Jr. in what is a really important early season game for the Colts. If the offense struggles Sunday, it’s not impossible that head coach Frank Reich would at least consider making a switch at the quarterback position.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 10 games for the Chiefs
– The total has gone over in the last 5 road games for the Chiefs
– The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
This game could end up being really close if the Colts can control the line of scrimmage on offense. However, if Matt Ryan continues to struggle and they can’t find a weapon to pair with Michael Pittman, Jr., this is a game that could get out of hand. With the uncertainty around the Colts offense, we’re opting for another angle on a team total as the Chiefs should be able to put up 30 points. It’s also interesting to note that with their total under 28, it’s possible this team is not kicking long field goals as it looks as though kicker Harrison Butker may be missing the contest. Patrick Mahomes has been a monster during September in his career, and we’re banking on it continuing here.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs – Team Total Over 27.5 (-110)
Chiefs 31, Colts 26
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (1-1) vs. New England Patriots (1-1)
Sunday September 25th
1:00pm
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
The 1-1 Baltimore Ravens and the 1-1 New England Patriots meet in Foxboro searching for what would be a nice early season checkmark for the winning team. The Ravens are once again struggling with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which will put even more pressure on quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Patriots meanwhile, want to replicate some of the offensive production they had a week ago to match the strong early play from their defense. These head coaches have faced off before and each knows how difficult it is to best the other. What will win out here, strong defense or better quarterback play?
Lamar Jackson bet on himself by turning down a guaranteed contract, and the early results of that decision look genius. Jackson has a big test going into New England, to face a Belichick defense that has had mixed results against him. On paper, this isn’t one of the Patriots best defenses we’ve ever seen, however they’ve looked pretty good through the first two weeks overall. While Jackson has been able to carry the offense for the Ravens, they desperately want to get their running game going. We could see the debut of J.K. Dobbins, although he’ll clearly be on a limited pitch count if he does see the field. The question for Baltimore in this game is who can step up to support tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman? Or are those two enough for Lamar and company to continue to put points up? As we mentioned, this isn’t the most talented New England defense, but they are a disciplined and experienced unit. That is important when playing a mobile quarterback like Jackson.
The Patriots had to be excited to see Mac Jones get the ball downfield and looking comfortable in the pocket in their week two win. How comfortable he is pushing the ball downfield could depend on the availability of the Ravens starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. Both players have had some struggles not only battling injuries, but with miscues defensively, but ultimately they should be able to contain New England’s wide receivers if they’re able to go. Jakobi Meyers is banged up as well, which means that the Patriots may have to go even more run heavy than they normally like to do. The Ravens did get some good injury news later in the week, as both Calais Campbell and Justin Houston look as though they’ll be able to go boosting both the run defense and their pass rush. It will be a battle in the trenches for sure, and whether or not the Patriots can control the line of scrimmage, will probably determine whether or not they can win this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Ravens are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games
Normal NFL betting logic would tell you that getting a field goal at home with a legendary coach would be a sharp wager to make. We’re completely bucking that trend and going square bet by laying the points here with the Ravens. The method to this is really pretty simple. These are two teams on different tiers in this NFL season, and particularly at the quarterback position. With each team entering the week 1-1, we’re just looking at this and saying, which team would you peg more likely to be a 2-1 team after three games? The Ravens offense should be able to move the football, and until the Patriots can prove them can consistently put up points, we’re going to take the better team, even on the road.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -3
Ravens 26, Patriots 20
San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (1-1)
Sunday September 25th
8:20pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
The 49ers and the Broncos both secured their first win in week two as familiar quarterback foes Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson found some rhythm within their offense without a lot of preseason work. Holding on to Garoppolo is proving to be genius and or lucky for San Francisco as the veteran leader keeps this strong roster intact and competitive. Wilson is still adapting to his new system and weapons in Denver, and the ceiling is high if the Broncos can put all of the pieces together. This should be a hard-hitting and physical football game, and the first team to 20 could end up being the winner.
The San Francisco 49ers won’t publicly state it, but it sure feels like there is more excitement around their offense with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, than with injured starter Trey Lance. The team knows what it has with Garoppolo, and they can run their scheme with what they know he can and cannot do well. They’ll take on a tough Broncos defense in one of the roughest road environments in Denver, throwing Jimmy G right into the fire. He’s no stranger to tough road games, and has done pretty well in his career in those spots. The 49ers are still working on getting their running game going, as the loss of starter Elijah Mitchell has put more work on Deebo Samuel in that role. Fortunately for San Francisco, they’ll have some help as tight end George Kittle will make his season debut, giving them a viable target in the middle of the field. The matchups to really watch are on the edges of the offensive and defensive lines as we have some strength on strength battles. It’s also worth noting that Patrick Surtain II could be a little hobbled, which could put added pressure on the Denver secondary.
Things are still a little rocky in Denver, pun completely intended, with Russell Wilson and this Bronco offense. They finally got some things going in the second half of last week, but have much stiffer competition against the Niners this weekend. The struggles start with what is proving to be a bad combination of not so great offensive line play, and indecisive quarterback play. Look for San Francisco to exploit that behind Nick Bosa and their pass rush. Wilson has been less compelled to run, and he’s going to need to just to survive, let alone perform in this game. The Broncos will try to lean on their talented running back duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, however that could also be tough sledding, as the 49ers are pretty stout against the run. Throw in the fact it appears wide receiver Jerry Jeudy will miss the contest, and there’s a lot of pressure boiling up for Wilson and first year coach Nathaniel Hackett.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
Much like in the New England and Baltimore matchup, we’re looking at a battle of 1-1 teams each searching for a second win. Although the gap is less, we’ve still got this as a difference in tiers with the 49ers ahead of the Broncos, at least at this point in the season. This game has all the makings of a slugfest, that should be pretty close. In the NFL, you can’t understate the importance of coaching, and the Niners have a clear advantage here, again, at this point in the season. We’re actually double-dipping on this game with both a first half wager and a full game wager. If you shop sportsbooks, you can look at an exacta bet, but we’re splitting ours up.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -1 First Half (-110) / San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110)
49ers 22, Broncos, 19
Teaser Bet
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Detroit Lions (0-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-1)
Sunday September 25th
1:00pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -6 (-110)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
Houston Texans (0-0-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1-1)
Sunday September 25th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -3 (-105)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Vikings pick and Texans +9
It’s tough enough to lose a game as a quarterback in the National Football League, and it’s even worse when you’re beaten up in the process. That’s what happened to both Kirk Cousins in a rough Monday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Davis Mills has had his own struggles as a he guides a less than impressive Texans roster towards what he hopes is their first win of the season. The Vikings and the Texans have winnable games on Sunday, if they can play up to their full potential.
The Vikings have to be eager to get back on the field after a really poor showing on the national stage. As has been stated by many, Kirk Cousins is Jekyll and Hyde on tough primetime games, versus cushy home games. This game isn’t nearly as cushy as it has been in recent years as the Detroit Lions are a legitimate playoff contender and a team clearly on the rise. Minnesota will focus on getting Dalvin Cook and the ground game going, and they hope their offensive line as well. Justin Jefferson has some pretty enticing matchups as well in the passing game so we should see the “good” Kirk Cousins again, versus a Lions defense that is still growing. The Lions on offense should keep pace a bit, but Jared Goff could be under pressure playing in a hostile environment for the first time this season. We’re figuring this will be a pretty close game, but it’s tough to see the Vikings dropping this one at home, even against a tough Lions team. As the Lions continue to develop, they’ll be able to win tough road games, we just don’t think they’re there just yet.
We’re rarely interested in getting in on games with two teams that will be sitting home during the playoffs, but there’s exceptions to every rule. The Houston Texans have only a 0-1-1 record, but they’ve played hard and competitively despite being undermanned. They have a legitimate chance to win their first game when they head to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Texans offense needs to find some semblance of a running game, and this could be the week they really try to get rookie Dameon Pierce the ball. The Bears through a pair of games have struggled stopping the run. If Houston can get anything going on the ground, it will really help open things up for potential big plays with Brandin Cooks. On the other side of the ball, we’ll see a lot more of Justin Fields trying to make plays with his legs, as well as running back David Montgomery. The Texans could give up a lot of yards on the ground, but they’ll be ok with that, as long as they don’t give up broken or big plays in the passing game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games vs the Vikings
– The Lions are 0-9-1 straight up in their last 10 road games
– The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Jaguars are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the Chargers
– The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. the Jaguars
After an 0-2 start with our teasers this season, taking the Vikings and the Texans certainly doesn’t seem like the soundest of decisions. Sometimes you have to bet on some lesser teams, when the process dictates. We’re getting the Vikings at home in a pick’em game with the Lions, and a Texans team that tied a game, and lost by just a TD on the road in Denver. Staying within 9 points sure seems do-able against an offense that is very laborious like the Bears. If this teaser doesn’t hold up, we may have to put them on ice for a week until we find those dream numbers we’ve been so used to seeing throughout the years.
