We haven’t quite hit the typical Saturday mega-deep college basketball slates, but today’s offerings provide several betting opportunities. For many teams, this will be the last out-of-conference game as the calendar turns to 2020. After a short recap of Friday’s Coppin State play, we’ll dive right into the Road Dog Report for 12/28/2019.
There was definitely one thing absolutely correct in yesterday’s Coppin State/MSM handicap: the Eagles are no strangers to a double-digit halftime deficit. A Mount Saint Mary’s team that came into the matchup shooting 35.6% from beyond the arc went into the break with a 37-27 lead behind 9-17 from downtown. Naturally, Coppin State felt the need to keep the pace with the 3-point shot but was much less prolific at 4-14.
Long story short, these teams continued to trade deep balls but only Mount Saint Mary’s was proficient in making them. 5-13 from the free throw line didn’t help either. With the way that Coppin State continued to force the deep ball while ice cold, they appear to be a team that peaked early in the year and are now playing at a level more akin to their poor 2018-19 season. Enough griping about the streaky-shooting Eagles, it’s time to break down some games.
(645) Sacramento St. @ Montana St. pk
It’s Big Sky action in Bozeman today as the 7-2 Sacramento State Hornets visit the 6-5 Montana State Bobcats. We successfully backed the Hornets as short Road Dogs at Fullerton on December 7th, citing their defense as the key to success. That 62-59 victory was one of the eight games this season where Sacramento State has held their opponent to less than 60 points.
Montana State counters with a good shooting team that I backed in their previous two games, both as Road Dogs. I hold true to my original handicap on the Bobcats that cited strengths in their shooting and size with Belo and Kirby, while acknowledging their major drawback was turning the ball over but not generating many turnovers themselves. Montana State may have gotten a handle on their turnover problem of late, though this could be put to the test today against the Hornets’ stifling defense.
On the Money
The Hornets have been stellar against the number this season at a 6-1 clip. This includes 4-0 ATS in true road games and 1-0 on a neutral court. Sacramento State suffered their first ATS loss before the Christmas break when they failed to cover the -11 in a 57-56 win over Cal Poly at home.
Montana State’s 6-3 ATS record is very good as well, splitting their two home games with point spreads. They were blown out by Wisconsin-Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite then turned around and beat North Dakota State 77-70 as a 1.5-point dog. They’ve gone 1-1 ATS in a pair of road dog performances since then.
Is it just voodoo that road pick ’ems were money for us last year with a 15-4 record? Furthermore, this subset of plays has been a net positive for nearly five years now. The Road Dog Report for 12/28/2019 presents only my fourth road pick ’em play of this season. Despite how slowly my handicapping performance has lagged this season, I still like Sacramento State as a pick considering my fair line is about two points against the Hornets.
(665) Northern Arizona @ Montana -7.5
Rookie coach Shane Burcar leads his 6-3 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks to Missoula to face the 4-7 Montana Grizzlies for more Big Sky Conference play. Northern Arizona has been road warriors, not having played at home since December 4th…and they’re ready to roll wherever the game is. On the flip side, the Grizz have defended Dahlberg Arena well with a 4-1 home record. Montana’s lone home loss was a shocker against Montana Tech.
Northern Arizona is a solid shooting team that exhibits good control both with the ball and on defense. I expect a good offensive output somewhere in the low-to-mid 70s from this experienced team that has gelled in their out-of-conference play. They have a trio of guards that can knock down some shots, led by the savvy sophomore Cameron Shelton. Shelton gets to the free throw line and can grab boards in support of their sharpshooters, Luke Avdalovic and Ted McCree. The Lumberjacks have an upperclassmen front court with Brooks DeBisschop and Jonathan Andre, who are solid down low and very strong on the glass. 6’8″ freshman Nik Mains has given them some good minutes off of the bench as well.
Montana’s smaller lineup should have trouble out-rebounding the Lumberjacks tonight, though their two senior guards have the ability to overcome this. Sayeed Pridgett has been essentially asked to do it all, and he has produced for the Grizz. Their front court may have gotten a boost from 6’8″ Towson transfer, Yagizhan Selcuk, who played his first game for Montana on the 21st against Omaha. He brings much-needed size and showed some promise with 14 points and 6 boards in 27 minutes off of the bench. Expect the Grizzlies to slow down the Lumberjacks with good guard play, although Northern Arizona should keep the game tight with their bigs.
On the Money
The Lumberjacks have been quite profitable this season with a 5-2 ATS record. Their 4-1 ATS road mark includes four straight games away from home, which were all covers as road dogs. Pricing on Northern Arizona has been somewhat range-bound. Other than their season-opening blowout at Arizona, their point spread have been between +5 and +9.5 in their five other dog spots. They’ve covered all of them and won four of them outright.
Montana’s 2-1 home ATS record is much better than its overall 3-6 ATS mark. They beat North Dakota 77-70 and covered the -6.5 by the hook a week after failing to cover the -12.5 against Coppin State (naturally, I was not on Coppin State in that one). Their first home contest with a point spread was a 12-point win over Texas Southern as a 10-point favorite. The Grizzlies have been damn good at home.
When it comes to the point spread, this matchup is strength on strength. 4-1 on the road vs. 2-1 at home. Just like the North Dakota game, this one could very well be decided by the hook if the Lumberjacks don’t win it outright. Given the legitimate possibility that NAU wins the game, I am fine with being on the right side of the key number of 7.
(669) Pacific @ Cal Irvine -7.5
The 12-3 Pacific Tigers roll into Irvine on a seven-game win streak to face the 7-7 Anteaters, who are 9-1 in their last ten home games. The problem is that Cal Irvine has only played four home games this season, and two of them have come against non-D1 competition. They split their two games in Irvine against Eastern Michigan and Cal Baptist.
Pacific rewarded my support in their game at UNLV on December 18th, winning 74-68 as 4-point dogs. My handicap for that game emphasized the strength of Coach Stoudamire’s ten-man rotation in the face of their foul problems. Their ongoing keys to success are limiting fouls and taking advantage of drawing fouls by making their shots at the line. Cal Irvine is a team that gets their fair share of free throws but also puts their opponents at the stripe for an excessive 22 shots per game. Pacific must echo the 70.2% free throw shooting in their two previous games versus the 62.7% they had in the first 13 games of the season.
Irvine enjoys a height advantage that Pacific may struggle with throughout the game. The Anteaters have four big men at 6’8″ or taller that get plenty of minutes. They create (and make) high-percentage shots and back this up with superior rebounding. Irvine’s other weakness in addition to the foul issues noted above is turning the ball over. Pacific is definitely live in this one if guards Jahill Tripp and Justin Moore can capitalize on Anteater turnovers and the Tigers make their shots at the line.
On the Money
Pacific’s 5-7-1 ATS record is watered down by their 2-5-1 ATS mark at home. The Tigers were dogs in both of their December road games. They won both of those games outright as a +1 at Long Beach State and +3.5 at UNLV. Considering that I have Cal Irvine rated a couple points better than UNLV, tonight’s +7.5 seems fair on face value.
UC Irvine is 1-1 ATS at home this season and 5-7 ATS overall. Their two home games against D1 competition were split ATS and straight up; falling to Cal Baptist and thumping Eastern Michigan. The Anteaters have laid points six times this season, covering the number only twice despite winning three outright.
Pacific has not been great as a dog this year. They are 2-3 ATS as dogs, although tonight’s +7.5 is the biggest spread that the Tigers have caught all season. Irvine is a step up in competition for Pacific, but I have these two teams rated similarly given their corresponding strengths of schedule. Even with a full four points (that is not warranted) for playing on Irvine’s floor, this spread is at least three points heavy so I’ll take the +7.5 with the Tigers.
Road Dog Report for 12/28/2019 Final Betting Card
- (645) Sacramento St. pk
- (665) Northern Arizona +7.5
- (669) Pacific +7.5
