The Road Dogs record holds at a “modest” 4-8 record after Saturday’s pair of plays split. The season is young and there’s plenty of opportunities to surpass last year’s 55.8% mark. With that in mind, I sharpened the pencils late last night and found a trio of games to fill the Road Dog Report for 12/15/2019.
12/14/2019 Recap
Wagner hadn’t played in two weeks and it showed early and often. Their main threat, Curtis Cobb, was diminished with a wrist injury and his performance was indicative of the entire team’s shooting: cold as ice. At the end of it all, Hartford nailed 33-38 free throws while Wagner paled in comparison with a measly 11-16. Wagner +4 fell 63-71 for an early loss on the card.
Evansville, on the other hand, jumped out early and kept their foot on the gas in the first half. They took a 15-point lead into the locker room via 8-17 shooting from beyond the arc. This was a huge difference when compared to Green Bay’s 27% shooting at the break. However, these kids play two halves and the Phoenix made the game way too interesting by cutting the Aces’ lead to six at one point. The Road Dog stiffened, got the cover and the outright win, and ended our day on the court with a 1-1 record.
(773) Tennessee St. Tigers @ Fordham Rams -4.5
After getting burned by the Tigers on December 10th at Little Rock, I’m going back to the well and betting them in the Bronx this afternoon. I was high on TSU’s fast-paced game plan earlier in the week and am not deterred from playing them again. They crumbled in the second half against Little Rock after going ice cold from the floor and shooting a paltry 44.4% from the line. When the dust settled, Tennessee State shot about 9% below their average while ALR finished about 8% above average. Both teams turned the ball over equally, though TSU was unable to convert their opportunities to points.
Today’s opponent, Fordham, dropped their last two at home but maintains an overall winning record at 5-4. The Rams are known for their lockdown defense and emphasis on not turning the ball over. Junior forward Chuba Ohams is the centerpiece of this team and makes a big impact with his prowess on the glass. TSU’s Wesley Harris and Jy’lan Washington will be tested when it comes to limiting second chances from Ohams’ offensive rebounding strengths. Matchups aside, this game comes down to the betting number for me.
On the Money
Despite Tuesday’s collapse, Tennessee State holds a 7-3 ATS record that includes 3-1 ATS on the road and 2-0 on neutral courts. Fordham has underperformed the betting market in the Bronx with a 2-4 ATS record at home and 4-5 ATS overall. Fordham has failed to cover their last two home games as 5-point favorites, losing them both outright. Based on the teams’ contrasting betting market performance, TSU at +4 or better is a play.
(775) Illinois St. Redbirds @ Northern Kentucky Norse -7
The 4-5 Redbirds head to the hills above Cincinnati to face a strong 7-3 Northern Kentucky team. Illinois State has played a solid schedule to date and has emerged with some battle scars. They appear to be improved from last year’s 17-16 squad under the leadership of senior guard Zach Copeland. Wichita State transfer Ricky Torres has bolstered the ISU backcourt and improved the team’s overall level of defense.
Northern Kentucky is setting themselves up for another 20+ win season and a run at back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths. Senior forward Dantez Walton is a force to be reckoned with and could pose a big matchup problem for the Redbirds. He averages 18.6 PPG and pulls down a lot of boards. Their backcourt is anchored by Trevon Faulkner and Tyler Sharpe, although Illinois State’s counterparts have the ability to neutralize them.
When it comes to handicapping this game, I see two key pinch points: turnovers and three-point shooting. NKU is good at generating steals, but the overall turnover equation is in Illinois State’s favor due to their strong defense. The Norse shoot a lot of three-pointers at a middling 32.5% while holding their opponents to a low 25.4% from downtown. This looks to be a strength against ISU’s 38.9% three-point shooting, except that they utilize the perimeter shot strategically. The bottom line is that the Redbirds’ defense is key to keeping them within seven when the clock hits zero.
On the Money
Despite each team having played eight games with a point spread, both are in unfamiliar territory when it comes to home/road splits this season. The Redbirds are 4-4 ATS; 1-0 as a road team and 1-2 on a neutral court. Illinois State’s true road game against TCU was not close, although they managed to cover as 14-point dogs with a 69-81 loss.
The Norse are 1-2 ATS at home with a 5-3 ATS overall mark. An interesting aspect of NKU’s betting market performance is today’s line of -7. They were posted as double-digit favorites in their three home games against Coppin State (-17), Texas Southern (-11.5), and Eastern Kentucky (-13.5). Perhaps the market has corrected its assessment of NKU. Coppin State was way undervalued early in the season – and continues to be IMO, as you’ll see below – but the loss to Texas Southern caught a lot of Horizon League followers by surprise. They rebounded strongly by covering the -13.5 against EKU by 5.5 points. I think +5.5 is a fair price for today’s matchup, so +7 with the Redbirds is a take for me.
(1371) Coppin St. Eagles @ UMBC Retrievers -7
Coppin State lived in the MEAC cellar during Coach Juan Dixon’s first couple years on the job. After winning only 13 games in the last two seasons, this Eagles team has already posted four wins this year. Despite getting thumped at Davidson on Tuesday, I rate this beleaguered squad 13-15 points higher than in previous years.
The 4-7 Eagles stay in metro Baltimore to face the 5-6 UMBC Retrievers, who look to snap a three-game losing streak. UMBC’s offense is fueled by high-percentage shots (54.0% 2-point shots) from a trio of big upperclassmen. They take their share of three-pointers, but to limited success. The Retrievers have shown strengths in drawing fouls with their big men and by turning their opponents over.
Coppin State has also done well with turnovers but their similarities pretty much end there. This Road Dog is not as proficient with their shooting, doesn’t move the ball quite as well, but is very good on the boards. The trio of Kamar McKnight and brothers Andrew and Aaron Robinson will shoot about 20 three-point shots on a given night. If Coach Dixon can limit the team’s deep shooting to this trio – who are a collective 31.0% from downtown – they have a much better chance of staying competitive this afternoon.
On the Money
Coppin State has covered nine of its eleven games, and have been an underdog in each one. UMBC, on the other hand, covered only two of the eight games in which oddsmakers hung a line on them. Their 25-point win vs. Drexel was their last cover at home. My humble opinion is that the books are letting the bettors continue to operate under the assumption that this is still a terrible Coppin State team. Considering that I have the Eagles rated slightly higher than the Retrievers and that there is only a slim home court advantage, anything at +4 or above is a strong buy point.
Road Dog Report for 12/15/2019 – Final Card
- Tennessee State +4.5
- Illinois State +7
- Coppin State +7
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