When the man is dialed in, the man is dialed in. Shane Bieber had the mojo rocking for as long as I needed him to against my Cincinnati Reds, making for a quick first 5 inning scoop. First 5 ringer Mr. Pig had a great breakdown of the same wager but with a very sharp angle. No matter how we got there, we got there in style. But that’s in the past and the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-13-2022 is up now…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK METS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-115)
M. Scherzer (R) vs. A. Nola (R)
Apparently my theme of the week rolls on: handicapping games with reliable, known-quantity starting pitchers early in the season. And no better pair to tame a warm afternoon at Citizens Bank Park than NL East veterans Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. Putting their first starts aside, you have to play the big picture of them being low-to-mid-3.00 FIP, 5+ inning horses. I make Max around a 1/4 run better than Aaron though I respect Nola’s strong work at home (Max doesn’t care where he pitches). And if you look back at last year’s performances where each of these two faced today’s opponent, offenses were generally held in check.
Grip It and Rip It
Who breaks the game open this afternoon? Or does anyone? These are very, very good starting pitchers going up against very capable offenses. Maybe I’m too high on this Mets lineup again but I have them several % more productive in today’s scenario. I get it. Philly added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber – instantaneous run-scoring bats. Mix in some upper 70s temps with a breeze out and any pitcher in Citizens Bank Park has their hands full. Plus most of the teams’ hitters have a long history with their opposing starter:
PHI Hitters w/ .400+ SLG vs. Max Scherzer
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Harper | 12 | .250 | .438 | .667 | 1 | |
| J. Segura | 25 | .320 | .346 | .440 | 1 |
NYM Hitters w/ .400+ SLG vs. Aaron Nola
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Alonso | 29 | .345 | .406 | .724 | 3 |
| F. Lindor | 9 | .333 | .500 | .556 | 0 |
| D. Smith | 34 | .265 | .265 | .529 | 1 |
| J. McNeil | 29 | .276 | .382 | .414 | 1 |
Pretty good history with the Mets’ foundational hitters. However, there’s a couple points against overweighting the above comparison: 1) Castellanos and Schwarber don’t have a history against Scherzer, yet we know they can mash; 2) Lindor and Alonso have played every game since Opening Day and Brandon Nimmo has played all of them except for Opening Day. So I expect a little wind to come out of New York’s offensive sails as Buck Showalter balances player rest and usage. Without any significant adjustments I make the Mets first 5 inning side behind Max around -150. That’s pretty much right at yesterday’s number on Bieber in Cincy.
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings +100 *Scherzer*
It would be fitting for the Mets to put the ice on my nice start to the season. I have to trust my read and my numbers though. Bullpens are fine, but I have the first 5 approach a few % more advantageous for the New York side. Adjust for equal footing between Nola and Scherzer. Adjust for two of the Mets hitters in the table above to sit. Now we’re getting down to the -132ish range. Anything above -115, -120 gets closer to not worth the risk territory. After all, the Phillies can hit and Nola is no slouch.
Heading for Home
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