Previous Week Plays – 3-4
Season Record – 36-35-1
Week 13 Recap:
Recapping week 13 shows us right on the money on a few picks, missing badly on another, and being on the wrong end of the correct handicap a bit. We put a lotta stock into the NY Jets, with three different wagers, and while that read was actually pretty correct, they ended up just 1-2. Overall, the week ended up a disappointing 3-4 as we continue to keep our head just above the .500 mark on the season, and actually down a couple units when juice is factored in. Let’s get our worst loss out of the way early, which was taking the points with the Titans versus the Philadelphia Eagles. It was 7-7 early, and then was all Philadelphia the rest of the way, as they dominated on both sides of the ball. Expecting a similar contest to when the Eagles played the Colts, didn’t pan out at all, as these are two teams clearly on different playing levels at this point. We secured our first win with the Green Bay Packers team total over, as they took advantage of a poor Chicago defense and continued dominance to get there. Moving on that the previously mentioned Jets game, our win there was also their team total over, which got there despite the team settling for 5 field goals in the red zone. Unfortunately, the plus three for the Jets didn’t get there because of the red zone failures. The Jets put up nearly 500 yards, but got stuffed when it counted. Their teaser leg would have come through, except we had it paired with the Ravens, who didn’t get it done. Speaking of not getting it done, we also had them with the Seahawks, so even though 2/3 of our selections hit there, the one loss for both killed both for two losses. Our final handicap was spot on as we had the Bengals beating the Chiefs by a field goal in the high 20’s, which went just to script.
Week 14 Picks:
Our quietest weekend of plays comes in week 14 as we’ve highlighted just one game that we have two plays on, and a two-team teaser bet. There are plenty of matchups that are certainly wagerable, yet not a ton that we’re able to really find much of an edge in versus the spread or total. In a season where we’ve certainly gotten burned by forcing some bets that simply weren’t strong enough to play, maybe this is our way of betting smarter? Or maybe this serves as our internal “bye” week where we rest up and try to get healthy and focused for the stretch run in the season. Either way, it’ll be a slightly less sweaty Sunday afternoon for the BetCrushers this weekend as we hopefully gain just a bit, rather than lose just a bit.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
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Miami Dolphins (8-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)
Sunday December 11th
8:20pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Miami Dolphins -3.0 (-115)
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)
The league has given fans a treat in what could be a potential Sunday Night Football shootout between the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. Not only will we see two pretty potent offenses attacking lesser defenses, we’ll also see a result that could have big impact on the playoff scenario in the crowded AFC. Will one of these defenses be able to slow down the opponents offense, or is this a case of whoever has the football last wins the game?
The more you study the offense of the Miami Dolphins, the more impressive they look. Even against a stout 49ers defense a week ago where they were slightly stymied, they still had their chances and made some plays. Credit head coach Mike McDaniels, who has masterfully figured out how to utilize Tua Tagovailoa as a conductor of this talented offense. The Dolphins have a lot of things working in their favor heading into this meeting with the Chargers, and could receive a big boost if left tackle Terron Armstead can return to the lineup. Although that is still a question mark, what we do know for sure is the Chargers defense is not a very good unit. It’s hard to be critical, as this team has been once again decimated by injuries, both wiping out elite talent and depth at all levels. The Dolphins really didn’t even attempt to run on the 49ers last weekend, and that is a strategy they should look to change against the Chargers. Los Angeles has not been able to stop the run at all this season, allowing almost 5 and a half yards per carry to opposing teams. As long as the Dolphins stay committed to the running game, they’ll move the ball relatively easy in this game. That should put Tua Tagovailoa in a good spot to make some plays in the passing game. In addition to not stopping the run, the Chargers haven’t been great at generating a consistent pass rush either, largely attributed to the loss of Joey Bosa. That also factors into the reason LA has had trouble covering in their secondary, as Asante Samuel, Jr. has struggled, and not gotten a lot of help from others. If that isn’t enough, the Chargers will also be missing starting lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day, cornerback Bryce Callahan and Pro Bowl safety Derwin James. When you’re needing to cover Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and company, that’s not an ideal scenario to be in.
The Chargers did get some positive news on the injury front on offense, as wideout Mike Williams will return back into the starting lineup. The Dolphins have also had some challenges in their secondary, and when Williams and Keenan Allen have both been available for quarterback Justin Herbert, this offense has been really explosive. The experience gained by Joshua Palmer and the reps for tight end Gerald Everett should only help give Herbert options in the passing game. Where the Chargers have really struggled offensively is running the football. As good as Austin Ekeler is as a receiver and at finding the end zone, neither he or anyone else has been able to muster up much running. That is likely to be an issue again versus a Dolphins defense that is pretty sound at stopping the run. At the trade deadline the Dolphins went all in adding linebacker Bradley Chubb to give them a boost with their pass rush. This game is going to be a perfect test to show how impactful that trade could end up being. If Chubb and the Dolphins can get to Herbert, they could ultimately frustrate him, or even force some turnovers. If not, expect Herbert to use the full arsenal of weapons and put a lot of points on the board. The Chargers offensive line has been banged up all year, so it’ll be a big test for them to keep Herbert clean.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Dolphins are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Dolphins
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 home games for the Chargers
This game has an increasing game total now pushing the mid 50’s, and it’s probably still not high enough. This really should be an exciting football game, and it should stay pretty competitive, and or see a Chargers rally to make it competitive. Overall, these teams are fairly similar, except the Dolphins are better coached, and have a little better defense, that is healthier than what the Chargers are putting out right now. Against poor defenses, Tua Tagovailoa has absolutely feasted, and his receivers have to be excited for this matchup. Look for a nice rebound from Miami here and a lot of points. Herbert will keep the Chargers close, but giving just a FG, which has some protection with a push, we’re going to go against the grain and lay some points on the road. Give the Dolphins and over 27.5 points.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins -3 / Miami Dolphins Team Total – Over 27.5
Dolphins 32, Chargers 27
Teaser Bet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) vs. Denver Broncos (3-9)
Sunday December 11th
4:05pm
Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) vs. New York Giants (7-4-1)
Sunday December 11th
1:00pm
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Chiefs -2.5 and Eagles -1
For the second week in a row, the Broncos are 8.5 point underdogs against a powerhouse in the AFC, this time facing off with rival Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In the NFC the Philadelphia Eagles head up the interstate to East Rutherford, NJ, for what is sure to be a hard-hitting divisional matchup of their own against the New York Giants. Divisional battles this season have been low-scoring, with the home teams and underdogs owning a slight advantage as a whole. The Chiefs and Eagles need a win to stay in the race for the top seed in their respective conferences, while the Giants and Broncos are needing a victory for other reasons.
Coming off of a loss to the Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs outwardly don’t appear to be too stressed about where their season is headed. That makes sense as they had opportunities against Cincinnati, and have the softest schedule in the league down the homestretch. Their first test is what could be a tough road matchup against the Denver Broncos in Mile High Stadium. The Broncos offensive woes have been well documented, but this defense continues to show up week after week. Not even injuries or departures like Bradley Chubb have slowed this unit down, and they’ll need to be at their best against Patrick Mahomes and company Sunday. The Chiefs generally matchup pretty well against any defense, but scheme and game plan are going to be more important than normal for Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. It’s no secret that Reid loves to throw the football, yet that isn’t necessarily the best formula to attack the Denver defense. The Broncos have been very good defending the pass this season, and conversely have allowed teams to grind it out on the ground against them. The question mark here is will KC have the patience to run the football without getting frustrated? Flipping to the other side, the Broncos will look to find their way to 20 plus points in this game, something they’ve only done twice this entire season. It’s tough enough beating average teams when your offense only scores 14 points a game, and it’ll be nearly impossible to beat the Chiefs with that kind of production. Denver does have homefield advantage here, and the Chiefs defense has not been as good on the road as they have in Arrowhead Stadium, which should help a bit. The question is, where the heck does the offense come from? If things weren’t bleak enough to begin with, wide receiver Courtland Sutton will miss this contest, further depleting an offense without a ton of explosive talent. If Denver can run the ball a bit with Latavius Murray, they may be able to keep the Chiefs offense off of the field a bit, but will that be enough? Can Jerry Jeudy be a big-time playmaker when he’ll draw so much attention from the Kansas City defense? And of course, the biggest question of all for the Broncos offense is, when the heck is Russell Wilson going to make the plays that he was brought over to make?
The most surprising division in the league has to be the NFC East, as these teams just keep on winning heading through December. The Eagles have largely dominated the Giants in recent seasons, however that’s true of most opponents for New York as they weren’t winning a lot of football games under some questionable leadership. New head coach Brian Daboll has earned the trust of his team and they play hard every week and are still poised to get into the playoffs in the NFC. They’ll have a challenge against the Eagles though, as these teams are in slightly different weight classes at this point. Behind the best offensive line in the league, Jalen Hurts has the Philadelphia offense absolute rolling. That line should be able to move the Giants around a bit as they’re a little soft stopping the run, both inside and outside of the tackles. It doesn’t help New York that Leonard Williams won’t play in this one, which only makes things tougher slowing the Eagles down. Jalen Hurts has looked great as a passer and a rusher, and is a top three MVP candidate, with a real chance to capture that award this season. Not too shabby in what was considered a “make or break” year for the young quarterback. The Giants secondary has played well this season, but without Adoree Jackson at the corner spot, it’s tough to see how they’ll be able to matchup against all of the receivers the Eagles throw out there. You know an offense is rolling when you can lose a player like Dallas Goedert and not even skip a beat. Looking the other direction, the Giants offense has cooled a bit after a fairly fast start to the season. That correlates with running back Saquon Barkley who has been more average the last few weeks after dominating the first half of the season. Barkley is actually questionable heading into this game with a neck sprain, and you have to wonder if they’ll risk putting him out there, or how effective he might be if he does play? The Eagles went through a stretch where they flat out could not stop the run, but recovered just in time to slow down Derrick Henry last week. It’s not a coincidence that big bodied rookie Jordan Davis also returned, helping to anchor things up in the middle. If the Giants can’t get things going on the ground, it could be a long day for their offense. With injuries and departures, their wide receiving corp has been pretty depleted, and it’ll be hard for guys like Darius Slayton to find a lot of room against the Eagles talented cornerbacks. Without a strong tight end or slot presence to work the middle of the field against a thinned out Eagles group there, a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of quarterback Daniel Jones. He’s played pretty well as a whole, and hasn’t been afraid to run it himself to keep the chains moving. The Eagles have speed at the linebacker position though, so Jones could be bottled up from that approach.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the Broncos
– The Broncos are 0-7 straight up in their last 7 home games vs. the Chiefs
– The Eagles are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Giants
– The Eagles are 5-0 straight up in road games in 2022
– The Giants are 0-5-1 straight up in their last 6 games vs. NFC East opponents
As is usually the case when we’re playing a two team teaser, there isn’t a ton of explanation needed after the breakdown. The Chiefs and Eagles are the cream of the crop in the NFL, while the Broncos are a bit of a mess, and the Giants aren’t quite there yet. We’re taking two of the top teams and quarterbacks, essentially just needing to win, even if it is on the road. It’s fair to point out the Broncos spoiled our teaser last week as the Ravens did win, but didn’t cover the -2.5, so that’s always a possibility, but Mahomes and company have proven a little more reliable than Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Eagles have really done well against the Giants, and New York has some big injury concerns. There are a handful of teaser options this weekend, but this is our favorite, despite the road trips for the favorites.
