Saturday’s look at Mitch Keller’s sinker paid some dividends in an interesting way to play what turned out to be a pitchers’ duel in Pittsburgh. Today we stay focused on starting pitching with young starting pitchers who are steadily moving forward in their major league career progressions. So let’s head to Cleveland and jump into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 8-2-2022. BOL this week!
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-135)
Z. Gallen (R) vs. T. McKenzie (R)
The dream is still alive in Cleveland as the Guardians find themselves in the mix of a who finishes above .500? AL Central race. And Arizona is holding their own this season despite being on the outside looking in at any playoff action. Both offenses have started the second half headed in the right direction, making tonight’s contest far from a cakewalk for Zac Gallen and Triston McKenzie – the latter I dug into on June 9th.
Arizona shipping left-handed hitter David Peralta to the Rays does not help their cause against McKenzie. Not that the Diamondbacks lack lefties by any stretch of the imagination, it’s that their performance against righties firmly lags the league average. That sort of problem is not shared by the Guardians – Cleveland has about a 30% bias towards hitting right-handers. Don’t get me wrong, they’re one of the two worst squads against lefties but that shouldn’t be their problem for the first 5-6 innings tonight.
Gallen vs. McKenzie: Similarities
| K% | BB% | K/BB | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallen | 23.6% | 6.8% | 3.48 | 3.24 |
| McKenzie | 23.8% | 6.7% | 3.53 | 3.24 |
A quick comparison between these young righties shows similarities when hitters do not put the ball in play. These are two starters who have adapted their approaches to rely less on strikeouts while cutting back on walks. In fact, both pitchers have reduced their strikeout and walk rates from their tougher 2021 seasons while improving their K/BB ratios. Yet their batted ball results have significant divergences. Gallen has done a better job keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding the long ball with less frequent hard contact.
Gallen vs. McKenzie: Differences
| HR/9 | FIP | xFIP | GB% | HH% | SwSt% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallen | 0.94 | 3.70 | 3.79 | 45.6% | 35.9% | 9.5% |
| McKenzie | 1.34 | 4.12 | 4.15 | 31.7% | 40.0% | 11.8% |
McKenzie’s struggles with the home run have been clumpy this season. Six of the nine starts this year in which Triston gave up a homer were multi-HR games. And the kid has only given up one in his last five starts – a 6th inning bomb from Xander Bogaerts last time out. His curveball continues to be a wipeout pitch…but the other side of the coin is a slider that has largely disappointed in 2022.
What’s the Call?
What this game comes down to for me is offense. What little there may be? No arguments from me on the total of 7.5, maybe a slight bias to the over. An over bet is especially tough considering how well these relief units have pitched since the break. Arizona had to dig deep early and Cleveland is likely to be without most of their back end relievers after working a couple high-leverage nights in a row. Small edge to the Guardians bullpen all things considered.
Then you have Gallen and McKenzie on upswings through July. I credit Gallen about 1/3 of a run to FIP, though both deserve to be looked at in the high-3.00s zone. McKenzie – being prone to homers – gets a bit of a break with low-70s temps and not much wind. Arizona was a sneaky long ball team in the first half so the 24-year-old is not totally out of the woods. David Peralta’s absence does not help their cause as his 121 wRC+ vs. righties left town. I still give home field a slight advantage, if anything for the strategic edge assuming you aren’t depending on Tony LaRussa to call the shots.
WAGER: Guardians -135 [1/2 unit]
I have Cleveland about 15% more productive at the plate agnostic of specific pitcher. To be conservative, shave a little off in case a key cog like Jose Ramirez or Josh Naylor are not in the lineup. And Naylor’s nagging back issues are always a threat. With one of those two you still get guys like Steven Kwan, Nolan Jones, and Andres Gimenez also putting in work against righties. Look for both starters to get pushed deep into the 6th and maybe 7th innings if McKenzie’s upswing continues. That could help Cleveland work through a thinner, yet still potent, relief corps. Don’t overpay by any means against Zac Gallen… my short leash stops at -140.
Heading for Home
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