It feels like it has been a minute since I got a handicap out there – well, a couple of days anyways. Sometimes the job that pays the bills has to override getting content out on the website. But it’s Friday and I know you all are ready for the weekend. So let’s get things started with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-28-2021…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians (+140)
When it comes to offenses currently hitting their stride, the Toronto Blue Jays have been on the short list for a few weeks running. Sure, their trailing 14-day 134 wRC+ has cooled off down to 118 wRC+ with a .259/.308/.497 slash line over the past seven days. However, Toronto’s offense was not able to pull the team out of a 3-7 skid that dropped them into fourth place in the AL East. They square off against AL Central contender Cleveland tonight at a windy Progressive Field.
The Indians have fueled their current run with one of the most consistent bullpens in the majors despite juggling rotation slots due to injuries. Cleveland’s lineup has suffered a couple recent setbacks as well, with Franmil Reyes on the IL and Amed Rosario and Jordan Luplow suffering day-to-day type of injuries this week. In terms of offensive production, the Tribe’s 87 wRC+ over the last 14 days is right in line with my season-long expectations. Neither team suffers from lopsided lefty/righty splits or is experiencing any wild fluctuations at the plate. The bottom line is a discrepancy of about 25% in productivity between these two offenses.
Who Is Driving This Thing?
Toronto’s ongoing surge at the plate is skewed a fair amount by their recent home stand, though they cranked out a respectable 11 runs in 23 innings at the Yankees. But the real driver of tonight’s bus could very well be Mother Nature. Her effects will be stiff winds blowing from right to left and possible light rain – so all of this writing could be in vain due to rainout. The wind should favor right-handed hitters this evening, and the Blue Jays have plenty of righties who can mash:
Toronto Blue Jays Batters, Last 14 Days (thru 5-26-2021)
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guerrero | .422 | .490 | 1.044 | 307 |
| Semien | .333 | .396 | .729 | 204 |
| Gurriel | .425 | .425 | .650 | 199 |
| Hernandez | .348 | .412 | .543 | 166 |
| Grichuk | .280 | .294 | .540 | 127 |
H. Ryu (L) vs. E. Morgan (R)
Eli Morgan is slated to make his major league debut tonight after working his way through the minors since being drafted in 2017. He is anything but an auto-fade, though I like how Toronto stacks up against the 25-year-old. Between A+ and AAA, Morgan’s 2019 season and this year’s work revealed a couple key issues – fly balls and walks. He hit a wall in AAA with an increasing walk rate due to inconsistent command, and has around a 30% ground ball rate in the last two minor league seasons. Too many line drives and fly balls could be trouble against this potent lineup, though the command issue may not be fully taken advantage of as Toronto’s 7.8% walk rate is one of the lowest in the league.
Hyun Jin Ryu, on the other hand, has confirmed himself as the Blue Jays’ ace once again this season. He has given up more than 2 runs in just two starts this season – at Oakland and at Boston – and has yet to walk more than one batter in a game. While Ryu’s 34.6% hard hit rate is close to a career high, I love his 48.3% ground ball rate and 8.67 K/BB ratio. The 34-year-old has a four-pitch core with an occasional slider, though the cutter continues to be his dagger. And that is a pitch that this Cleveland lineup has been generally unsuccessful against.
I have to leave the bullpens out of this one, especially considering how tough Cleveland’s relief unit has been. Toronto’s bullpen has been fine for the most part but Ryu vs. Morgan is the matchup I want to attack. And this is anything but a lazy “fade the rookie” handicap. In fact, I ran Morgan as anywhere between a 4.4 – 5.0 FIP pitcher with 3+ innings tonight. I trust Ryu against a below-average lineup having some injury issues. Plus I have to respect a Jays lineup that is humming along nicely right now. Maybe this seems a bit too obvious, but I’m a buyer on the first 5 inning line.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -1/2 @ -115 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -1 @ +120 (1/2 unit)
Here I go again with a slightly greedy mini-ladder on the Blue Jays tonight. This is less about Eli Morgan’s debut and more about my high expectations for Hyun Jin Ryu. A 2-0 or 3-1 margin is well within my median win range of 66 – 71% in the first 5 innings, so I’ll roll the dice a little and split this position in half – laying the hook and the full run for a shot at a little plus money. BOL today and let’s dodge some raindrops tonight!
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
