The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-11-2022 drops after one hell of an Opening Weekend. Not necessarily my betting results – although I’m far from upset with the season’s start – but the amount of action and sweaty bets I got to watch play out. Especially when it came to the unders, which fortunately came through at a 3-1 clip for me the last couple days. April weather can be like that. Regardless, much love to Alex Bregman and the Astros for keeping things rolling yesterday afternoon right into a Monday Solo Shot…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ NEW YORK YANKEES (-110)
A. Manoah (R) vs. J. Taillon (R)
With respect to these lineups, I had both penciled into the top 5 most productive offenses coming into the season. That’s far from a revelation to you folks. And neither’s results to date should be compared at this stage of the season – Toronto’s offensive exchange (.283/.351/.545) with Texas has both of those teams at the top of the board for run scoring after the first series of 2022. But that came in the comfort of the Rogers Centre as opposed to the Yankees slogging it out in less-accommodating weather this weekend. Otherwise, I make the Jays about 3.5% more productive at the plate without respect to specific pitcher tonight.
With All Due Respect
Low-to-mid 40s temps and a mild crosswind roughly equates to a 1/2 run less of offense, making under 9 runs on the full game total or under 5 on the first 5 inning total a consideration. Especially if this matchup comes down to starting pitching. Alek Manoah returns to the scene of his MLB debut in which he tied up Yankees hitters last May for 6.0 innings of shutout ball. Later in the season, New York touched him up for 3 runs. It’s his highly-effective fastball/slider combo that delivered impressive swing-and-miss results as a rookie along with a sub-10% walk rate. No disagreement here with expectations for another season right around the 4.00 FIP mark.
Jameson Taillon had several stretches of impressive work in his 2021 comeback campaign. Some of those ebbs and flows could be seen in his three outings against the Jays, though none of those three starts came in cool weather like tonight. The 30-year-old has had success against key hitters Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.; though Bo Bichette and Vlad, Jr. are more than happy to see the righty on the bump. Taillon is a little more trickier to gauge than Manoah, in my opinion.
The former Pirate has traditionally been super tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, which we saw play out last season. Taillon scratched out a 3.86 FIP/4.26 xFIP against righties in 2021 – about 1 run better than against left-handers. And this Jays lineup is jammed full of righties. Good ones, but righties nonetheless. He may not be as effective as his earlier, pre-injury seasons but I have to respect this strength. Jameson’s post-Pittsburgh season reflects what we see from many starters who have moved on from that organization: less two-seamers and a greater emphasis on striking out batters. Unfortunately, ’21 resulted in a 10%+ drop in ground ball rates and a spike to a 40.2% hard hit rate. Weather may bail him out in that respect tonight, however.
Passing on the Pens
Bullpens now deserve greater consideration with 3-4 straight days of usage. New York’s high-leverage corps worked hard in their series versus Boston, though Aroldis Chapman should be available tonight. On the other hand, Toronto’s back end of Garcia-Mayza-Romano got a much-needed day off on Sunday. The half-run difference between the better Yankees group takes a small haircut via usage, though at this point in time I want nothing to do with the Jays pen after a 6.39 FIP/5.94 xFIP start against the Rangers.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -110
If this handicap truly boils down to Manoah vs. Taillon, I have to pass on the bullpens – especially Toronto’s. Notwithstanding their current form, my expected edge behind the Blue Jays first 5 inning bet ranges from 2% – 6% better than the full game line at the same price. A rough outing from Alek Manoah throws everything out the window though I am willing to back him on this cold evening in the Bronx. After stress testing an equal-footing scenario from these two starters the Jays first 5 inning wager is still the way to go for me.
Heading for Home
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