Gotta give it to the Cincinnati Reds for punishing every mistake that Kumar Rocker and the Texas Rangers made Monday night. Elly himself busted the under 9 wager that was doomed from the start. Props to Brady Singer for his incredible outing – poise and great movement on his pitches led the Redlegs to victory. In full disclosure, three of the four under positions we had on Monday got absolutely throttled in the first couple innings. The bad reads on totals eased up yesterday but all of that is in the rearview mirror. More afternoon ball meets a handful of evening games, including our feature in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-2-2025.
BOSTON RED SOX @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (BOS -120, 7.5)
G Crochet (L) vs. Z Eflin (R)
Trendy World Series pick Boston resumes their series in Charm City against the not to be forgotten Orioles. So far, the Red Sox’ biggest issue has been run production. That puts a greater emphasis on elite starting pitcher Garrett Crochet, who held things in check on Opening Day for his quiet lineup to bring home the glory in the 9th inning. Long story short, the market’s confidence in the Crochet > Eflin delta makes the 1-4 Sox a favorite tonight.
Crochet will have his hands full of Orioles hitters that have popped 10 home runs to date; 6 of which came on Opening Day in Toronto. Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, and Jordan Westburg hit the ground running. They stand as the southpaw’s biggest threats with a strong wind out to left/across the diamond that could come into play for O’Neill, Westburg, and Rutschman – a trifecta already with 7 homers on the season. This is a significant strength vs. strength situation that the O’s seemingly have in their favor.
BAL Splits vs. LHP (2024 & 2025)
| R/PA | HR/PA | BB% | K% | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.23 | 0 | 11.4% | 25.7% | 370/.486/.481 | 187 |
| 2024 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 7.5% | 23.5% | .253/.317/.432 | 115 |
Here’s the catch: Baltimore has faced just one left-handed starter to date. Boston’s Sean Newcomb yielded 4 runs on 8 hits in 4.0 innings of work Monday night. To Crochet’s credit, he is close to 2 runs better than Newcomb despite a sluggish Opening Day start at Texas (5.0 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs). Baltimore’s Opening Day starter Zach Eflin stifled the Blue Jays, giving up 2 runs on a lone homer to Andres Gimenez. The contact pitcher was on point although a .059 BABIP and 44.4% hard hit rate leave the door open for a Sox lineup searching for answers.
Crochet’s advantage over his counterpart is via tremendous swing-and-miss stuff to complement a heavy ground ball approach. But that edge is compromised by a Boston lineup slashing .198/.281/.313 against right-handed pitching to date. Their 28.1% strikeout rate and .264 BABIP say a lot as well. The biggest issue is key left-handed hitters Rafael Devers and Triston Casas being hitless against righties with 17 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. Talk about not picking up on what pitchers are putting down!
Baltimore is overachieving while Boston is well below where they should be as an offense. Will the turnaround be slow or one that gets underway emphatically this evening against Zach Eflin? My inclination is to back Crochet on the first 5 inning line, though laying greater than -120 is a tough sell in Birdland. Maybe we’ll get there over the course of the afternoon. NOTE: The Orioles are anticipated to activate shortstop Gunnar Henderson from the IL tomorrow.
DETROIT TIGERS @ SEATTLE MARINERS (DET -125, 6.5)
T Skubal (L) vs. L Castillo (R)
A similar pitching matchup to the Boston/Baltimore game awaits this afternoon in Seattle where this plucky Tigers club took the first game of the series 4-1 last night. Detroit is without new second baseman Gleyber Torres due to an oblique injury as well as several other position players (Meadows, Vierling, Perez). Yet they’ve still slashed .280/.348/.440 this season. It is fueled by a .374 BABIP (.420 vs. RHP) that will obviously moderate over time. That’s a stark contrast to Seattle’s .166/.285/.297 slash line hampered by a .202 BABIP.
Both teams have struck out a ton, which isn’t too far from their 2024 profiles. That could be just what the doctor ordered for reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal after starting the season against the World Champions’ lineup. Skubal only struck out a pair in the opener but is a 30% K guy with a great opportunity to excel against the M’s. Seattle’s Luis Castillo pitched decently though took the loss against the A’s in his season debut. That outing was a juxtaposition of off-balance hitters and tons of ground balls with a Brent Rooker two-run bomb sprinkled in there.
If we sit here and pretend that the first six games of the season never happened, I make Seattle’s offense about 4-5% better than Detroit’s in this situation. That’s similar to the on paper advantage that Baltimore has over Boston from an offensive standpoint. Plus the starting pitcher deltas in both games are quite similar. Throw in the fact that the Tigers are running better at the plate, backing Tarik Skubal for a strong rebound doesn’t sound like too terrible of an idea. That said, I’m typically lighter on first 5 inning positions and will stick to my approach in this one.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings -125 (to win 0.5u)
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