The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2021 says adios to the St. Louis Cardinals. After my fourth loss in as many times featuring that club this season, I received an executive order to stay away from any Cardinals games from here on out. It’s simple – the Redbirds and I are just not on the same wavelength. So the hunt for profit continues with my short-term goal to pick up a couple units to close out this week. It’s a short slate on the diamond today so let’s get after it with a solo shot…
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-165)
When in doubt, go with chalk? Nah, that’s not necessarily my style but there is something to be said about not stepping in front of a freight train. And I did just that Tuesday night by backing Ryu and the Blue Jays in a first 5 inning bet against Boston. Naturally that whiffed, although Toronto took care of business last night. So, to a degree, this is a test to see if I am in fact the cooler who is truly one step behind this season. And dogs have been barking quite a bit in the opening weeks of this season, making this the perfect spot for the Mariners, right?
Everyone following the MLB knows just how hot Boston’s bats have been recently. And the flip side to any type of hot streak is that they end at some point. This offense has sputtered at times, namely in Sunday’s doubleheader against Chicago. Even in a 6-3 defeat last night, the Red Sox mustered 10 hits in the cold against a division foe. But taking a side requires a look at relativity between the two lineups. So let’s go to the tale of the tape in regard to how these offenses have fared against right-handed pitching and what they’ve done in the past 7 days:
Seattle vs. Boston Offensive Production
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BB% | K% | HH% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Last 7 Days | .184/.260/.328 | 75 | 8.5% | 26.9% | 33.1% |
| BOS Last 7 Days | .296/.356/.462 | 128 | 8.2% | 21.6% | 33.6% |
| SEA vs. RHP | .232/.298/.394 | 101 | 7.7% | 26.5% | 28.4% |
| BOS vs. RHP | .295/.365/.478 | 135 | 8.9% | 23.5% | 34.1% |
Clearly, the Red Sox have not only been hot in recent days – they’ve been smacking righties around all season. Alex Verdugo, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers are laser-focused at the plate right now. But you can see that the Mariners have had decent success against right-handers and have hit the ball hard lately. Much of this credit is due to a couple red-hot bats of their own. Mitch Haniger (4 HR, 14 RBI, .315/.333/.575) and Ty France (3 HR, 10 RBI, .306/.405/.516) have knocked righties all season, though France’s status is questionable for tonight’s showdown. The forecast calls for cold temperatures with a strong wind blowing to right, seemingly favoring the left-handed bats of Alex Verdugo and Raffy Devers – both of whom should be rested after not starting Tuesday.
Strength in Relief
Somewhat surprisingly, both bullpens enter in fantastic form. Hell, they’ve both been quite solid this season. The Mariners’ Kenyon Middleton, Anthony Misiewicz, and Will Vest have successfully held down some close games. In fact, Seattle has played their opponents tough – 10 of their last 11 games have been 1- or 2-run affairs. And they get the benefit of a day off yesterday, traveling from the Pacific Northwest to Boston. The Sox leaned on their pen last night for 4+ innings and yielded a rare 2 runs in the 9th inning. However, their best relievers – closer Matt Barnes, Matt Andriese, Garrett Whitlock, and lefty Darwinzon Hernandez – all have at least one day of rest. Runs could be very hard to come by in the later innings.
J. Dunn (R) vs. N. Pivetta (R)
Before they get to that point, starters Justin Dunn and Nick Pivetta will dictate the context of this game. Seattle’s Dunn has continued his previous seasons’ struggles with too many walks and fly balls. Like 2019, he has yielded more walks (23.8%) than strikeouts (21.4%) though his home run rate (0.93/9 innings) is much more manageable than last year. Justin is trending towards another 40%+ hard hit rate season even though the velocities of his fastball/slider/curveball repertoire are up so far in 2021. The troubling part for the 25-year-old is that Bogaerts, Martinez, Verdugo, and Devers have all been good against sliders and curveballs.
Boston sends a home run-prone Nick Pivetta to counter Justin Dunn tonight. Sure, he’s given up just one long ball so far this season but has walked a tight rope with a sub-30% ground ball rate. He, too, has a double-digit walk rate (16.9%) and has been smacked for 45.0% hard contact. When you strip it down to the bare bones, we are looking at a pair of very similar pitchers in terms of pitch mix and outcome. The problem with Seattle is that only Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager have done much with sliders in 2021. Pivetta’s slider is his sole plus pitch this season and the cold temperatures may make it tough for him to master it tonight.
Neither pitcher is great and both of them could get punished if they cannot command their secondary pitches in the cold. Mitch Haniger and half of the Red Sox lineup are crushing fastballs so trouble awaits if either pitcher has to rely heavily on the #1. To me, there is just too much firepower on the home team that can take advantage of Dunn’s weaknesses when compared to Seattle’s lineup. France’s absence would be another edge for Boston, though I played it conservatively and assumed he will resume action tonight. I doubt this will be an easy W for the Sox but the agglomeration of many small edges give them the clear advantage.
WAGER: Red Sox -165 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Red Sox Run Line +110 (1/2 unit)
I just can’t pay up and lay -165, even if it is the going rate to back the mighty Red Sox’ bats at Fenway. So I cut the juice in half – effectively down to -133 as a -1 run line with +105 upside if Boston rolls. Don’t lay the -1.5 with the home team unless you have a ton of confidence in Pivetta skating through 5 innings without much damage. Even if a one-run Sox victory pushes the entire position, the manufactured -1 run line is the way I want to play this one.
Around the Horn
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