Wednesday’s college basketball card offers a solid menu of opportunities that is even bigger if you have access to the extra games. To my relief, there was no buzzer beater last night in Malibu to crush the Portland State ticket. With the positive vibes rolling this morning, it’s time for the Road Dog Report for 12/18/2019.
Quick recap of Tuesday’s Portland +8 play: the Vikings faded the end game death spiral of Pepperdine’s four free throws to get a 71-77 cover. The major concern going against Pepperdine is their sharpshooting, which was not overwhelming last night (5-16 from downtown). I also felt that Portland State needed to be good on the glass and create points off of turnovers to stay competitive. They did not realize a material advantage in either of those aspects, rather they just jacked up 26 three-point shots and nailed a dozen of them. I’ll take it.
(679) Pacific Tigers @ UNLV Rebels -4
The Pacific Tigers have started their season by loading up the win column at 10-3, despite a lackluster overall level of competition faced. UNLV’s 4-7 record seems much worse on face value, but they find themselves as the home favorite tonight. The Rebels have been a favorite only four other times this year, winning three of those games.
Coach Damon Stoudamire’s Tigers have taken another small step forward in this 2019-20 season. They’ve won eight of their last nine on the back of strong defense and excellent rebounding. Pacific routinely runs a ten-man rotation with a ton of upperclassmen and some younger players taking advantage of their playing time. The Tigers’ weakest spot is foul trouble, which comes with the territory of their tight defense.
UNLV counters with the 6’11” Senegalese forward, Cheikh Mbacke Diong, who is an absolute monster on the boards. This team runs their offense through Detroit natives Amauri Hardy and Donnie Tillman. The Rebels are also a squad that puts their opponents on the line, which may not be a major liability tonight as the Tigers are pitiful at the charity stripe (62.7%). Pacific has measurable advantages over UNLV but I expect their success to hinge on whether they can make enough of their free throws tonight. Additionally, the Tigers catch a break as the Rebels are still without key senior transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long.
On the Money
Both teams have been lackluster against the number this season. Pacific’s 4-6-1 ATS mark is buried with a ton of home games, though they recently produced as a 1-point Road Dog at Long Beach State. UNLV is 5-6 ATS but is an outstanding 3-1 as a home favorite. Although those results came while Mitrou-Long was still on the floor for 36 minutes a game. Pacific is in a rare situation tonight as Road Dog, but I make this nearly a pick ’em based on core ratings. +4 is a take for me, but the Tigers must make their free throws tonight.
(1457) Binghamton Bearcats @ Youngstown St. Penguins -10
Tommy Dempsey takes his 5-5 Bearcats to Youngstown for a showdown against the 6-5 Penguins. Other than the 7’0″ Yarden Willis that gets good time off of the bench, Binghamton doesn’t have a ton of height in their lineup. Youngstown State is comparable when it comes to size and has a less-impactful bench in that regard.
Sophomore guard Sam Sessoms is the breadwinner for this Bearcats team. He moves the ball well and takes a ton of shots, although his proficiency from downtown is hit-or-miss. This is a Binghamton team that plays a relatively clean game despite not having a whole lot of firepower or flash.
Youngstown State is a good rebounding team that relies on high-percentage shots to control the game. They counter with a strong sophomore guard of their own, Darius Quisenberry, who is always a threat to score with the ball is in his hands. The Penguins take care of the ball and play solid defense.
On the Money
Can Binghamton position themselves so they enter the final sequence with enough cushion to survive Youngstown State’s free throws? My core rating has the Penguins at about 4.5 points better than the Bearcats. Youngstown State is 3-5-1 ATS and 2-1 in the role of home favorite. They covered their last two in this situation, both as 7.5-point favorites, winning by 15 and 11 against Southeast Missouri State and Robert Morris.
The Bearcats are 6-3 ATS; 2-3 ATS as a Road Dog. They started the season getting trounced by Cornell and Michigan State, resulting in more favorable prices that led to a string of Binghamton covers. Lately, they’ve covered two out of their last three in this situation but just missed at Loyola Maryland as a 10.5-point dog. The Tigers snuck in a win at NJIT as 13.5-point dogs after covering at Columbia as 15-point dogs. Other than NJIT, I rate those other opponents about 2-3 points better than YSU. A case could be made for either side here but the +10 is advantageous to Binghamton considering each team’s current form.
Road Dog Report for 12/18/2019 – Final Betting Card
- (679) Pacific Tigers +4
- (1457) Binghamton Bearcats +10
