The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-10-2023 is back after an Easter weekend hiatus…and a dud of a featured handicap on Friday. After spending 8 hours on the highway only to watch the White Sox crumble in Pittsburgh – good thing long term, bad thing for that particular wager – an excellent weekend in a number of ways washed that bad taste from my mouth. Tonight’s feature heads to the desert for a clash of division leaders in the early goings of the 2023 season. Let’s fire off a quick solo shot and get on with the day! Tomorrow is another travel day for me so the Breakdown will return Wednesday. Hopefully after a win. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (ARI -140, 8.5)
Both clubs come into the series on a big high after dispatching division foes and securing first place positions. For now, at least. Arizona’s sweep of the Dodgers was perhaps the most impressive considering their +12 run differential over the three-game series. Both lineups exhibited top 5 form last week and now square off against an interesting mix of starting pitchers.
First off, what do we make of Arizona’s recent bountiful run production and offensive efficiency? Ketel Marte – who I believe is the glue that keeps the top half of this lineup in tact – has woken up from an early-season slumber to be the guy his club needs him to be. Although it is the unsung heroes off of the bench that terrorized southpaw starters last week that should be of serious concern for Wade Miley and the Brewers. Nick Ahmed is making the most of his appearances while veteran Evan Longoria homered in each of his last two starts with a combined 5 for 8.
Flip to the Milwaukee lineup and it’s been the Willy Adames show at American Family Field. Between him and young center fielder Garrett Mitchell, this offense has outpaced where I put them by a considerable amount. Pretty much the same surplus that Arizona has gathered of late. Although I am not rushing to update my ratings quite yet, respect must be given to how the D-backs have performed against lefties – especially Clayton Kershaw. In other words, there’s a lot to like about both lineups’ current form.
W Miley (L) vs. Z Gallen (R)
And that current form could be big trouble for 36-year-old Wade Miley. Sure, he breezed through 6 innings of 3-hit ball against the vaunted Mets lineup in his opener. But his lack of strikeout stuff could be problematic against a hot lineup that has smacked lefties with .482 slugging. It’s way too early to play the real vs. expected differential for starting pitchers in my opinion. However, Miley’s 5.31 xFIP and 5.14 SIERA from his lone start reinforce his big-picture target range of mid-to-upper 4.00 FIP.
Then you look at an underachieving Zac Gallen and his numbers through two starts. The 7.59 ERA looks a little less terrible considering those outings came at San Diego and Los Angeles – divisional teams with considerable experience against him. Plus the 5.08 FIP/5.06 xFIP and 4.76 SIERA speak more towards his macro expectation as a mid-to-upper 3.00 FIP starter. So I am still of the mind that Zac Gallen is anywhere from 1/4 to 1+ runs better to FIP than veteran Wade Miley.
Notwithstanding any meltdowns from these two, the bullpens set up with a slight edge overall to Milwaukee. However, Arizona’s back-end availability appears to be unrestricted tonight – a far departure from manager Craig Counsell’s scenario. Closer Devin Williams is likely good to go after a long layoff before yesterday’s action. But setup men Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki may not be. It’s almost imperative for Wade Miley to get into or through the 6th meeting to keep these bullpens from being more on equal footing in a close contest. That, and the downside risk of a Miley meltdown, make for an interesting dog situation with the Brewers.
WAGER: Brewers +123 (1.5u)
And yes, I’m a sucker for backing Miley and the Brew Crew in a spot where Zac Gallen could be in for his first primo start of the 2023 season. Gallen has a huge edge on paper over Miley, and the D-backs lineup is arguably in the best form possible. But I make this one in the 51-53% win percentage range in favor of Milwaukee and have to take the dog here.
Heading for Home
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