What a fiasco yesterday’s betting card was. Unfortunately, our featured handicap position on the Angels was cancelled twice for pitching changes. My BetCrushers partner Yanni took the bait and went over 6 runs – and those guys got the money. Not I, but that’s on me for going with listed pitchers with that one. Then we saw an excellent outing from Colorado’s Austin Gomber that silenced the Giants bats. Not so much for the Rockies’ bullpen though. Big props to Gomber, who looked fantastic mixing up his stuff and painting the corners. So we take an L for the day and slide into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-10-2021 to find winners!
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (-110)
Despite the scorching hot start by my Cincinnati Reds, these two teams are still my projected contenders for the Central. They battled on Thursday in a de facto pitcher’s duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright. Waino worked out of a bases loaded jam in the first as Burnes sliced his way through the Cardinals lineup. Then Nolan Arenado struck with a 2-run bomb that sealed the deal. The 3-1 victory was pretty much textbook for this team that must get it done with defense and timely hitting.
Thursday’s victory encapsulated these teams’ trajectory in this young season. Milwaukee can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag but is getting phenomenal pitching. St. Louis’ pitching has been solid and their bats have delivered enough to deliver 4 straight wins. In fact, this team has held their opponents to just 4 runs in this stretch – granted, those Ws came against the struggling offenses of Miami and Milwaukee. The latter of which is somewhat surprising except when you go down through the Brewers’ lineup and see that nobody is hitting yet – except for catcher Omar Narvaez and his .444/.500/.778 slash line. Case in point, Christian Yelich is slashing .280/.400/.320 but has 12 strikeouts in just 30 plate appearances. Milwaukee’s sluggish start could get a lift this afternoon against a marginal starter with the wind blowing out though. Is this enough of a boon to get this lineup rolling?
St. Louis has the distinction of having struck out the fourth most frequently in the majors (29.5%) – ironically just two spots behind Milwaukee. However, the Cardinals have outslugged the Brewers by .100 points this season and have been significantly more productive in whole. Credit stud third baseman Nolan Arenado for his .345/.367/.586 slash line and a surprising .455 ISO from Dylan Carlson. My preseason projections lined both of these offenses up against each other as fairly even. But in this young season, St. Louis has outpaced their divisional foe at the plate by about 40% so far. That said, the wild card today is whether first baseman Paul Goldschmidt will be available this afternoon after sitting out Thursday’s home opener with back stiffness. I’ve evaluated this matchup without Goldy in the mix but am optimistic that he returns after two days of rest.
The Bullpen Flip Flop
Both clubs benefitted from a day off yesterday that allowed each group of relievers to get back to full strength. Milwaukee’s bullpen is one of the team’s strong suits, though it has not been as sharp as expected. Josh Hader, JP Feyereisen, and Brad Boxberger have shined while NL RoY Devin Williams has yet to get out of second gear. Still, it is difficult to expect getting much off of this tough relief unit even if they have struggled to keep the ball on the ground so far. They’ve lagged expectation by about a full run in the early goings, posting a 5.43 FIP/5.28 xFIP.
On the flip side, the Cardinals have established a nice late-inning lockdown duo with setup man Giovanni Gallegos and closer Alex Reyes. These guys teamed up for 3 saves in the last 4 games and join Jordan Hicks as a stout group that have answered the call in high-leverage situations. Realistically, it is very tough to imagine either bullpen giving up much this afternoon. This puts a big emphasis on which starting pitcher will hand the ball over with a lead…
A. Houser (R) vs. C. Martinez (R)
The Cardinals had their hands full with Corbin Burnes on Thursday. Burnes dazzled the Redbirds with 6 innings of 1-hit, 9-strikeout dominance that faded when the bullpen entered the contest. But strikeouts are his calling card, as opposed to today’s starter, Adrian Houser. Adrian relies much more on ground ball contact rather than whiffs – something that the Cardinals have struggled with to date. Plus his fastball/curve/changeup repertoire has experienced a steady decline of pitch velocities. The positive angle to this is how he hasn’t fallen susceptible to greater hard contact even if he leaves the door open to the long ball when hitters get the ball up in the air. Did I mention that the wind is blowing out this afternoon?
I could probably make the case for Carlos Martinez having a similar profile as his counterpart. Martinez is also a contact pitcher whose five-pitch arsenal has also seen a velocity decline in recent years. He surrendered 4 runs to the blazing hot bats in Cincinnati last week, though the difference between how that lineup is performing and Milwaukee’s output is night and day. In fact, those two offenses are polar opposites in terms of slugging, ISO, wRC+…take your pick. So I have to expect that Martinez will find more success today than he did in the opener.
WAGER: Cardinals -108 (Good to -130)
Most folks are waiting for the other shoe to drop with this Milwaukee offense. Today could be the day with the wind blowing out, but I’m still shading them towards “underperform” given how they struggled to convert runners to runs against 39-year-old Adam Wainwright on Thursday. So if the prospects for both pitching staffs are held equal, I have to roll with the home squad that is hitting significantly better. If Milwaukee continues to struggle at the dish, Martinez can get by with just 2 runs and work into the 6th inning where the hot Cardinals bullpen takes over to lock this game down.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
As opposed to the weather in St. Louis, Chicago is facing rain and wind blowing in at batters this afternoon. On face value, the weather favors more of a pitcher’s duel especially with the Sox’ powerful lineup potentially being handcuffed. That said, I don’t think these impacts are asymmetrical. If you expect the Royals to hang around in a close one behind veteran Mike Minor, then these conditions squeeze more of an edge for them. I’m more in the camp that these offenses are very mismatched and that the rain/wind combination still leaves a big gap in Chicago’s favor.
I’ll keep this part quick – Chicago has simply picked up where they left off the 2020 season against lefties. The continue to thrive versus southpaw pitching, slashing .378/.507/.885 despite asking for some regression with a .353 BABIP. However, they face a tough adversary on the mound this afternoon so those numbers shouldn’t translate directly. On the flip side, the Royals have cooled off after racking up 25 runs in their first two games against Texas. They’ve scored 8 runs in the last 4 games – although this is skewed after Lance Lynn’s complete game shutout on Thursday. Guys like Michael A. Taylor and the streaky Jorge Soler have been relatively silent since those first two run-fest games, though Mike Matheny can count on Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez as steady bats in his lineup. The question comes down to whether KC can play enough small ball to keep up with the White Sox.
On the bullpen end of things, both units have fared well this season around the low-4.00s FIP mark. This is pretty much on par with my expectations for the White Sox, though KC’s bullpen has outperformed so far this season. Chicago’s unit is quite rested and fully available after two days of no action. The day off also primes the Royals relievers even though the front end of their pen worked quite a bit on Thursday. The White Sox get a slight nod in this department but may be called upon more heavily today with Dylan Cease on the mound, as opposed to Kansas City’s steady Mike Minor.
M. Minor (L) vs. Dylan Cease (R)
Dylan Cease’s kryptonite continues to be his sketchy control and command. His ongoing high walk rate, propensity to give up the long ball, and hard contact are a trifecta that calls for a hard fade on face value. But one could argue that as much as today’s weather poses a threat to the Chicago offense, the wind could actually help Dylan keep the ball in the park. The dude throws hard but is a liability if he’s putting guys on base on a regular basis. However, Cease’s career 1.78 K/BB rate is the major downside for the White Sox today. KC’s small ball approach can work if their at bat sequencing lines up right – death by 1,000 cuts is very much a possibility.
Where Cease’s youthful power lacks in substance, Mike Minor serves this rotation well as a veteran force who has made his mark with great command. The unflappable Minor may play into Chicago’s hands as a lety, though his splits typically don’t offer much to exploit. His 4-hit, 4-run season debut against the Rangers indicates that the Sox can do damage against the career 37.2% ground ball pitcher. However, today’s weather should help his cause as a long ball deterrent. Is it enough to keep his lighter-hitting club in the game though? I say not likely. The White sox are getting on base at a 50% clip against lefties and their power is still a threat regardless of the conditions. Famous last words perhaps? I sure hope not…
WAGER: White Sox -145 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: White Sox Run Line +130 (1/2 unit)
The rule of thumb with run line betting is avoiding it when your side is at home. Unless they’re behind – which is a significant disadvantage to begin with – the home team misses out on hitting in the 9th inning. So this combination position creates a -1 run line that costs -123 to lay but offers +115 if Chicago rolls. All four of Chicago’s wins this season have been decided by no less than 4 runs, though they have their hands full with Minor on the mound. Regardless, I must back the Sox hitters against a lefty with a bullpen ready to intervene and bring this divisional matchup home. This will not be a cake walk for Abreu, Robert, Mercedes, and company but the price is right for me.
Around the Horn
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