Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 34-27
Week 14 Recap:
Consistency has been a big key for the BetCrushers during a season that has had its fair share of ups and downs. Despite having a very solid season of wagers, we’ve yet to hit that perfect weekend record, something we really thought was going to happen in week fourteen. Another great start to the week as we nailed the over in the Minnesota and Pittsburgh game on Thursday Night Football. That was followed up by a pretty convincing cover for the Dallas Cowboys, even with a late surge attempt from the Washington Football team. We added in a late play on the New Orleans Saints team total over, which was falling a point shy, until Taysom Hill broke one to the house vaulting us to another victory. Our teaser bet came through yet again, as the Falcons won outright against the struggling Panthers, and for the second time this season Tyler Huntley replaced Lamar Jackson and somehow managed to get things done. That had us at 4-0 heading into Monday Night Football with an outstanding ticket on the Arizona Cardinals at -2.5. That was one of our favorite plays of the weekend, and even before the last minute scratches of Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Higbee that pushed the line all the way to 3.5 before kickoff. Unfortunately for us, Matthew Stafford was near flawless, and Aaron Donald reminded the world why he’s the top defensive player in the league. The Rams out-muscled and out-classed the Cardinals as Kyler Murray was unable to get off a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the game. Still searching for that perfect weekend, but we’ll certainly take 4-1 records every week.
Week 15 Picks:
Handicapping NFL football games heading into this weekend is really a tall task with the uncertainty of COVID protocols around the league. Players are testing positive every day, and we’re seeing lines moving big numbers as a result. This makes trying to get early bets and beating the closing line nearly impossible, as it’s basically a roll of the dice at this point. All you need to do is take a look at the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders Saturday contest which opened at Cleveland -3.5, ballooned to -6.5, and now actually sees the Raiders as short favorites. As a result, we’re keeping our plays pretty brief and straightforward this week as we’ll hope some of this mess cleans itself up in the coming weeks. And although we did get a great teaser bet in early (Dolphins and Niners) we aren’t posting it officially since the lines have moved out of teaser range by the time we published this post. This will be just the second week we do not offer a teaser option, as we’re going with 3 games against the spread, and one team total that we really like. Here’s to hoping things don’t move too much between now and the weekend!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Thursday December 16th
8:20pm
NFL Network / FOX
Sofi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Thursday Night Football should do well with the TV ratings as the league will showcase AFC West rivals as quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert face off in an important football game. First place is on the line, as well as possible playoff seedings and wild cards as the Chargers hope to slow down the KC offense, and solve their suddenly strong defense. While all of the attention will be on the quarterback position, it could be the team that plays better on defense who comes away with the needed victory.
After a rough stretch where the Kansas City offense really struggled to get points on the board, the team has put up some big totals over the past few weekends. However, something is still not clicking with their offensive unit, as points have been coming courtesy of defense and special teams help. The Chiefs will once again be tested against a Chargers defense that has been up and down, but has proven they can make big plays in games. The LA defense will really be testing the patience of head coach Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as they’re going to play a cover two and try to lock up the receivers of the Chiefs, forcing the team to be patient. We anticipated the running game picking up in Kansas City, and if they’re going to win this road contest, they’ll need to run the ball effectively and often. Fortunately for KC, the Chargers are still having trouble stopping opposing runners, meaning the yards and movement will be there if the Chiefs take what is given to them. Perhaps the most troubling part of the Chiefs struggles is the continued absence of tight end Travis Kelce, who has really been quiet, with the exception of the team’s first meeting with the Raiders. While it’s understandable that the wideouts for the Chiefs might not get the targets and receptions we’ve grown used to based on opposing defenses, the tight end position should be able to find room in the middle of the field. It will be interesting to watch how the Chargers elect to play Kelce, and whether or not he can get back to making some of the impact plays to move the chains we’re so used to seeing. For the Chargers, watch Joey Bosa as he’ll line up on both sides of defensive line and could make some big plays if the Chiefs don’t offer help to their tackles in passing situations.
For as good as Justin Herbert as been in his first two seasons as quarterback for the Chargers, this offense can also disappear at times. Whatever the reason is, this team goes through weird stretches where they don’t move the ball that well. It’s only weird because at other times they seem to move up and down the field so effortlessly. Although they Chargers don’t want any offensive droughts in this game, the more critical piece for them is making sure they take care of the football. During the Chiefs resurgence, their defense has been getting sacks and creating turnovers at one of the best paces in the league. That might be scary for Charger fans as their super talented young left tackle Rashawn Slater is apparently going to miss the game Thursday with an illness. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on backup Trey Pipkins to deal with Frank Clark and Chris Jones on that side of the line. Just Herbert has deceptive quickness in the pocket, but if he’s under durress, mistakes can absolutely happen. Much like we discussed on the Kansas City side of things, the Chargers could really keep this game stable if they can get Austin Ekeler and the running game moving. The Chiefs are still one of the softer teams overall against the run, so if LA can stay committed that should help them out when it’s time to throw.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games playing the Chargers on the road
– The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
The only thing better than starting out Thursday with a good football game is starting out with some winning wagers. In all honesty, it’s proven a little tough to handicap the Chargers because they have been so up and down throughout the season. They’re a good football team for sure, and they could certainly win this game. Even though Kansas City still looks sluggish offensively, this team is starting to get it together, led by their defense. The absence of left tackle Rashawn Slater for LA may not be discussed much leading up to the game, but it’s a big deal. We certainly won’t say that Justin Herbert will struggle, as he has almost never done so during his young career. We will say that we aren’t anticipating an electric performance from him, and he may end up making a big mistake somewhere along the way. With this line dropping to just -3, and little homefield advantage for the Chargers, we’re going to take a shot at the defending AFC champs in a spot where they can distance themselves in their division, and continue to reclaim their spot as a top dog in the conference.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Chiefs 27, Chargers 21
New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts
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New England Patriots (9-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Saturday December 18th
8:15pm
NFL Network
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts -2 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Two of the hottest teams in the league will meet in Indianapolis when the Colts face the New England Patriots, fresh off of bye weeks. If you like the fundamentals and X’s and O’s of professional football, this is a game you’ll want to tune into as Colts head coach Frank Reich will try to outmaneuver the Patriots Bill Belichick. Not only is this game important in the AFC playoff picture, it will be a throwback bruising contest that promises a lot of hard hitting and physical play.
The over/under on Mac Jones passing attempts this weekend has to be set at 3, right? All jokes aside, it will be fun to see what offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has in store for Jones against a tough Colts defense. This is really a strength on strength preview as the offensive line for the Patriots will look to push the defensive line of the Colts around. That task is easier said than done, as Indy like to get nasty in the trenches, and it’ll be a 60 minute battle for the big men on both sides of the ball. What we’ve learned from Mac Jones is, he can take advantage in the passing game when teams are focused on stopping their running attack of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Colts want to make New England one dimensional so they can get after Mac Jones and not let him get comfortable with short and easy passes. Although they’re occasionally prone to get beat with some big plays, the Colts corner trio of Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore and Xavier Rhodes have really played well this season. You have to imagine Indy will have safeties Khari Willis and Andrew Sendejo up near the line of scrimmage a bit to really force the issue and make Mac Jones throw on them. One thing we know for sure is, if this turns into a chess match, the Patriots won’t be afraid to make changes on the fly in an effort to get the upper hand.
Just in case anyone forgot, it was Frank Reich’s offense led by Nick Foles, that absolutely torched Bill Belichick’s defense when the Eagles beat the Patriots a few seasons back. This is a tougher New England defense as a whole, but Reich should find some success scheming against them. For starters, he should be able to stick to his bread and butter, which is running the ball with Jonathan Taylor behind his offensive line. The front for New England is a feisty group, and has some young depth and talent, however they aren’t the biggest group in the world. The Colts offensive line, which is as healthy as it’s been all year should be able to move them around and create enough room for Taylor and company running the football. That will certainly be a key in this ballgame as Carson Wentz needs to be able to read simplified defenses. If the Colts are running well, it will limit the scheme that the Patriots can run, and also force them to bring some safety help up to stop the run. That’s where Wentz can be effective in play action taking shots down the field. One of the best things Carson Wentz has done this season in Indianapolis is spread the ball around, getting multiple receivers involved. That’s a good thing against the Patriots as he can try to avoid turnover magnet J.C. Jackson and look in a different direction. Turnovers are always key, and you can argue here, that how well Wentz takes care of the football will determine the outcome.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Colts
– The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
When you look at trends for the New England Patriots against both the Colts and over the past two months, they’re downright unbelievable. They’ve absolutely owned the Colts going all the way back to the last days of Peyton Manning’s time in Indy, and are the hottest team in the league. Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare and you can understand why the Patriots getting points is one of the heaviest plays for the public of the weekend. Over 3/4 of the wagers and cash at this point are on the Patriots as they’re a clear publicly backed underdog on Saturday. We jumped on this one early in favor of the Colts though, as this is a tough spot for New England. First, you have to imagine the Patriots are going to lose at some point, right? Is this team really good enough to run a table like they did in the Brady/Moss era? Second, they’re on the road in a dome that would favor the better passing team at this point in the season. Most importantly, this is just a bad matchup for the Patriots as they simply cannot enforce their will on the Colts the way they have against others during their winning streak. If you wanted to tease the Patriots, that’s a really nice play in what should be a close game, but at less than a FG we’re siding with the home team here.
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts -2
Colts 28, Patriots 24
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (6-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
Sunday December 19th
4:05pm
CBS
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -9 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
When you look at the records of the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers, it’s crazy to think that only one game separates them in the standings. Some timely close wins from the Falcons, and a slow start and injuries early in the season for the 49ers make this a really important game in the chase for an NFC wild card spot. Although the records may be close, San Francisco opened as an -8.5 point favorite as the sportsbooks don’t view these teams as evenly matched.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense finally showed some signs of life last week against the Carolina Panthers quality defense. Make no mistake about it though, they benefited from a completely inept Carolina offense, something they won’t get to see again this week against the 49ers. At this point in the season it’s really pretty clear what the Atlanta Falcons offense is, and that’s Cordarelle Patterson. The do-it-all running back slash wide receiver seems to be the only way the Falcons can really sustain offense and produce points. They’ll look to move the elusive speedster around as always, and with all three of the 49ers starting linebackers banged up, could have some matchup success if they’re not full speed. There’s really no getting around it though for Atlanta, they have to make it work with Patterson to have a chance in this game. The 49ers defensive line is starting to play better, and they have an obvious matchup advantage against the Falcons offensive line. Matt Ryan could really struggle if the Niners’ are able to get after him when he drops back to throw. The other challenge here is the lack of weapons at wide receiver for Ryan, as without Calvin Ridley he lacks the true gamebreaker to attack the weakness of the 49ers, which is their cornerbacks. Kyle Pitts needs to be a focus as always, and this is a game where Atlanta may try to line him up out wide to get that matchup against Josh Norman K’Waun Williams. Really though, there is a clear key to this game here, and it’s can Matt Ryan find time to stay upright and clean in the pocket, or will he be hit, frustrated, and potentially turn the ball over?
Don’t look now but the 49ers offense is really starting to play well, and maybe even have all of their weapons healthy at the same time. Assuming running back Elijah Mitchell clears concussion protocol and returns for this game, it will mark just the second time their top running back, receivers and tight end are all on the field together this season. (Not counting Raheem Mostert of course). With the really good group they have upfront blocking, and the creative play calling from Kyle Shanahan, this is a really tough bunch to defend. The Falcons have been quietly solid and improved overall defensively, but this is still not exactly a feared unit across the spectrum. The 49ers seem to be able to run the football on any team at any time, so Mitchell should have a nice game back with some fresh legs. That sets things up nicely for the passing game, as we’ve watched George Kittle play like an absolute machine the last two weeks. It’s a nice luxury when you have multiple playmakers that you can move around in the formation to keep defenses off balance. One of the keys to the Falcons defensive improvement has been the play of young cornerback A.J. Terrell, who is one of the top graded at the position in the entire league. Terrell is a lockdown type of player, but he probably won’t be put in a position to truly matchup with one receiver in this game. Look for Shanahan to move Deebo Samuel around to make Terrell a non-factor in pass coverage. In the trenches, the Falcons might be able to somewhat hang with the powerful San Francisco offensive line early, but don’t be shocked if they get worn down by the 4th quarter, particularly if their offense can’t stay on the field on the other side.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– Matt Ryan is 2-7 playing against the 49ers on the road in his career
The Atlanta Falcons have one of the worst point differentials of a team with their record that we’ve historically seen. When they’ve won, they’ve squeaked by, and when they’ve lost, they’ve been blown out of the building. Revisiting their season, you can see they’ve gotten those wins against some pretty weak opponents, and been crushed by the better teams they’ve faced. We’re looking at this as two drastically different teams with clear advantages almost everywhere for the 49ers. Even with a large spread of 9, we’re going to lay the points here too. A lot of games this season are landing on 10, which is all we need to cover this bet. Truth be told, it shouldn’t be that close at all. Look for a mismatch blowout.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -9
49ers 32, Falcons 17
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (6-7) vs. Chicago Bears (4-9)
Monday December 20th
8:15pm
ESPN
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
A win for the Minnesota Vikings and a loss for the Chicago Bears in week 14 painted a clearer picture for the remainder of each team’s season. The Vikings are still alive and fighting for a wild card, while the Bears now are just finishing out the season and evaluating what players will be on the roster in 2022. On paper this doesn’t look like the most exciting game of the weekend, but this could be a fun one to watch, and there are clearly some wagering opportunities available.
Everyone is still waiting for the Vikings Kirk Cousins to implode and drop down into the lower echelon of NFL quarterbacks in the league. While it’s true that he tossed a couple of picks in prime time a week ago, Cousins continues to grade out in the top half a dozen QBs heading into the last four weeks of the season. Although he won’t be facing the elite Chicago Bear defense of a couple of seasons ago, he’ll have a tough test on the road in Soldier Field under the lights. Things will start as they always do with running back Dalvin Cook who ripped through the Steelers for over 200 yards last week returning from his shoulder injury. The Bears hope to have defensive tackle Akiem Hicks back for this game to assist in slowing down Cook, and will need to do so to win this game. Ironically, Cousins has actually played better when he’s been under pressure and the Vikings haven’t run the ball that well, but make no mistake about it, they need to run it. Cousins really forced the ball to Justin Jefferson with Adam Thielen out, and it ended up being good and bad when you look back at the film. As much as you’d like the ball in Jefferson’s direction, someone else needs to step up, and Cousins needs to have trust in them. A bright spot has been with backup tight end Tyler Conklin, who has proven to be a reliable target when the Vikings need a play. Something else to watch here is what the weather is like in Chicago on Monday night. Things look like they’ll be mostly calm, but throwing the ball in Soldier Field in December can pose challenges to even a veteran quarterback.
A veteran quarterback is not something that the Bears will be marching out as rookie Justin Fields will get another prime time start. Fields has provided an interest and a spark to the offense of the Bears, but it’s very clear he’s still learning the game at the NFL level. He’s fortunate that his offensive line has played better than most anticipated they would, and they have a good matchup against the Vikings. Credit Mike Zimmer for finding some ways to manufacture a pass rush without his edge rushers, although that might not be the game plan for his team on Monday. Look for the Vikings to actually try to contain Justin Fields and keep him in the pockets to force the throws. We’ve watched Fields make plays with his legs and his arm, and we’ve also seen him make typical rookie mistakes when throwing. You could argue that no safety in the league is better at disguising coverages than the Vikings Harrison Smith, and that could be a challenge for Fields in this game. If he’s confused, interceptions could be follow, and that’s not something this Bears offense can afford to do. Expect Matt Nagy to really lean on David Montgomery and the running game as it’s not only his strength, but also a weakness of the Vikings.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games for the Vikings
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 9 road games for the Vikings
– The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
This is a football game that the Minnesota Vikings should and need to win in all reality. They seem to be in this pattern of playing everyone close, and winning when it’s not expected and losing when they’re supposed to win. What has been a lot more steady for the Vikings schedule is the fact that their overs are hitting at a really consistent pace. This game should go over as a whole, but we’re not sold on Justin Fields and the Bears. Because of that, we’re going to play the Minnesota Vikings total of over 23.5 instead. The Vikings have scored at least 24 points in every road game they’ve played this season, and there is little reason to believe they can’t do it again versus the Bears.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings – Team Total Over 23.5
Vikings 27, Bears, 23
