ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams +125
San Francisco 49ers +150
Arizona Cardinals +400
Seattle Seahawks +1800
Many believed the NFC West was the best division in football a season ago, and they responded by submitting three teams into the postseason. Things look similar heading into this year, with the exception of a big QB change in Seattle, and what now looks like a “possible” quarterback move in San Francisco. The reigning Super Bowl champions in Los Angeles look to duplicate their successes, while in Arizona optimism is high after a rocky offseason. The NFC West is still a tough division, although it appears the title of top group now resides in the AFC West. Even with that being the case, there’s a very good chance the winner of the conference will once again come from one of these four teams.
San Francisco 49ers
2021 Record – 10-7
2021 Record Against the Spread – 12-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Oren Burks, (LB) Drake Jackson
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Arden Key, (OG) Laken Tomlinson, (CB) K’Waun Williams
You’ve got to hand it to 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan for putting together a scheme that just seems to work, even when opposing teams know it’s coming. His run-centric offensive gameplan, coupled with an aggressive defense might sound like a throwback of sorts in the modern day NFL. Realistically though, the diversity of the playbook on both sides is what helps to keep the offense fresh and clicking, and putting defensive playmakers in position to make big plays. All signs pointed to a transition at the QB position with Trey Lance being named the starter before training camp, yet here we are a little over a week from the start of the season and Jimmy Garoppolo is not only still on the roster, he’s the highest paid backup quarterback in the league.
We may as well start with the obvious, and continue the conversation regarding quarterback as we take a look at the offense. Second year man Trey Lance was handed the keys to the offense, which gives the Niners’ more options because of his athleticism at the position. What the team sacrifices is a veteran understanding of the position, and experience working with the players already there on offense. It goes without saying that the team elected to not move former starter Jimmy Garoppolo, leading to speculation Lance may not be ready, or the answer in San Francisco. While that is definitely a nice option to have in the back pocket, one has to wonder what kind of effect will that have on Lance’s development? If he struggles, how quickly would they elect to pull the chord and insert the more proven Garoppolo? The truth is, we may never get that answer if the 49ers can execute their offense the way they really would like to from the beginning, which is running the ball. The best news of the offseason is the team was able to secure the talents of Deebo Samuel, the piece of the offense that really makes it tick. Whether he’s lined up out wide or in the backfield, he draws a crowd and still manages to make things happen. As importantly, he really makes things easier for tight end George Kittle and the player they really hope emerges this year, wide receiver Brando Auyik. San Fancisco also has the luxury of having do-it all Pro Bowl fullback Kyle Juszcyk, and two really good tackles in Mike McGlinchey and Trent Williams. The latter earning the honor of the consensus top left tackle in the league last year. If there’s a concern on the offense beyond the quarterback position, it would have to be the interior of the offensive line. The departure of Laken Tomlinson in free agency makes them a little shakier up the middle. Overall though, they should be able to work through any challenges there if they have strong play from the McGlinchey and Williams on the exterior.
Defensively, this group is loaded in their front seven and will be solid against the run and be able to rush the passer. They were a top ten unit despite battling some injuries, and should finish inside that window again. They added rookie Drake Jackson to help with their edge rotation, and their starting front four, with three former first round picks, is one of the best in the league. As great as their defensive line is, they are equally strong with their starting linebackers, paced by Fred Warner who is healthy and due for what will be another strong season. The questions on defense really rest in the secondary, where they have some experience, but really just marginal talent. As long as the front seven is getting it done, they’ll be able to get by with veterans Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward on the corners. Safety is an even bigger concern as Jimmie Ward is banged up to open the season, and there isn’t much to back him up.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 19th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
How many times do we have to talk about “when you have two quarterbacks, you have none”? The only thing potentially holding this team back is the sudden conundrum at the quarterback position. When you look at their schedule, this team really needs to split with the Rams and Cardinals. If they do that, they should be just fine for a playoff spot and will have a chance at taking the division. The NFC West came down to the wire last season between these Niners and the Rams, and very well could again in 2022.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
When you check the box scores at the end of this season there is a strong possibility the Niners will have played in a lot of close games, both in wins and losses. Look for opportunities to tease them under a FG as a favorite or over a touchdown getting points and you should find some good success.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Elijah Mitchell (RB), 49ers (DST)
It’s always tricky to trust a 49ers running back as they like to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup. Additionally, Eli Mitchell enters the season missing the entire preseason with a hamstring injury. He should be ready to go in week one, and by default benefit from the running scheme of San Francisco. He’s undervalued heading into the year, so grab him for a big potential return. We mentioned the potential pass rush of this team, so expect a lot of sacks and interceptions for the defense.
Arizona Cardinals
2021 Record – 11-6
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Marquise Brown, (OG) Will Hernandez, (TE) Trey McBride
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Chandler Jones, (LB) Jordan Hicks, (RB) Chase Edmonds, (WR) Christian Kirk
Is it a coincidental trend, or something more, when a team starts the season red-hot before fizzling out down the stretch? That’s been the story of the Arizona Cardinals with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray leading the charge. The team rewarded Kyler Murray with a huge new contract, albeit it without some controversy regarding the verbiage of the deal. While it’s pretty clear the team is committed to Murray as the quarterback of the team, the same may not be able to be said about the head coach. This team has some talented pieces individually, it’s whether or not they can piece it together collectively that remains to be seen.
In one of the more interesting tidbits from preseason football, Kliff Kingsbury had Kyler Murray calling plays on the sideline as an offensive coordinator. Who really knows how deep anyone should read into this, but that sure seems like a kind of telling sign of the head coach and quarterback relationship? Whether it’s a big deal or no deal at all, the Cardinals offense stalled down the stretch a year ago and looked completely inept in their Wild Card playoff loss. Murray is one of the most talented players in the league, yet it seems that either he, or the team, struggle to consistently move the chains. The offensive line has some fairly well-known names that they’ve pieced together from around the league including newcomer Will Hernandez. They really need this group to come together and play better than they did a year ago, particularly in their pass blocking. James Conner is now fully the man at the running back position as he’ll look to replicate what was a really productive bounce-back season in 2021 for him. Zach Ertz is another year older at tight end, however he should still have enough left to still be one of the better guys at that position and be productive. The wide receiver room is where things get really interesting. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games, and Murray hasn’t looked great with D-Hop not on the field. They made a necessary trade bringing Marquise Brown over from the Ravens, and his familiarity playing with a scrambling quarterback could help him lead this group. Veteran A.J. Green is still listed as a starter and provides some nice experience, however they have to find a way to get Rondale Moore onto the field. He has the talent to really be a playmaker if they can get him in favorable matchups and the ball in his hands.
The defense is now guided by J.J. Watt and Budda Baker, both of whom can still play at a high level. In Watt’s case, he simply needs to stay on the field, something he has certainly struggled with the past few seasons. The team invested early draft pics in linebackers Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins the past two years, and both need to become bigger forces if this defense really wants to excel. Cornerbacks Marco Wilson and Bryon Murphy, Jr. are reliable players, if not spectacular, and edge rusher Markus Golden would also fit that description. Last year the Cardinals gave up over 4.6 yards per carry to running backs, and didn’t really do much to address that problem. For this reason, they seem more equipped to win shootouts, than they might win a grind it out type of game.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 9th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -115, under -105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
Kyler Murray has a lot of pressure on him heading into this season. On paper, this Cardinals roster has some pretty impressive names on it. For some reason, it’s easy to want to root for this team to succeed. Unfortunately, when you really do the math, it’s going to be really difficult for this team to find a way into the playoff race. The luster of Kliff Kingsbury is seeming to wear off quickly, and if the Cardinals struggle, Kingsbury could be in some trouble.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
There are two wagers that are pretty consistent when it comes to player props with the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray rushing TDs are as close to a sure thing as there is as he’s near a lock to have one each week. James Conner is also going to get a lot of work so looking at his carries and yards against poor run defenses should be successful.
Fantasy Players To Watch – James Conner (RB)
Rondale Moore is the player we’re keeping tabs on, but there just isn’t the consistency there at this point to really take him seriously. Mentioning him as a prop bet option above, James Conner should get a lot of work as a featured RB1. He’s also tough to stop around the goal line making him appealing from that standpoint alone. If he stays healthy, he’ll finish the season as one of the top producing RBs in the league.
Los Angeles Rams
2021 Record – 12-5
2021 Record Against the Spread – 10-11
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Allen Robinson II, (LB) Bobby Wagner, (OG) Logan Bruss
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Von Miller, (OG) Austin Corbett, (DT) Sebastian Joseph-Day, (WR) Odell Beckham, Jr., (OT) Andrew Whitworth
Every year in all of the major sports we seem to see a team go all-in with the aspirations of winning their respective championship. The Rams essentially did that a year ago when they acquired Matthew Stafford and other veteran stars for a chance to capture the Lombadri Trophy, and it just so happened to work. While they weren’t able to re-tool through the draft, they were smart again in free agency, and still look like they’ll have at least a chance to get back to the big game in 2022. Repeating as champs in the NFL is extremely difficult, and that won’t be any different for head coach Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams.
It was pretty obvious that Sean McVay hadn’t lost it as an offensive mind, he was just somewhat limited with Jared Goff. He turned the keys over to Stafford early, and although it wasn’t always perfect it worked. The chemistry that Stafford had with Cooper Kupp was truly an elite connection, and those two should flourish yet again. Kupp is one of the few wide receivers in the league that is truly un-guardable. The team won’t have Robert Woods or Odell Beckham, Jr. on the roster this year, but it’s not a stretch to say that they could be even better with the addition of Allen Robinson II. That is a huge “if”, as Robinson has never really put it all together, and hasn’t stayed healthy over the past three seasons. If he can get in sync with Stafford, it’ll be really tough to defend he and Kupp. Tight end Tyler Higbee would likely also benefit from a healthy and effective Robinson. Of course all of the passing game is predicated on whether or not Matthew Stafford is healthy in his own right. The Rams claim Stafford is ready to go despite what was described as severe elbow tendinitis. Without a quality backup this definitely merits paying close attention to. The last piece of the puzzle on the offense is a slightly different offensive line that will also play an important role of the overall success of the team. Andrew Whitworth finally retired and Austin Corbett moved on in free agency. Joe Noteboom filled in admirably when Whitworth was injured and he’s the key to their overall success. If he’s the type of player we saw in limited action, they’ll be just fine. If he’s a backup playing as a starter, it will have an impact on the running game and the protection for Stafford.
As was the case a season ago, the Rams are a very top-heavy defense. We’ve heard it described as a “stars and scrubs” defense, which probably isn’t that far from the truth. They will once again be led by future Canton legends Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. (Yes, Ramsey is a little premature). They also brought over another future Hall of Famer securing division rival Bobby Wagner to play middle linebacker. Beyond that, the team has some mediocre talent with guys like Leonard Floyd, Taylor Rapp and Troy Hill, and are hopeful guys like Ernest Jones and Justin Hollins can benefit from being surrounded by the heavy hitters. Additionally, this is definitely one of the thinnest defensive units in the league so they absolutely have to stay healthy.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 2nd Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over +105, under -125)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The Rams season is ultimately going to hinge on Matthew Stafford’s ability to play from start to finish. If he does, this team will be right back in the mix in the NFC fighting for a playoff spot and the division. One thing that is also worth pointing out is that McVay’s coaching tree was depleted leaving several new faces there. Let’s see early on in the season how focused this team is, and if there is any hangover from last year’s Super Bowl.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
Both the Rams from a season ago, and Matthew Stafford throughout his career have played in a lot of really close ballgames. The Rams will definitely be a team to chase the right number with and give yourself the extra 6 points.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Allen Robinson II (WR)
Taking a victory lap from a season ago we had listed Cooper Kupp as a must draft at the wide receiver position. Kupp will undoubtedly have another big season, however it’s Allen Robinson that we want to get on our team. He’s going to see a lot of single and zone coverage, and this is his opportunity to prove that he can be a premier receiver in the league. He’s a gamble, and one we’re prepared to take.
Seattle Seahawks
2021 Record – 7-10
2021 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(TE) Noah Fant, (QB) Drew Lock, (DT) Shelby Harris, (OT) Charles Cross
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Russell Wilson, (RB) Chris Carson, (LB) Bobby Wagner, (TE) Gerald Everett, (CB) D.J. Reed
The Seattle Seahawks are starting over, after franchise leader Russell Wilson was shipped to Denver in a move that showed the business side of sports. Head coach Pete Carroll never really had to rebuild much at USC, he simply restocked during his tenure in the Pac-10. He adamantly denies the Seahawks are in a rebuilding mode, and in reality, it’s more a transitional mode than a rebuild. The problem with the Seahawks as they’re currently structured is they seem to be in the middle of competing and rebuilding, with a unique blend of players scattered across the roster. This could be Pete Carroll’s final season if things don’t go well and they opt for a full housecleaning in the next offseason.
Things aren’t completely bleak offensively where the Seahawks triplets of Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf ranks pretty highly compared to other teams in the league. Keeping and extending Metcalf was a move they had to make regardless of how this season plays out. They also added tight end Noah Fant in the Wilson trade, giving them another nice weapon in the passing game. They used their top draft pick on left tackle Charles Cross, who they hope can anchor the offensive line for years to come. This is an offensive line that struggled more often than not in pass protection the past two seasons. As is the case with many of the weaker offensive lines in the league, they are much better run blockers than pass blockers. Despite the quality pieces listed at the skill positions, there is going to be a substantial drop off going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith. The former backup to Wilson beat out Drew Lock to earn the starting nod, and he’s definitely the safer bet to begin the season. Smith is what he is, an experienced quarterback who knows the team and the system. The problem is when he was called on to play, the team couldn’t get over the hump and come away with victories. He can be a serviceable guy if he’s surrounded by a really good team, the problem is, what we’re going to examine now with their defense.
If you’re not a Seahawks fan, or a hardcore NFL fan, you’ll struggle to name anyone in their front seven. This defense was not great a year ago, and looks like it will probably be even worse this year. They’re going to struggle to rush the quarterback, which is a near death sentence in the modern NFL. They have some hitters at safety with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, although Adams has basically been relegated to a glorified linebacker blitzing. This is both to make up for their poor pass rush, and also because Adams has proven to be a liability in pass coverage. Their corners should realistically be more of backups in the league and not starters. And that’s with Sidney Jones exceeding expectations. They’ll of course benefit from the 12th man at home if they can get the crowd there, but it’s going to be a tough season for this defense.
2022 Strength of Schedule – 11th Hardest – Based on Vegas Projected Win Totals (SharpFootball)
Team Win Total Odds – 5.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-13
It feels wrong to predict a team in the league to only win 4 football games, particularly one that’s been competitive for so long. It’s simply asking too much to expect Geno Smith to be able to carry this team the way that Russell Wilson did for so many years. Even if the offense can put up some points, the defense is really going to struggle to hold up against the better passing teams in the league. Looking up and down the schedule, this seems like a 6 win maximum team, with that stretching it. They’ll steal a few wins along the way, but it’s going to be a really difficult year in the PNW.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
You probably picked up on the fact we’re not super high on Geno Smith or the Seahawks as a whole. No one was impacted more than Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, two guys who flourished with Russell Wilson. Because they’re well regarded and proven players, their early season yardage totals should be relatively high. Take advantage of that by betting their unders, specifically if they’re playing a team that can rush the passer.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Noah Fant (TE)
The best option on the Seahawks is actually Rashaad Penny, we’re just concerned that he may not get a lot of work if the team is trailing a lot during the season. The guy that no one is really talking about is tight end Noah Fant. He’ll benefit from the attention that is given to wideouts Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, and be a reliable target for a non risk-taking quarterback. He could be a nice weekly DFS play at a value, or grab him at the end of your season drafts.
