Sunday’s see-saw battle in Oakland brought home the over even with 18 men left on base between the Reds and A’s. Hey, whatever it takes to get the dub is good enough for me. Unfortunately, the new month brought a short Monday slate that I had to pass on. Today’s menu was much more accommodating to deliver a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-2-2023. BOL!
NOTE: Due to out of town jury duty starting tomorrow, the MLB Morning Breakdown will be back later this week or this weekend.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
MINNESOTA TWINS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (MIN -165, 8.5)
The battle between what would have been considered AL Central contenders back in March has turned into a welfare check on the Chicago White Sox. We all know the struggles that the South Siders have faced in the first month of the 2023 campaign. And although my futures positions appreciate their rough start – and the decent beginning by Minnesota – I am always conscious of the impending reversion to the mean that “owes” the Sox some love. With their backs agains the wall, is this the spot for them to turn things around?
The voids left by Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada as they landed on the IL April 11th has been noticeable. Granted, Jake Burger is picking up a ton of slack in Moncada’s absence, slashing .242/.333/.661 with decent defense at third base. But the pre- and post- IL numbers for the White Sox offense is telling, regardless of the exact causes.
CHW Offense, by Period
| G | Slash Line | wRC+ | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru 4/10 | 11 | .282/.334/.434 | 115 | 6.2% | 20.4% |
| 4/11 Forward | 18 | .204/.271/.342 | 70 | 7.0% | 24.5% |
Conversely, Minnesota got a big boost when Jorge Polanco returned from injury on April 21st. His role as regular second baseman is key for a couple reasons, one of which is replacing prolific hitter Luis Arraez in the lineup. The other is the role of “glue guy” in the second or third spot in the lineup. He helps to set the table for the likes of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Plus Polanco has the benefit of hitting behind the hot left-handed hitter Max Kepler, who is smacking righties at a .278/.349/.519 clip.
MIN Offense, by Period
| G | Slash Line | wRC+ | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru 4/20 | 19 | .228/.298/.377 | 90 | 7.2% | 26.1% |
| 4/21 Forward | 10 | .253/.335/.485 | 129 | 10.3% | 24.4% |
J Ryan (R) vs. M Kopech (R)
The other monumental consideration is the starting pitching mismatch between Joe Ryan and Michael Kopech. The latter has failed to pick up where he left off last season, though his .223 BABIP in 2022 pointed towards a little tougher sledding ahead. Even Kopech’s 4.83 xFIP and 4.73 SIERA from a year ago is slightly better than the 5.38 and 5.12 marks, respectively, in the first five starts of 2023. It’s not all doom and gloom though. The 27-year-old’s home run numbers are greatly skewed by the 5 bombs given up in his first start at San Francisco. But Kopech’s big knock is the massive amount of hard contact (58.1%) that has persisted in all five starts. It may be on the cool side this evening but the steady wind out to center could weigh on the kid.
Joe Ryan, on the other hand, has been phenomenal in his five starts. A .231 BABIP presents some concern for negative regression, but if you play more towards his mid-3.00 FIP range with a backstop in the low 4.00s the numbers still look good against a White Sox lineup that has lagged against right-handed pitching. Plus we don’t know if left-handed leadoff man Andrew Benintendi will be in the lineup tonight. It’s not all roses for Joe. In addition to the low BABIP, Ryan’s 46.3% hard contact rate presents opportunity for the downtrodden Chicago offense. Could a shaky outing be the spark that these boys need tonight?
WAGER: Twins First 5 Innings -1/2 -115 (2u) [Listed: Ryan, Kopech]
That is always the risk when the numbers look so lopsided. Joe Ryan stumbling and Michael Kopech putting it together is the combination that Chicago needs to log back-to-back wins after beating Tampa Bay on Sunday. I’ll admit to not feeling as sharp with my first 5 inning handicaps so far in 2023 but I have plenty of ammo to keep firing on them when the price is right. The full game number around -165 is another consideration with Minnesota’s significant bullpen edge. However, I like the gap between these starting pitchers and the 25%-ish differential in how these lineups hit right-handed pitching.
Heading for Home
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