Much like taking a catcher’s mask to the face, failure to plate an early run or two in Anaheim left last Monday’s Solo Shot – and my only wager of the evening – a tad short. I appreciate both bullpens following the script, but an L is an L. A nasty second half to the workweek kept the Breakdown at bay but it’s time to get the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-24-2023 fired up as July enters the homestretch. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS (MIL -115, 9)
This morning’s pickings are slim to say the least with a limited Monday slate and three games off the board. It’s disappointing not to have a wager in hand at this point but here we are…pitch black outside and ready to roll. So we’ll head back to one of the best division races going outside of the AL East, notwithstanding my bias as a supporter of the Cincinnati Reds. The schedule makers’ “foresight” dialed up three pivotal series between these two NL Central contenders in the month of July, setting the stage for a two month sprint to the finish line that only the Cubs could potentially edge their way into.
I’m on the sidelines with this matchup despite my handicapping process pointing towards the Brewers. Their -115 price at home is more than appetizing, to say the least. Neither team’s offense has been prolific post-ASB, but the infusion of prospects into the 26-man rosters bodes well for the short- and long-terms. The Brewers’ Sal Frelick debuted with a 3-for-4 effort against the Braves Saturday while Cincy’s Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s first week on the job has shown some bright spots in amongst early struggles. Nonetheless, both clubs are looking for a spark to ignite some run production.
CIN Offense, 1st Half vs. 2nd Half (thru 7/23)
| HR | R | SB | Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 98 | 454 | 112 | .257/.337/.416 | 100 | .316 |
| 2nd Half | 15 | 43 | 5 | .226/.294/.408 | 83 | .265 |
MIL Offense, 1st Half vs. 2nd Half (thru 7/23)
| HR | R | SB | Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 97 | 384 | 72 | .232/.312/.378 | 89 | .288 |
| 2nd Half | 7 | 30 | 8 | .224/.287/.378 | 73 | .269 |
So what’s the damn point? You can argue that both lineups have upside potential moving into the next couple weeks considering what they achieved in the first half. One key factor behind why I’ve undervalued the Reds offense is my more conservative outlook for them coming into the season. On the flip side, the Brewers have widely underachieved when stacked up against my expectation. So it’s no surprise that my process gives a 2-3% edge at the plate to the Crew without respect to specific pitchers this evening.
G Ashcraft (R) vs. C Rea (R)
Do either of tonight’s starting pitchers provide a significant edge over the other? Graham Ashcraft’s role as a ground ball contact specialist hit a really nasty slide in May and June, culminating in a major wakeup call against the Braves on June 24th. That eight-start window saw Ashcraft post a 1-6 record with a 12.82 ERA and 7.74 FIP/5.37 xFIP. His fly ball rates were ugly (11 HR in 33.0 IP!) and a commensurate .407 BABIP pointed towards tough luck, poor execution, or a combination of both. Since then, the 25-year-old righty has stayed out of trouble for the most part. With just 2 long balls in 24.2 IP over his last four starts, Ashcraft has returned to his frustrating ground-ball form with a .254 BABIP and 1.82 ERA. His low strikeout rate and borderline-iffy walk rate still penalize him in the lens of FIP and xFIP though.
Colin Rea’s struggles with the long ball are not unlike Ashcraft’s, however, the Brewers’ righty has had a fairly steady season in this regard. Are both ripe for the picking in the big picture? Cincy’s starter arguably offers better form coming into tonight’s contest but the fact that both are contact pitchers should give both lineups some hope. That’s all well and good except that the Brewers bullpen has answered the call in the second half. Well, except for Elvis Peguero’s meltdown against the Braves yesterday. The fact that Milwaukee’s relief unit should have all hands on deck except for Peguero is an ace up Craig Counsell’s sleeve.
The Difference Maker?
The Reds ‘pen is likely without setup man Ian Gibaut and David Bell could be put into a difficult situation if the need for closer Alexis Diaz arises. Diaz got a much-needed day off yesterday after working three of four days prior. All three appearances were successful save conversions, for what it’s worth. But the big picture speaks to Cincy’s bullpen operating pretty much according to their full-season form. Dueling 6-inning outings from Ashcraft and Rea conceivably favors the Brew Crew with a potential Milner-Payamps-Williams finish to the game.
That’s why my numbers favor Milwaukee firmly on the full-game line much more so than in the first 5 innings. Will I bet the Brewers at -115? Doubtful. Will I snag the Reds on the first 5 inning line instead? Somebody has to have a compelling argument to get me there, right??? Otherwise, I’m laying low on the sidelines tonight – maybe not the worst thing in the world after a grindy weekend on the diamonds and a long couple days at work ahead. BOL!
Heading for Home
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