The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-12-2022 comes at you after a disappointing – yet not surprising – failure to produce runs in Chicago. It sure seemed like a good idea at the time…what more can I say? And in full disclosure, today’s Solo Shot does not have my money behind it. Yet, at least. But it is an interesting matchup that carries the dilemma of riding a hot hand or staying on the sidelines. Have a good Tuesday and BOL with your wagers!
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ MINNESOTA TWINS (-140)
J. Alexander (R) vs. J. Winder (R)
Put the Milwaukee Brewers near the top of the list of offenses that I’ve had a tough time pinning down this season. Much of that is due to them being about 10% better than my preseason expectation, though they have produced below their normal level lately. And tonight they face one of the Minnesota Twins’ top pitching prospects, Josh Winder as both squads look to pad their divisional leads to close out the first half of the 2022 season.
Both teams are fairly well rested after getting Monday off. That’s a very nice reset for a league running on fumes as it cruises into the All-Star Break. So when it comes to the first of this quick two-game series, which of the two MLB rookie starting pitchers can keep their team in this thing? The Brew Crew’s 29-year-old Jason Alexander or Minnesota’s Josh Winder?
MIL/MIN wRC+, by Period
| L7 Days | L14 Days | Season | vs. RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 90 | 122 | 103 | 107 |
| MIN | 156 | 133 | 113 | 117 |
Rookie Exposure
The early returns on Winder are fine: 4.10 FIP/4.70 xFIP with reasonable ground ball, hard hit, and swinging strike rates. The kid is known for his command of a well-rounded arsenal – of which the slider and curve have been quite good. He hit the ground running as a starter, throwing 6.0 innings of shutout ball in his first two starts. Since then, Winder has been less invincible and has gotten his taste of major league hitting. As a contact pitcher (16.1%K, 7.1% BB) I can appreciate how he’s kept the ball in the park for the most part and allows a good Twins defense to clean things up behind him.
With such a small amount of results to go from, how will Craig Counsell’s lefty-heavy lineup perform against Winder? He has yet to truly be punished for an 11.8% walk rate against left-handed hitters. After all, that is a key part of Josh’s 0.60-run FIP/xFIP discrepancy. Expect the Brewers’ competent southpaws like Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, and Kolten Wong to test him tonight. Will Milwaukee’s short down cycle in offensive production continue to play out? Or is this a good spot for a recovery?
Full Steam Ahead?
On an opposite note, Minnesota’s recent road trip to Chicago and Texas really padded their offensive stats. Smashing 40 runs in 6 games put the Twins offense on another level as they scored at least 5 runs in each game of those two series. Luis Arraez’ Tony Gwynn impression is a damn good one but much of the team’s recent proliferation has come via the bats of Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, Max Kepler, and Alex Kiriloff – not the likes of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.
MIN Selected Players’ wRC+, by Period
| L7 Days | L14 Days | Season | vs. RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polanco | 205 | 162 | 119 | 134 |
| Miranda | 223 | 183 | 10 | 106 |
| Kiriloff | 207 | 171 | 98 | 122 |
| Kepler | 184 | 142 | 118 | 124 |
Do the Twins fizzle or keep chugging along against Jason Alexander tonight? As a notoriously high-BABIP pitcher throughout his minor league career, Alexander gives up a ton of hits. When you have a paltry 1.13 K/BB ratio there’s going to be plenty of traffic on the base paths, especially when you don’t get the same swing-and-miss results as you did in the minors. But the sinker baller can frustrate teams and that’s what has kept him from being a total letdown while filling in for the injured Adrian Houser and Freddy Peralta. Prone pitcher + hot lineup…what could possibly go wrong?
UNDER CONSIDERATION: Twins First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 +100
To be honest, I’m less confident in the combined total materializing – whether it be the full game total of 9 or the first 5 inning total of 5. Maybe my ongoing doubts with the Milwaukee lineup is keeping me on the sidelines in that regard. But if I’m high on the Twins offense in tonight’s scenario and they are the catalyst for getting this thing over, I might as well isolate them against Jason Alexander. Although all good runs come to an end at some point, maybe tonight isn’t the night for Minnesota’s bats to go quiet…
Heading for Home
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