Mother Nature might actually cut today’s action on the diamonds some much needed slack – especially in New York where the undefeated Tigers want to keep their status as the last remaining undefeated team alive. The Tigers/Mets double header makes six games on the slate with a pair of AL Central showdowns pointing us to the home of the division champs in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-4-2024. BOL!
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (MIN -150, 7.5)
The weather is looking better today in the midwest after rough storms passed through this week. But Minneapolis isn’t going to challenge San Diego’s reputation as having the best conditions in the U.S. any time soon. Sub-50 temps with a firm breeze from left to right field will greet the home crowd at the 2024 home opener. So we’re already starting with a tendency to the under via weather alone. And the books are on the ball with a 7.5 run total.
Run stifling conditions may be a breath of fresh air for today’s starting pitchers. When it comes to the sizzling Guardians offense, however, Mother Nature might be on the Twins’ side. Cleveland boasts the league’s second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) while producing the third-most runs (46) in 7 games this season. The top half of their lineup – Steven Kwan, Andres Jimenez, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor – have been very good in the early goings. Of course, they’ve played in each game for a week straight on the west coast. So what’s the impact going to be after their tough schedule and travel? Plus my preseason expectations probably don’t disagree with most of your perspectives: the Cleveland bats will simmer in the coming weeks.
Minnesota has been slow out of the gates offensively, losing up-and-coming infielder Royce Lewis right off the bat. 5 games in and the club has mustered a measly .211/.316/.313 line. And 18 runs with a 3-2 record tells you how big of a role Minnesota’s pitching has played so far. I downgraded the team’s offense this offseason with greater bias in their split against right-handed pitching, yet I still have higher hopes over the long haul of the season – especially as weather shapes up across the country.
T Bibee (R) vs. P Lopez (R)
Pablo Lopez is the guy who can accelerate the Guardians’ cooldown process. Opening Day saw prime Pablo dealing in Kansas City, demonstrating that 6+ innings is what he does – not the exception to the rule. His tendency to create weaker ground ball contact while pounding the strike zone plays right into the Twins’ rock solid defense. Today’s test puts Lopez’ contact-first approach against his opponent’s .320 BABIP to begin the campaign. Especially with the lefty-heavy top half of Cleveland’s lineup firing on all cylinders. That said, his ratcheting up of whiffs over the last couple seasons runs right into the teeth of the low-strikeout Guardians this afternoon.
Don’t read too much into Tanner Bibee’s clunky 5 BB/3 ER season debut against the Athletics. The Cal State Fullerton product burst onto the scene as a rookie last year to some people’s surprise. But those in the know understood that the kid was as MLB-ready as any pitching prospect. 25 starts in his MLB debut season at a 2.98 ERA definitely turned some heads. It earned Bibee projections right around 4.00 and solidified his profile as a 3 K/BB ratio kind of guy with decent swing-and-miss capability. But the 4.22 xFIP is something to keep an eye on moving forward in 2024.
The gap between them is just short of a half-run for most of their effectiveness ranges. Bibee’s downside is generally greater than the more proven veteran, though the impact to win probability is less than 1%. Weather helps keep things in check unless the 25-year-old’s command is more akin to his first start of the season in Oakland. This afternoon’s contest features strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness with the -150 line clearly favoring the pitching matchup as opposed to the significant gap in the lineups’ current forms.
Fence Sitting Will Get You Nowhere
I’m right around 7 runs for this one, which deserves a deeper look at the under. It’s a better proposition in my mind than taking a position on either side. My price range falls in the -140s, making the Twins too pricey and the take back with Cleveland not quite enough. This line is all about Pablo Lopez and the expectation to suppress the Guardians’ rolling offense – with an assist from the weather, of course. Today’s small slate pushes this contest to the forefront and I will certainly be tuning in regardless of whether I take a betting position or not.
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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