Previous Week Plays – 3-3
Season Record – 11-5
Week 3 Recap:
Oh so close to a third straight winning NFL weekend, but we end up splitting the card to go 3-3 and eating up a little bit of juice. Both of our team totals fell short, as the Bills and the Chiefs made costly mistakes in the red zone and missed easy field goal opportunities keeping their scores low. The Bills for sure had plenty of opportunities, racking up 500 total yards, yet ending up with a measly 19 points in their loss. The Ravens handled the square bet chalk for us disposing of the Patriots despite a game effort from New England at home. We also secured our first teaser bet win of the season as the Texans kept their contest close, while the Vikings found enough magic to come away with a win in the 4th quarter. That left us with the Sunday Night Football contest between the 49ers and the Broncos, where we doubled down on San Francisco with a first half bet and a full game bet against the spread. The Niners came through with the early lead cashing the halftime wager, before ultimately giving up a late score to the Broncos to give away the game cover near the end. This probably should have been a 4-2 or 5-1 weekend, but all that matters is whether or not the ticket cashes, which in this case they did not.
Week 4 Picks:
Our selections for week four are a lot less chalky than they were a week ago as we’re rolling with an underdog that we believe can keep things close, and a team total in England. We’ve got two teasers for the first time this season, with teams being teased up. For the first time in a long time, we’ve got three separate wagers on one team, so this could be a make or break type of Sunday for us. These lines across the league in week four seem about as on point as you’ll find so we’re not forcing anything that’s not there this weekend.
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2)
Sunday October 2nd
9:30am
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
The London series resumes this Sunday as a nation in mourning, gets to welcome in Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston to help take their mind off of things? Two teams with playoff aspirations have gotten off to somewhat bumpy starts, although the Vikings enter with a 2-1 record, compared to a 1-2 mark for the Saints. Which team will rise to the occasion and come away with a much needed victory?
Something just really doesn’t look right with the Minnesota Vikings offense through their first three games. They’re technically grading out well overall, and we’ve seen sparks from Justin Jefferson in week one, and Dalvin Cook a week ago. This could be the week that they put everything together, however it won’t be easy against a pretty solid New Orleans Saints defense. The Vikings dodged a bullet as Dalvin Cook is healthy entering the game, and he could have some success against what isn’t quite as stout of a run defense as we’ve been accustomed to seeing from the Saints. The variance in quarterback Kirk Cousins is as high as any QB in the league, depending upon the success of his offensive line and their running game. Cousins is going to have his opportunities in this game as Marshon Lattimore believes he will travel with Justin Jefferson without a lot of help. This matchup of superstars will have the biggest impact on the final score of the game. Jefferson has been stymied the last two weekends, while Lattimore has been great starting the season. The Vikings need Jefferson to win, because the Saints match up pretty well with their other weapons. Cook and Jefferson are always the keys for their offense, but that’s even more the case in this game.
Injuries will play a factor for the Saints on offense as Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas enter the game banged up, with Jarvis Landry unlikely to play. Quarterback Jameis Winston is practicing and will be able to play, and the Saints need him to play better than he has thus far in the season. The Vikings will be dialing up pressure with their front seven, and that matchup against the veteran offensive line of the Saints will be something to monitor. The right side of the Saints offensive line is steady, but an injury to Andrus Peat, and the inconsistent play of left tackle James Hurst could be a problem. The Vikings Danielle Hunter and Z’Darius Smith have the potential to wreck the game if Winston isn’t getting the ball out quickly. The availability of Michael Thomas and his ability to work the short to intermediate routes is crucial to help with that game plan. The Saints would love to get Alvin Kamara going as well as he’s gotten off to a really slow start to the season. One other injury to monitor is the health of utility weapon Taysom Hill. He clearly gives this offense a boost when he’s on the field, and especially with the other injuries mentioned, his availability could be a quiet key.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Saints are 4-1 straight up against the Vikings in their last 5 games
The Minnesota Vikings are the better football team in this matchup and if they can get out to a fast start there’s a real possibility they could run away with this one. It doesn’t help that the Saints have a slew of injury concerns heading across the Atlantic Ocean and trying to prepare in a different time zone. However, the Saints have played this Vikings team tough with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Of course the biggest difference is they now have Jameis Winston at the helm, and not future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. Despite that, this has the feel of a game that should be pretty close and probably ends up somewhere around the 3 point spread. When these two teams have played, there have generally been a lot of points scored, although that’s a little less likely in this game. Despite the Saints boasting a good defense, 22.5 points seems low for
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings – Team Total Over 22.5 (-110)
Vikings 24, Saints 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs.
Tennessee Titans (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)
Sunday October 2nd
1:00pm
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -4 (-105)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
An important AFC South divisional showdown between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts kicks off in the early window Sunday. Each team got a crucial win in week three, and the winner here will have nice momentum exiting the first quarter of the season. The Titans have generally gotten the better of the Colts during the tenure of head coach Mike Vrabel, but this Tennessee team is clearly not as dangerous as the past few seasons. Was the Colts win over the Chiefs the kickstart they needed to take control of the division, or can the Titans continue their dominant ways against Indy?
On the topic of offenses that just don’t look right, we can add the Tennessee Titans into the conversation. It’s understandable though, as the team had to offload top wideout A.J. Brown, and is missing starting left tackle Taylor Lewan. They’ll take aim at a pretty strong Colts defense that hopes to welcome middle linebacker Shaquille Leonard back to anchor the interior of the field. That’s big when facing Derrick Henry, who finally was able to get going last week against the Raiders. It will be tougher sledding for the big back this week as the Colts are surrendering a league best 2.6 yards per carry headed up by DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. This game figures to be a bit of a throwback ground grinding type, but if Henry can’t get things going, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be forced to make some plays. Tannehill has also looked subpar as he searches for some rhythm with a mostly new receiving corp. Against a deep Indianapolis secondary it’s anyone’s guess on which receiver might be able to step up. Robert Woods is the most obvious candidate, but even he admitted he’s still working back from his knee injury. Tannehill has not played been asked to do much against the Colts the past few seasons as they were able to run the ball effectively. That will most likely change in this contest.
While it’s possible Derrick Henry could have some struggles getting going Sunday, there’s really not much reason that Jonathan Taylor should share any of those struggles. The Titans are giving up a league worst 5.2 yards per carry putting them on the opposite end of the spectrum. After a monstrous performance in the opener, Taylor has stalled the last two weeks, and you know head coach Frank Reich would love to feed him in this game. If linebacker Zach Cunningham and safety Amani Hooker can’t go, that could just fuel that running fire. It won’t be exciting but these two teams also feature some of the grittiest players in the trenches, neither team’s group playing particularly well to start the season. The Colts do have the advantage on the interior for sure, and the loss of Harold Landry III for the Titans hurts them in both their running defense and in their pass rush. The lack of a pass rush is a concern against Matt Ryan, who is the prototypical dropback pocket passer. He’ll look to his main target Michael Pittman, Jr. who will test Titans corner Kristian Fulton, returning from injury. Realistically, Frank Reich would probably be fine running the ball 40 times in this game if they can get away with it.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Colts
– The Colts are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games vs the Titans
– The Titans are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 games vs the AFC South
Another early season divisional contest where the winner gets a leg up with a win that could matter quite a bit down the stretch. The Colts will feed Jonathan Taylor often, and he should find his way to a 100 yard day on the ground. The real question is going to rest with how effectively Matt Ryan can move the offense through the air? The Titans on the other side really labor to sustain offense as the lack of a true receiving weapon and subpar offensive line play is hindering them. Despite these discrepancies, this has all the makings of a field goal type divisional game. With the Titans having owned the Colts the past few seasons, we’ll take the 4 points this spread has jumped to here and hope the Titans can find something on offense.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans +4
Colts 22, Titans 19
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Sunday October 2nd
1:00pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
The Philadephia Eagles have been somewhat surprising opening the season in a dominating 3-0 manner. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been perhaps even more shocking, entering the game with a 2-1 record and sitting atop the AFC South after a beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers. Doug Pederson returns to Philadelphia as the new head coach for the Jags in what figures to be a nasty interconference battle. The Eagles know they are a legitimate playoff team, and after Sunday we’ll have a better picture of whether or not the Jaguars are as well.
Many pundits believed the Jacksonville Jaguars offense would be improved in the second season for Trevor Lawrence, and improved would be a serious understatement. They’ll take their balanced approach into Philadelphia and we’ll need a creative gameplan to attack the gritty Eagles defense. In a common theme for the weekend, the battle of the big men upfront will be important as Jacksonville needs to win what is a fairly even matchup. The interior guards Brandon Scherff and Ben Bartch are critical in the run game, and the Jaguars offense looks a lot smoother when they’re running effectively with James Robinson and Travis Etienne. The Eagles have used a more attacking style of defense, which has worked spectacularly, but could leave them vulnerable to some over pursuit in their run defense. If the Jaguars can’t get the running game going, it’s going to be a long day for them, and particularly quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Eagles have been relentless with their pass rush and have done so without needing to bring extra men. That’s allowed them to play a combination of man and zone coverage best suited for their talented secondary. When you look at the Jags receivers, they’ve performed well, but with Marvin Jones, Jr. phasing out, Christian Kirk is the only viable weapon they have. He’ll likely see a lot of Darius Slay, Jr. and could see his statline come back to earth after a fast start to the season. Keep an eye on tight end Evan Engram who could see an uptick in targets if Lawrence is under duress.
The offense for the Philadelphia Eagles has to be a nightmare for Jags defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. Even with some nice early season play from cornerbacks Tyson Campbell and Shaq Griffin, they’re going to be overmatched with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. The other problem is the pass rush for Jacksonville won’t enjoy the same success it has in their first three games. The Eagles offensive line is arguably the top unit in the league, and as long as they can take care of pass rusher Josh Allen, they should give quarterback Jalen Hurts the time he needs to find his targets. Of course even if the Jaguars can somehow slow things down against the pass, they’ll have to defend Jalen Hurts and the Eagles running backs with a defense that will leave some space in the middle of the field. While Jacksonville did a formidable job making things tough on the Chargers a week ago, the big difference is they didn’t have to worry about the threat of Justin Herbert taking off with the football. If the Jaguars do manage to slow down this Philly offense, the rest of the AFC South will go on serious notice.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 1-18 straight up in their last 19 road games
– The Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Eagles are 7-2 straight up in their last 9 games
At some point this season the Philadelphia Eagles are going to stumble, or have an off day where things don’t bounce their way. This won’t be that game as this will be a learning lesson of growing for Trevor Lawrence in the return game for head coach Doug Pederson. The Jaguars are going to win some games this season, but this is a really tall task on a second straight road game against a team they don’t match up well with. We’re going all in on the Eagles to remain as the only undefeated team in the league after the loss by the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. We have them in a teaser that you can read about below, and we’re also taking them against the spread for the game and the first half. Philly has come out blazing in their first three games and there’s little to believe that won’t continue on Sunday. It’s a #FlyEaglesFly kind of weekend, and how they perform will have a huge say in our profit/loss for week four.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles – First Half -4 (-110) / Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Eagles 29, Jaguars 20
Teaser Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Sunday October 2nd
1:00pm
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos (2-1) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)
Sunday October 2nd
4:25pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Eagles -.5 and Broncos +8.5
You were able to get our thoughts and breakdown of the Eagles and Jaguars above. We’re also playing them in a teaser leg that we’re pairing with the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos could be considered a fortunate 2-1, as the Raiders are still searching for their first victory of the season. If the Raiders have any open of salvaging their season it needs to start with a win against their divisional opponents at home on Sunday.
The Broncos and Raiders renew their rivalry with Russell Wilson at the helm for the first time for Denver. Wilson has a favorable matchup against what has been a very poor Raider defense, although he hasn’t yet been able to exploit some other bad defenses. As the Titans did a week ago, the Broncos would be wise to really feed their running back duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in this game. If the Raiders have a strength on defense, it’s rushing off of the edge with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. They’re susceptible to physical running backs, and both of the Broncos backs run hard at all times. The other thing that we learned from watching Russell Wilson on primetime last week, is that he absolutely needs to utilize his legs in the right situations to make plays. The middle of the field should be completely wide open for him, so scrambling should be a weapon for him when he needs it. He also needs to take advantage when the deep ball is available and make some of the throws we got used to seeing when he was in Seattle. Both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have the ability to get deep on this Raiders secondary, and they need to capitalize by hitting their share of big plays. The Raiders on the other side seem to have an offense that at some point will explode and go off. That probably won’t be the case this weekend against a very good Denver secondary, and defense as a whole. Denver has the ability to play man coverage with their corners, and even if they give some help to the side of Davante Adams, can still matchup with players like Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. The Raiders are limited in just how much they can take advantage of their great skill players by mediocre and even poor play from their offensive line. The Broncos should win that battle, making the Raiders mostly one-dimensional, and forcing quick throws from quarterback Derek Carr.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs NFC opponents
– The Jaguars are 1-18 straight up in their last 19 road games
– The Eagles are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 home games
– The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
You saw above that we’re confident enough to bet the Eagles ATS, so we clearly love them at home needing to just get the win against the Jaguars for one leg of this teaser. The other game we’ve selected comes down to basically two main factors for the Denver Broncos. First, their defense is really solid, and should keep them in any football game. Secondly, Russell Wilson is no stranger to playing in close football games, win or lose. We’re banking on another close divisional matchup that the Broncos may even sneak out a win in, and certainly should keep within one score.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Eagles -.5 and Broncos +8.5
Eagles 29, Jaguars 20 / Broncos 20, Raiders 19
Teaser Bet
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Sunday October 2nd
4:05pm
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Carolina Panthers -2 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Monday October 3rd
8:15pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -2 (-105)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Rams +8 and Cardinals +8
The NFC West is very much up for grabs as the Rams and Cardinals each take to the road to face the 49ers and the Panthers, respectively. The Rams will have had some epic recent battles with the 49ers, as each team will try to impose their strengths on the other. The Cardinals have not looked good opening the season, but have a matchup they can, and need to win against the Panthers. Defenses could lead the way in both of these games, and whoever can make the timely offensive plays will likely emerge with the victory.
The Rams and 49ers figure to be battling it out for supremacy in the NFC West when it’s all said and done. Who wins their matchup on Monday Night Football could go a long way in determining who comes out on top in the division. Neither team has looked particularly strong as Matthew Stafford has been unable to get into any kind of groove throwing the football. That’s not likely to improve against the 49ers, who have been arguably the top defense in the league. The Rams will struggle to run against the Niners front which will put a lot on the shoulders of Stafford. The positive for LA is that Cooper Kupp is about as uncoverable of a receiver as there is in the game, no matter how much a team does to take him out of the offense. The 49ers offense has also stalled as the insurance plan of having Jimmy Garoppolo as a backup hasn’t quite cashed in just yet. The strength of the Niners is their ability to run the ball, and work some creative plays around that zone running game. They were struggling to do that without starter Eli Mitchell at running back, and before losing All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. With what has been a shaky interior of their offensive line, Aaron Donald could be poised for another dominant game during prime time. The wild card for San Francisco in this game has to be tight end George Kittle. He’s the one player for the 49ers who should be able to win his individual matchups with regularity. If he’s able to have a vintage type of performance, it would go a long way in helping his team win.
Staying in the NFC West, we’ll see how the Arizona Cardinals can do heading across the country to take on the Carolina Panthers. Arizona has not only struggled on the field, but is now also battling injuries heading into this contest. Who will be available offensively and defensively is still not known as it looks as though multiple players could be game-time decisions on Sunday. Kyler Murray already has a lot of pressure on him, and that will only add to what he’ll need to do to carry the Arizona offense. The Panthers defense has underachieved in some aspects, although they showed up with some big plays in their first win of the season. On offense, Carolina may also be a little thin as Christian McCaffrey looks as though he may be a bit limited with a thigh injury. This is the type of game that McCaffrey could shine in, as the Cardinals aren’t particularly good against the run, or disciplined in their coverage. Add in the fact Arizona will also be without nose tackle Rashard Lawrence and possibly a banged up J.J. Watt, and things could spiral badly for the Cardinals defense. The Panthers would like to get D.J. Moore going a bit with quarterback Baker Mayfield, and this could be the game to do that, if the pass rush for Arizona can’t get home. The cornerbacks for the Cardinals have played well the past two weekends, and the question is whether or not they can continue to do so?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games
– The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Rams are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home
On paper it looks like it’s going to be tough for both the Rams and the Cardinals to find ways to generate offense against good defenses. However, neither of their opponents offenses are looking particularly intimidating at this point either. That makes getting an extra 6 points really attractive in a pair of games we think will come down to the wire. The Cardinals seem like the riskier proposition here, so we’ll know early if the Monday Night game even matters as the second leg of that teaser.
