Life after vacation has a way of punching you in the mouth…at least for us suckers with day jobs. The choppy betting week meets a slate that I have embraced with a card as full as the days before heading overseas. Overextended? Maybe. It’s Friday though, and Smokey had it right all along. There’s plenty reasons to feel good going into the weekend. Hopefully the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-9-2023 is one of them for a change. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
MIAMI MARLINS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (CHW -140, 8)
The Miami Marlins’ hot streak gets put to the test in the breezy confines of South Chicago as the White Sox return home in hope of keeping some positive momentum. Nobody seems willing to take the AL Central by the throat. The Southsiders should have more confidence with a healthy roster coming out of a successful trip to New York. With the Fish rattling off six straight wins – against inferior competition, mind you – it is safe to say that both clubs are in good form for the series opener.
Miami’s day off coupled with the Sox’ efficient use of relievers in yesterday’s double header means little to no bullpen restriction on either side of the ledger. That’s a good thing, especially for the Marlins. Rookie phenom Eury Perez is a 5-inning guy at this point in his young career. Dylan Cease, on the other hand, has regained some semblance of his 6-inning form after pulling out of a mid-spring funk. The return of closer Liam Hendriks tightens the gap between these two bullpens and could effectively turn tonight’s contest into a Cease-Lopez-Kelly-Hendriks close the door and go home affair.
E Perez (R) vs. D Cease (R)
Getting to that Chicago back end will require a little something extra from Dylan Cease. Six of his last seven outings have come against the AL Central’s sluggish offenses of Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Minnesota. We could have easily lumped Miami’s into that group in previous seasons. This year, however, the Marlins have been hanging right around league average in offensive production. Squaring off against Oakland and Kansas City pitching this week has padded the stats a bit, however. I put both lineups in similar ranges with Chicago at full strength, as compared to Miami being without Jazz Chisholm Jr. and potentially Jorge Soler.
Cease stacks up to Perez nicely with an edge around 1/4 run consistently across their ranges. If there is any parity between the two, it is in the high end of their probable outputs. Where the 20-year-old rookie could catch a break is with Chicago’s league-low 6.6% walk rate. After all, free passes (11.1%) have been Eury’s weakness to date. Couple that with a .230 BABIP and it’s only a matter of time before opponents gradually pick away at the kid more frequently. His fastball has some serious oomph, but it’s the secondary pitches that primarily take care of business via a 12.5% swinging strike rate. The towering righty will eventually get a better hold on the heater as he matures. As for tonight, it’s all about keeping the White Sox hitters off balance.
WAGER: Marlins First 5 Innings +120 (0.5u)
WAGER: Marlins +125 (0.5u)
My featured handicaps continue to struggle…what can I say? The prospect of these starters going toe-to-toe against lineups on the upswing is an interesting one. Over 8 runs was a consideration but I kept coming back to the dog with their underrated bullpen and surging lefty hitters like Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez, and Joey Wendle. This has been a weak spot for Dylan Cease. While the White Sox arguably deserve a favorite price, -140 is pretty steep against this good Marlins club. +120 or better was good enough to get me involved.
Heading for Home
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