ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles -135
Dallas Cowboys +190
New York Giants +850
Washington Commanders +1600
If you’re not excited overall about the prospects of football in the National Football Conference, allow us to sell you a bit on the NFC East. Not only does the east boast the team that was a couple of minutes and a couple of plays away from winning the Super Bowl a year ago, but the teams around them should be improved heading into the 2023 season. No teams exhibit a fiercer rivalry than the teams in the East (apologies to the Ravens-Steelers), who have battled each other for decades, constantly bloodying each other up. Expect a whole lot more of that as the Cowboys look to dethrone the Eagles, with the Giants and Commanders both believing they have enough talent to compete and win as well. A season ago the Eagles cruised to an early lead and rode that all the way, but don’t be shocked if this year’s winner of the division isn’t crowned until the final week(s) of the season.
Dallas Cowboys
2022 Record – 12-5
2022 Record Against the Spread – 10-7
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Brandin Cooks, (CB) Stephon Gilmore, (OT) Tyler Smith, (DT) Mazi Smith
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(RB) Ezekiel Elliott, (TE) Dalton Schultz, (OG) Conner McGovern, (WR) Noah Brown
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Dallas Cowboys were able to reach the playoffs for the second consecutive season in 2022 for the first time in seventeen years, as they secured 12 wins and were one of the more balanced teams in the league. Dallas was a top ten group on offense and defense, and head coach Mike McCarthy silenced some criticism with a second straight strong year. The Cowboys dealt Tom Brady the final loss of his career in the first round of the playoffs before losing a slugfest against the San Francisco 49ers. The team boasted 3 All-Pro players, and had a total of 8 players named to the Pro Bowl, showcasing one of the more talented rosters in the league.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #5
Expectations are once again sky high in Dallas as the Cowboys enter the season with sights on a deep playoff run. The offense will look a little different with the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the arrival of Brian Schottenheimer. Mix in head coach Mike McCarthy calling plays and there is guaranteed to be some excitement on the offensive side of the ball. It remains to be seen if we’ll see an improvement or a regression from a unit that finished fourth in scoring in 2022. What we do know is the Cowboys offensive success will start with their big guys upfront, and this group should be a strength again. That is, if they can stay healthy. The starting five is one of the best offensive lines in the league, however they have little depth behind the starters. That is worth watching as All-Pro right guard Zack Martin is unhappy with his current contract situation. As of the start of training camp, Martin has yet to show up, and it’s an honest unknown whether he will play this season or not. History tells us he’ll probably show up at some point, but then you wonder where his head is, and how in-shape he might be? These are questions without an answer at the moment, so let’s start with what we know. Quarterback Dak Prescott is excited to lead an offense that has a legitimate trio at the wide receiver position. In addition to Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb, and a now healthy Michael Gallup, the Cowboys welcome free agent Brandin Cooks to the roster. Although he’s getting up there in age, Cooks could still provide the vertical threat that seemed missing at times a season ago. If he can, look for an even bigger year from CeeDee Lamb as teams will have to account for the deep ball. At running back, for the first time since 2016, we will not see Ezekiel Elliott starting in the backfield. The Cowboys are going all in on Tony Pollard, and need his explosive production to continue as the lead back. Much like the offensive line, there isn’t a ton of proven depth behind Pollard, so his health is also a big priority. There’s also a change at the tight end position, as Dalton Schultz bolted across town, and Dallas is going with rookie Jake Ferguson and second year man Peyton Hendershot. Prescott has always thrown heavily to the tight ends, so the development of the young players will be important. And on the topic of quarterback Dak Prescott, you kind of get the feeling this is a really important year for him. After turning the ball over way too much in 2022, Prescott really needs to cut back on the mistakes, while being careful to not be too cautious.
The 2022 version of the Dallas Cowboy defense proved that their performance in 2021 was no fluke, as they actually improved and were one of the best in the league. Led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has constructed one of the most versatile units we’ve seen in the history of the franchise. They didn’t necessarily need a ton of help, however Jerry Jones boosted this already sound group with a couple of key acquisitions in the offseason. The prize comes at cornerback, where veteran Stephon Gilmore will line up opposite Trevon Diggs, giving the Cowboys a pair of playmakers on the outside. Additionally, the team added some beef to their interior defensive line rotation by drafting Mazi Smith out of Michigan with their first round pick. With players like pass rusher Dante Fowler, Jr., Chauncey Golston, Malik Hooker and DaRon Bland in backup roles, this defensive unit is also extremely deep. There is no reason to expect any significant falloff from this Cowboys defense in 2023.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 12th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
Originally it felt like maybe this Cowboys team had peaked a bit and they’d take a step backwards with some coaching and personnel changes. During the offseason we’ve warmed back up a bit when you really break down what they’re working with. They’re pretty solid across the board, and in have a lot of veterans on both sides of the ball. Can Dak Prescott take care of the football and can Tony Pollard still be explosive in a featured back role? In the soft NFC, the Cowboys should absolutely find themselves back in the playoffs, they just haven’t done quite enough to catch the Eagles.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Team Totals
The Cowboys were one of the top teams against the spread in 2021, and for that reason we’re looking at a regression back to the mean this season. We’ll be looking to fade the Cowboys, particularly on the road to start the season, until they prove they belong in the upper tier of teams. Additionally, for a team that is regarded as a high-powered offense, keep an eye on going under their team total if the passing game or offense sputter early in the season. There is always money to be made with the Cowboys.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Tony Pollard (RB), Brandin Cooks (WR)
Tony Pollard is an obvious early running back selection, as the explosive running back should see an uptick in carries and receptions with the departure of Ezekiel Elliott. We’ve seen some backs who assume the lead role struggle, but Pollard should be a solid producer throughout the season if he can sustain the hits. Brandin Cooks is an intriguing late round value type pick. With CeeDee Lamb receiving a lot of attention from defenses, Cooks could be the vertical threat the Cowboys were sometimes missing a season ago.
Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Record – 14-3
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(RB) Rashaad Penny, (S) Anthony Harris, (QB) Marcus Mariota, (CB) Greedy Williams, (S) Terrell Edmunds, (S) Justin Evans, (DT) Jalen Carter, (LB) Nolan Smith, (RB) D’Andre Swift
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DT) Javon Hargave, (S) Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, (OG) Isaac Seumalo, (RB) Miles Sanders, (S) Marcus Epps, (LB) Kyzir White, (LB) T.J. Edwards
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Things move quickly in the National Football League, and for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts that proved accurate. Hurts entered the 2022 season as a big question mark, and established early on that he wanted to put that discussion to rest. Behind a much improved Hurts, who benefited from the draft day acquisition of wide receiver A.J. Brown, the Eagles catapulted all the way to a Super Bowl appearance, and near victory. The team finished 3rd in overall offensive EPA and 4th in defensive EPA, and the team had a swagger reminiscent of the Buddy Ryan Eagles of years ago. A couple of bad breaks in Super Bowl LVII resulted in a tough loss to finish the season, however the Eagles re-established themselves as the class of the NFC.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #1
If you followed the BetCrushers during the 2022 season, you’ll know we were high on this Philadelphia Eagles time from preseason, and rode them to profitability with wagers throughout the year. The Eagles aren’t sneaking up on anyone any longer, but that doesn’t mean this team won’t still have a legitimate chance to find their way to Glendale and a repeat Super Bowl appearance. Head coach Nick Sirianni begins a new season with new coordinators on both sides of the ball as Brian Johnson steps in to orchestrate the offense, and Sean Desai takes over the defense. While there is sure to be a learning curve for both, it certainly helps having veterans and stars across the depth chart. Offensively, the Eagles boast the consensus top offensive line in the league, a collection that can both run and pass block with dominance. On the running front, quarterback Jalen Hurts proved he isn’t just an athletic quarterback, as he took advantage of the great pass protection and vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. A confident Hurts should only have even greater command of the offense, and more freedom to create plays. The Eagles are loaded at the running back position as a quartet of D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Look for the team to lean on the hot hand, and roll with whichever back is having the most success week to week. When they want to air things out, they’ll lean on the trio of A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Brown and Smith each topped 1,000 yards, and both are anticipated to top that mark again this season. As long as this offense stays healthy, they’ll finish in the top five again, and have a realistic shot to lead the league.
The offense in Philly doesn’t need to shoulder the burden in order for the team to make another deep playoff run. The defense is coming off of their own very strong season that saw them perform as the second or third best group in the NFC. Before Eagle fans get too excited though, we do need to mention they played one of the softer offensive opponent schedules we’ve seen in recent memory. Things will get substantially harder this year, so we’ll get a true glimpse at just how good this defense really is. The offseason was kind for the Birds, as veteran mainstays Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are going to run it back one more time, giving the team not only leadership and experience, but a lot of depth. The dominant University of Georgia defense that terrorized college football, is looking to make that leap to the big leagues. Jalen Carter could end up being the steal of the draft, as he fell right in the lap of Howie Roseman on draft night. Alongside fellow UGA product Jordan Davis, the interior should be sound for the next few years. Hasson Reddick will once again be asked to carry the load on the pass rush, as he looks to duplicate his phenomenal 2022 campaign. The secondary is deep at the corner position, headlined by James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who somehow the team managed to keep together. The player they’re really hoping can step up is 2nd year middle linebacker Nakobe Dean. He struggled in his rookie season, and early prognosis is he is still shaky at best heading into year number two. That could explain Philly bringing in veterans Myles Jack and Zack Cunningham as a safety net, in case Dean can’t figure it out. The other player they’ll be relying in is free safety Reed Blankenship, who filled in admirably a year ago. Blankenship has proven to be a bit polarizing up to this point, with some having Pro Bowl expectations, and others thinking he’ll be on the bench by week three. If the Eagles can dominate with their front seven and corners, it could help whoever ends up playing the safety positions.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 10th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
We made more money betting the Philadelphia Eagles a season ago than any team in the entire league, and we’re not about to stop now. We’ve seen Super Bowl participants fall off often throughout the years, but that isn’t going to happen with this Eagles team. Their roster is as good as any team in the league, and you can add in a confident and proven quarterback to the discussion. The schedule is a lot tougher this year, and the NFC East is the best division in the conference, so the record may dip just a bit. At the end of the day however, anything less than a trip back to the NFC Championship game would have to be considered a disappointment in Philly.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The value with futures bets is mostly dried up this year compared to a season ago, but the Eagles should still do well against the spread. The pattern of betting their first half overs should remain a viable betting strategy as they tend to come out focused and fast, particularly against weaker opponents. They’re simply a varsity team in a JV conference, so laying points shouldn’t scare you away as long as you pick your spots.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Devonta Smith (WR)
There are a lot of options on this Eagles offense including Jalen Hurts, who should finish as a top three or four quarterback in the world of fantasy football. A.J. Brown should continue to thrive, and Dallas Goedert is a great weapon at tight end. The guy who could quietly be a difference-maker is the speedy Devonta Smith at the wide receiver position. Smith is going into year number three with Hurts, and will be seeing a lot of single coverage that makes him a homerun threat each week. The only position we’d steer clear of on this offense is running back. It’s simply just too crowded of a backfield to start the season.
New York Giants
2022 Record – 9-7-1
2022 Record Against the Spread – 13-4
KEY ADDITIONS:
(TE) Darren Waller, (WR) Jamison Crowder, (DT) Rakeem Nunez-Roches, (LB) Bobby Okereke, (CB) Amari Oruwariye, (CB) Deonte Banks
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(C) Jon Feliciano, (S) Julian Love
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
You can argue that no team overachieved more in 2022 than the New York Giants. Behind new head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants were able to get their offense moving, and made timely plays on the defensive side of the ball. Behind the confidence and ingenuity of their new coach, the team was able to not only find their way into the playoffs, they were able to hand the Minnesota Vikings a loss in the first round. They ran into the buzz saw that is the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round, where the Eagles strength and talent proved to be too much. Improved play from quarterback Daniel Jones positioned him to receive a hefty offseason payday, as he is now firmly entrenched as the team’s leader on offense.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #29
Head coach Brian Daboll provided an immediate turnaround for the Giants in his first season, and he is vocal about planning to build upon their initial successes. New York backed up the truck and paid quarterback Daniel Jones an absurd amount of money, as they are now “all-in” on their franchise quarterback. Jones has his share of critics, however you can’t deny he was pretty effective using his legs and arm efficiently, if not remarkably. He fits this offense well because he takes care of the football, and is able to mask one of the weaknesses, which is the offensive line. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is strong, but the team really needs more from right tackle Evan Neal. They invested some draft capital in center John Michael Schmitz, Jr. in an effort to bolster the interior. If you’ll notice above, we have this Giants offensive line ranked near the bottom of the league. For this team, that is its starting point, not necessarily where they’ll finish as the season progresses. If Michael-Schmitz can be the star they hope, and Evan Neal can improve, this line could vault into the top half of the league. That’s a big if, but something worth paying close attention to as it will have a big impact on the overall success of the offense. That includes running back Saquon Barkley, who after some of the offseason running back payscale drama, is set for another go of it in New York. Barkley started last season strong before fading a bit in the second half of the year. Look for New York to lighten his load earlier in the season so he can be stronger for the playoff run. The biggest acquisition for the Giants offense was bringing in talented tight end Darren Waller. There’s no question Waller can be matchup nightmare when he is healthy and on his game. The wide receivers in New York are not necessarily spectacular, but they have potentially more depth than any other team at the position. Rookie Jalin Hyatt needs to find his way onto the field as he has a speed element that the rest of the players on the offense, outside of Matt Breida, simply don’t have.
In our preview last season for the Giants, we noted how the defense was being built around the defensive line. That continues to be the case as New York has a powerful front four of Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams in the middle and Kayvon Thibodeaux and A’Shawn Robinson on the edges. They added Rakeem Nunez-Roches for some needed rotational depth, and upgraded the linebacker position with additions of Azeez Ojulari and Bobby Okereke. Right now the middle linebacker spot is the big question mark as it looks like 6th round pick Darrian Beavers will be holding things down. That has to be a little concerning for a team that ranked 30th against the run giving up over 5.2 yards per carry in 2022. The safeties are more equipped to support in pass coverage than in the run, so again, we could see a repeat of this defense getting gashed on the ground. The cornerback position is lacking depth as well, so not only does Adoree’ Jackson need to stay healthy, but rookie Deonte Banks needs to prove he was worthy of a first round pick.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 7th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-9
The New York Giants are one of the teams most expected to regress in the 2023 season mainly due to their stated overachievement last year, and a much tougher schedule. That’s a very understandable position to take, however you have to take into account that this team is actually improved from a season ago. Daniel Jones is confident and playing better than he ever has, they were able to keep Saquon Barkley, and the addition of Darren Waller could end up being massive if he can stay on the field. Although the defense is slightly improved, they could still struggle in that respect. This is a team that is going to be competitive week to week and could even pull off some big upsets. With all that being said, we’re kind of playing the odds with them and have them slightly above their projected season win total.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Totals – Over
No one was better against the spread in 2022 than the New York Giants, yet their season win total still sits at just 7.5 wins. Inherently, there should be some nice value taking points with this team as they’re unlikely to get blown out of games. With the defense still being a question mark, and what could be a more explosive offense, they could play in some high scoring games. If their totals remain reasonable, they’re a good excuse to buck the betting trends and play an over.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Daniel Jones (QB), Darren Waller (TE)
Buyer beware with Saquon Barkley as he faded hard down the stretch last year. That could be a fluke or situational, but unless he falls far in a draft, we’d recommend not reaching there. As crazy as it sounds to some, Daniel Jones is a legitimate option at the quarterback position if you need him. He should still get some yards with his legs, and should toss more TDs than he has in his past seasons with the addition of Waller and a deep receiver room.
Washington Commanders
2022 Record – 8-8-1
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-8-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Jacoby Brissett, (OT) Andrew Wylie, (LB) Cody Barton, (CB) Emmanuel Forbes
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(CB) Bobby McCain, (QB) Taylor Heinecke, (LB) Cole Holcomb
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The first season in Washington with a newly branded Commanders team was the definition of mediocrity. Behind head coach Ron Rivera, the team finished the year with an 8-8-1 record, narrowly missing the playoffs in the NFC. Although the team overall may have been average, it was the tale of two position units for this squad. The defense played well and kept them in a lot of games, however the offense failed to get on track for most of the season. The Carson Wentz experiment at quarterback had the plug pulled on it pretty early, as he did not play well during a 2-4 start to the year. Taylor Heinecke relieved Wentz, and he did provide a bit of a spark as the team won five of their next eight games, getting back into playoff contention. The Commanders faded at the end of the season, losing a must-win game against the Browns, sealing their fate and leaving more question marks heading into the future.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #28
If any team could be considered unfortunate to play in the NFC East, it has to be the Washington Commanders. It feels like every season they show flashes and pieces of being a good football team, however they simply can’t seem to leapfrog the other teams in the division. The offense has that same feel heading into the 2023 season, as some very good skill position players could be hamstrung by poor offensive line and quarterback play. On the offensive line, they have some gritty veterans led by left tackle Charles Leno, Jr., however this group lacks pure talent and ability. The Commanders and new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy are putting their chips in with 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell. Putting an inexperienced QB behind an offensive line that will have its share of pass blocking struggles is not a great recipe for success. In truth, the team didn’t put all their chips in with Sam Howell as they also brought in journeyman Jacoby Brissett. With some talented skill players, the locker room dynamic will be interesting to watch should Howell struggle early on. On the positive front for Howell, or Brissett, the Commanders weapons are as solid as any in the league. Brian Robinson, Jr. and Antonio Gibson are a solid one-two punch at the running back position, and their starting trio of wideouts all have play-making ability. For what it’s worth, we’ve got 2nd year receiver Jahan Dotson listed as a potential breakout all-star in his sophomore campaign. Logan Thomas has struggled to stay healthy, but can be a very solid tight end option when he’s on the field. At the end of the day, this offense will simply go as far as their young quarterback and offensive line can take it.
Without receiving a lot of national attention, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact the Commanders defense was one of the best in the league in 2022. They’re primed for another good season, running things back with the core pieces that made them 6th overall in defensive DVOA. The unit should actually be even better as they added cornerback Emmanuel Forbes with their first round pick in the draft. Forbes is considered one of the most pro-ready corners to enter the league in recent years, and has looked great in early practices. Rounding that secondary out is Kendall Fuller and two of the most underrated safeties in the league in Kamren Curl and Darrick Forest. Both graded out extremely high, and if they can continue their top play, they’ll lock down opposing receivers regularly. Of course, any secondary can look good if the seven guys in front of them are winning at the line of scrimmage. The four first round picks on the defensive line are all entering their prime, and should dominate inferior offensive lines. Having Chase Young further removed from his major ACL surgery will give them even more pass rush burst off of the edge. If there is a question mark on the defense, it might be how well they respond if the offense struggles early on?
2023 Strength of Schedule – 5th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
The Commanders find themselves in a very unfavorable position amongst the teams in the NFC. They’re a solid football team with some really good players. Unfortunately, they’re in the one division in the conference they really don’t have much of a shot of making a splash in, even to secure a wild card berth. It doesn’t help they have one of the toughest schedules out there. Really their season is going to come down to whether or not Sam Howell can prove himself worthy of being a starting quarterback in the league. If he can, there is clearly some upside with this football team. If he can’t, it’ll be another rough season for Ron Rivera and company.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
With a stout defense and some weapons on offense, this team should not be getting blown out in many games. If Washington is getting 1.5 points or more, teasing them to get over the key touchdown number will be a strong wager.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Brian Robinson, Jr. (RB), Jahan Dotson (WR)
There isn’t a ton of offense expected in Washington behind the young and unproven quarterback, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some really nice value options here. Brian Robinson, Jr. can be an RB2 or flex for your team and he’s way down the list, behind several second string backs. If you caught our offseason fantasy article, we’re expecting a big year from Jahan Dotson, even with the inexperience at QB. Don’t shy away from these low cost options.
