Championship Round Preview:

The Final four in the NFL is set with a pair of familiar faces and a couple of new entrants to the party. The AFC features the Chiefs making their remarkable seventh consecutive visit to this stage of the season under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’ll face off against the team that has been their biggest rival during the Mahomes era when the Buffalo Bills head to Arrowhead.. In the NFC, the upstart Washington Commanders find themselves one game away from the Super Bowl, and will travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles who handled the Rams in a raucous home victory in the divisional round. The home teams and open as favorites, but these games are anything but slam dunks for the heavyweights. There are some different betting ways to play these teams, our thoughts are below.

NFC Championship Game

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

vs.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

Cinderella has officially reached the final four of the NFL season as the Washington Commanders will visit the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC.  The teams split during the regular season, and the third battle will vault the winner directly to the Super Bowl.  Can the magical run of Jayden Daniels continue, or will the favored Eagles take care of business at home?

THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS ON OFFENSE:

There are a lot of people, both wise and not so wise who are already crowning Jayden Daniels as the best rookie quarterback ever.  We won’t weigh in on that topic yet, but what he has done for that offense and organization is pretty awesome.  Of course the kudos have to start with Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury who changed not only the scheme, but the culture of this team.  Kingsbury seems to understand what buttons to push with Daniels, and the poise that the youngster shows in pressure situations is pretty remarkable.  In their last matchup with the Eagles, Daniels took what the defense gave him early, and made big plays when needed.  He’ll need to repeat that and maybe then some if he wants to pull of the road upset here.  There is some good news for Washington in the fact they may have a little bit of success running the football.  The Eagles run defense was pretty stout, however they’ve looked less rigid without linebacker Nakobe Dean in the lineup.  Don’t expect a huge game from Brian Robinson, Jr., but he should be able to do enough to at least keep Washington two-dimensional.  We could also see an increased workload fo Austin Ekeler who garnered more snaps each week since returning from injury.  His work might come more in the pass game if Daniels is patient.  The Commanders offensive line, particularly on the interior will have their hands full with Jalen Carter and the Eagles defensive line, which makes the injury status of Sam Cosmi something to watch.  Carter and that front will make some plays, but if the Commanders can keep them from making the “game-wrecking” type plays, mainly sacks and fumbles, Washington will have a chance. On the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles, the injury of note to watch is rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell who left last week’s game and was limited mid-week in practice.  He’s been one of the top corners in the league, and if he isn’t up to speed that would be a big boost to the Commanders.  They’ll of course be trying to get the ball to Terry McLaurin, and Dyami Brown, who has emerged as a favorable target the last few weeks.  The biggest weapon for Washington, and their hope for the win, rests on the legs of Jayden Daniels.  Since he returned from a mid season injury, he’s been the most effective and impactful scrambler in the league.  This is both with expected runs and on not designed scrambles.  He really needs to be Superman for Washington to win.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:

The Eagles offense has some question marks heading into this ballgame, primarily the health of quarterback Jalen Hurts.  After taking an awkward hit last week, he looked pretty stiff, and it’s hard to know how that will fair during the game.  He logged some limited practice and says he’s ok, but if he’s limited in his running, it could impact the offense a bit.  Of course we know this offense now goes through the offensive line and running back Saquon Barkley, who should do well again.  With a prop line over/under of over 130 yards, it’s almost guaranteed he’s going to feast at some point in this game.  The Commanders run defense is in the bottom third of the league, which does not bode well for them.  Of course, if they don’t have to worry about Hurts scrambling, or running read options, that could help a bit.  The other things to watch for the Eagles are center Cam Jurgens who has a back injury, and tight end Dallas Goedert who’s still nursing various ankle injuries.  While these aren’t necessarily what you’d consider major injuries, every little bit can make a difference.  Realistically, this will come down to whether or not the Commanders can keep Saquon Barkley to a manageable performance, and whether or not Jalen Hurts can make throws when he needs to.  A.J. Brown has disappeared over recent weeks, which is partly game plan and script, but is their more to it than that?  Is his knee ok?  How about the chemistry with Jalen Hurts?  It just feels like as much as the offense can ride Saquon Barkley, they’re going to need some contributions somewhere along the way from Hurts and Brown.  The Commanders defense isn’t necessarily intimidating, but they do have some solid veterans who should play well under the bright lights Sunday.

KEY STATS:
– The Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Commanders have won 7 games in a row straight up
– The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Eagles are 9-0 straight up at home this season
– The Eagles and Commanders split their divisional series this season

THE SKINNY:
This line is priced a little interestingly, but seems to be about right when you factor in everything.  It seems like there isn’t too much concern regarding the availability of Hurts and possibly some of the other Eagles.  We didn’t discuss coaching much in the breakdown, and it’s going to be interesting to watch the chess match between Kliff Kingsbury and Vic Fangio when Washington is on offense.  The Eagles are probably the most talented roster in the league top to bottom, and they should win this game.  There’s a chance they could blowout the overachieving Commanders, but it doesn’t seem as though that would be the case.  These are division opponents who know each other well, and have each done a lot to get to this point already.  The key here for Washington to steal a win seems to be getting up early on the Eagles.  For much of the season, the Eagles were a slow starting team, but often able to overcome that.  If they start slow and Washington can get up early, it could spell trouble.  The Eagles need to feed Saquon Barkley, and not put the game in the hands of Jalen Hurts.  If they can get an early lead, they should be able to ride Barkley all the way to New Orleans.  Washington is a popular dog, but it really does make sense as this line just seems a tick too high.  Unless the Eagles get out to a big early lead, expect this game to stay competitive.  It’s hard to see the Eagles losing, but in betting, losing and covering are two different things.

BetCrushers Lean: Washington Commanders +6
Philadelphia Eagles 24 , Washington Commanders 20

AFC Championship Game

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)

We’re starting to see a Brady vs. Manning repeat in the AFC between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.  In reality, there is a whole lot more to this game than just the two headlining quarterbacks when the Bills head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs.  Could this finally be Josh Allen and the Bills breaking through, like Peyton Manning did after a few attempts against Brady?  Or will the peaking Chiefs have a shot at being the first team in the modern era to win 3 Super Bowls in a row?

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

The Buffalo Bills have been a little bit of a chameleon on offense recently, as offensive coordinator Joe Brady is adjusting his game plans weekly.  What will he have in store for round two against the Kansas City Chiefs?  The Bills will undoubtedly look to establish the running game with James Cook and their other running backs, as it seems they want to be a bit safe, and potentially protect a defense that can be vulnerable on the other side of the ball.  Buffalo seems intent on really playing around the line of scrimmage to give themselves manageable third down situations.  It worked for them last week in getting a win, however you could argue the offensive gameplan could have cost them.  Quarterback Josh Allen is more than capable of converting third downs, but if you consistently put your team in that scenario, things really have to go right, and against a good defense in Kansas City.  That seems like the most likely plan though, as they really stuck with the run even against the vaunted Ravens run defense.  The Chiefs have been solid against the run all year and it’ll be a true fight in the trenches with Buffalo’s underrated offensive line, and the Chiefs stout front seven.  The Chiefs got a bit of a boost in the secondary getting cornerback Jaylen Watson back, which may afford them some more flexible on the back end.  Don’t be shocked to see cornerback Trent McDuffie travel a bit with Khalil Shakir, who is not only Josh Allen’s top target, but the only true separator they have at the receiver position.  We haven’t seen Amari Cooper in the gameplan at all the last few weeks, but this could be a game where he re-emerges a bit, if the Bills need to throw.  Cooper is a veteran who can make plays when his number is called.  The real players to watch in the passing game for the Bills could be tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.  The Chiefs have been pretty terrible covering opposing tight ends all season, and Knox has become more involved as the year has gone on.  After a quiet end to the season, Kincaid could see a lot of short targets.  Finally, we know Josh Allen isn’t afraid to run it in important situations, and against a team he has some familiarity with, and with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, don’t be surprised if he runs even more than many already expect him to do.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

The Chiefs offensive approach is likely to be the opposite of the Bills, although they can also mix things up when they desire.  Kansas City essentially has their most complete arsenal of talent on offense they’ve had together all year, and Patrick Mahomes has been playing better as a result.  The reason their approach is probably going to be different is Andy Reid is going to ride or die with Mahomes in a must-win situation, and no one can blame him for that.  Sure, we’ll see a split with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, and if the Chiefs can have success running it, they may continue.  But more than likely, they’re going to put the ball into Mahomes hands and tell him to make plays and win the game.  Like his counterpart Allen, that could also include his legs, which he puts to use more in the postseason as well.  There are a lot of good side matchups between the KC offense and Buffalo defense, primarily on the edges.  The Bills best pressure rushers are Greg Rousseau and they hope Von Miller, who was originally brought to this roster for a game like this one.  With Joe Thuney moving to left tackle for the Chiefs, their offensive line is still good, but probably not great.  Can Thuney and Jawaan Taylor hold up against the pressure, and who wins the battle on the interior?  The Bills defense often seems to go with defensive tackle Ed Oliver.  When he’s making plays, they tend to do well.  When he’s neutralized, the defense can sometimes get overpowered.  At receiver, keep an eye on the status of starting cornerback Christian Benford, who is in concussion protocol.  Expect him to play, but if for whatever reason he doesn’t that would be a huge blow to the defense.  Buffalo will already probably be missing starting safety Taylor Rapp, and in a game against Travis Kelce, that’s not ideal.  He’s also one of the physical hitters on the defense.  Rookie Cole Bishop has gotten some snaps this season, and was a second round pick, but the Bills would certainly prefer to have the experience of Rapp if possible.  The good news for the team is, it looks like linebacker Matt Milano will be able to go, as he was nursing a hamstring injury.  After a slow start coming off of injured reserve, Milano has looked much better in the playoffs.  Ultimately, the individual matchups will be fun to watch, but on this side of the ball, it really comes down to what kind of magic Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes can come up with to involve Kelce and their receivers, and what kind of plan Sean McDermott has to stop them.  They’ve done fine in the regular season against Kansas City, but in the playoffs the Chiefs have carved up this defense pretty easily.  

KEY STATS:
– The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Bills and Chiefs are 5-5 straight up against each other in their last 10 games
– The Chiefs are 3-0 straight up against the Bills in the playoffs since 2019
– The The Bills are 4-2 ATS vs. the Chiefs in their last 6 games

If you follow the BetCrushers, you may know we’re Bills Mafia all the way, which generally has helped us in wagering for or against them as we’re able to keep personal bias out.  Call this one an emotional hedge that we hope to be wrong about, but until they prove they can beat Reid and the Chiefs in the playoffs, we simply cannot back them.  A week ago, you can certainly make the argument the Ravens were the better team, but the Bills found a way to win.  In this week’s contest, it’s fair to say the Bills have the better overall team, but the Chiefs just know how to get it done when it matters the most.  We’re not going to mention anything about refereeing, but the homefield advantage of noise and incidentals also gives a slight edge to Kansas City.  This is how we’ll simplify this handicap:  It’s not necessarily the talent of the Chiefs that Buffalo has to try to overcome, it’s more so the mental aspect of it.  And with that comes coaching.  This has been Sean McDermott’s best season as a head coach overall, and OC Joe Brady has also been great.  But they simply get too tight in the playoffs.  Look no further than last weekend against the Ravens, a game they probably should have lost.  They got way too conservative in the second half on both offense and defense.  Sure they won, but can that happen two weeks in a row?  Mahomes and the Chiefs are probably not turning it over three times, and if they don’t they’ll most likely win the game.  Andy Reid is going to put the ball in his best player’s hand and tell him to go get it done.  Steve Spagnuolo won’t be afraid to blitz or change what he’s done in the past.  The Bills are less likely to give Josh Allen full reign to go win the game, and more so expect him to win it on third downs, and critical moments.  While he certainly can, this conservative approach has bit them in the past and will probably do it again.  It should be another close game between these two, but you have to give the edge to the team that’s been there and done that.  

BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs 29, Buffalo Bills 26

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

With only a pair of games, the betting is a bit slim, but we definitely are going to be placing some wagers. Below is what we’re putting our money on the line with. These both have the potential to be great games, so enjoy them. Best of luck with all of your wagers, we’ll see you for a Super Bowl preview soon!