The NASCAR Cup series’ second stop at Pocono in 2019 goes to green Sunday afternoon. Saturday marked two practice sessions capped off by a qualification run. As we detailed on Wednesday, Pocono Raceway is a unique 2.5-mile, three-turn track that can put added stress on inexperienced drivers and their teams.
Prior to Saturday’s action, Kyle Busch led the field at +275 with Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski behind him at +550. After qualifying, Busch is still the leader at +250 but is now bunched up with Harvick at +300. Truex, Jr. (+650) and Logano (+800) are the other drivers under +1000 to win the race.
On the matchup side, Busch was given a strong advantage of -155 against NASCAR stalwarts Keselowski, Harvick, and Truex, Jr. It was tough to argue against the love for Kyle since he’s won 3 of the last 4 races at Pocono (his streak was interrupted by a 3rd place finish in 2018). Despite Harvick qualifying 1st to Kyle’s 7th, Busch is still a -125 favorite in that matchup.
Fresh Takes
Denny Hamlin (-115) over Joey Logano
Hamlin and Logano are an interesting pick ’em matchup; one that had Hamlin favored -135 before Saturday’s action. Joey Logano has run fairly well this season, racking up 2 wins and 14 T10s. 2 of his last 3 races at Pocono were T10s but 4 of the last 6 fell outside the T20. Logano will start in Row 1 after qualifying 2nd and having a couple strong practices, even though the numbers show he only logged 16th and 11th places.
Hamlin’s day was fairly decent. A 12th place qualification will start him up in the pack to chase the lead cars early. There should be a certain level of confidence with the #11 car at Pocono. He T10’ed the last 2 runnings and has finished worse than 14th only once since 2015. Hamlin is running hot like Logano, coming to Pennsylvania after 2nd and 5th place finishes.
Hamlin has realized more success at Pocono than Logano has the last few years. Joey’s strong qualification run pushed Hamlin’s price down from -135. The post-qual move to -115 gets me to bite considering Denny’s strength on the triangle.
Update on Joey Logano (-225) vs. Chase Elliott (+165)
Chase and the #9 team have been struggling since a 4th place finish in the June Pocono race. His hot run started with a victory at Talladega and essentially ended at Pocono. Chase has been a guy to bet against or avoid altogether in recent weeks with half of his post-Pocono results falling outside the T20.
…This is a wait-and-see matchup; if Elliott looks good through the week and Logano is somewhere around 15th, Elliott could be the play in this matchup. However, this call must be based on the #9 team’s performance in practices and qualification. If he continues on the same path that he’s been on or if Logano looks strong, I’ll happily back off.Chase and the #9 team have been struggling since a 4th place finish in the June Pocono race. His hot run started with a victory at Talladega and essentially ended at Pocono. Chase has been a guy to bet against or avoid altogether in recent weeks with half of his post-Pocono results falling outside the T20.
Well, we waited…and saw Elliott smack the wall in Saturday’s first practice. He ran his backup car to the 23rd position in the qualifier and warranted the 95 cent move on Logano. The #9 team is struggling right now and will not get any BetCrushers money this week.
Pre-Qual Plays In Hand
William Byron (+100) over Jimmie Johnson
Experience isn’t necessarily everything. Jimmie Johnson has raced at Pocono dozens of times but has really faded out since 2016. In his last 7 runnings here, he’s posted only 1 T10 and 3 other T20s. It looked like Jimmie was rounding into form this season since the Dover race but has fallen off hard in his last two.
Byron has run Cup races at Pocono only 3 times, yet he’s T10’ed the last 2. Stack him against Johnson over the past couple months and he’s been comparable, if not slightly better. I typically like to see how the cars run in practice and qualification before nailing down a matchup wager, but this gets an early-week play. Bryon should have an edge over the veteran, yet he is catching plus-money.
Johnson had a very good Saturday, qualifying 6th and posting dual 6s in the practice sessions. Byron was no slouch, qualifying 8th with big 2nd & 4th practice runs. Despite Jimmie’s strong day I still love this matchup with Byron. He’s been rock solid lately and has a strong (albeit very short) track record at Pocono.
The price on Byron is now up to -155 against Jimmie. I don’t see why this number jumped 55 cents after solid runnings by Johnson on Saturday. One could almost make the case for grabbing the +115 on Johnson, but we’re in with +100 on the better driver.
Erik Jones (-115) over Kyle Larson
Larson has a several-year head start on Erik Jones when it comes to Pocono Experience. Both guys have been racing fairly well in the last couple months, warranting the oddsmakers’ pick ’em on this matchup. However, Jones has run extremely well at Pocono; 4 of his 5 races were T10s, and 3 of those were T5s. Larson came in 2nd in 2018 but otherwise has been outside the T20 in 3 of his last 4 here. This may warrant a play on Jones before practice begins though some value may get sucked out of it if he looks stronger than Larson.
Larson tagging the wall in Saturday’s first practice certainly helped the cause for our Erik Jones play. He qualified 29th with his backup car, so his crew has a lot of work to get Larson’s machine ready for 400 miles on the Tricky Triangle. Jones has been running well and came strong in qualification (4th) and practices (7th, 1st).
Jones now sits at -225 against Larson. This move makes sense considering Erik’s strong Saturday and Larson running with a backup car. This number is now unplayable.
Ryan Blaney (-115) over Kyle Larson
Ryan Blaney was a pre-qual play against Larson for similar reasons as the Erik Jones wager. Blaney’s results at Pocono aren’t quite a strong as Jones’, but he has been a rock at this track. He won here in 2017 and finished worse than 12th only once in 7 runnings. Both were in similar form coming into Pocono but I liked Blaney’s performances over the last couple years better than Larson.
Blaney now sits at -132 and is still playable at the higher price. He qualified 20th but was strong in practices, logging the 11th and 8th rankings. I’d argue that Blaney and the #12 car are stronger than his starting position dictates, especially against Larson’s backup car.
