Last week’s race at Talladega was expectedly unpredictable. Only a handful of the top drivers made it across the line, and most of their cars were torn up. We doubt that Kansas will be as explosive as Talladega, which makes handicapping significantly more straightforward. That said, let’s jump right into the Kansas NASCAR race preview!
Last week’s plays left a lot to be desired. A prime example was Alex Bowman’s huge self-inflicted mistake that took him out early while leading the race. Aric Almirola did exactly what we expected, which was stay clean and finish in the Top 10. The death knell for a profitable day came when Kurt Busch became the centerpiece of a big wreck shortly after his tenure as race leader:
Kansas Speedway Track Overview
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval built in the latest expansion era of NASCAR tracks around the year 2000. It graduated from an annual stop on the Cup Series circuit to a semi-annual venue that hosts the Round 2 postseason elimination race. Twelve drivers enter Sunday’s 400-mile race as Championship contenders, but only eight will leave town still in the hunt.
Kansas is similar in nature to Kentucky and Chicagoland, which is an additional handicapping factor. The backstretch is slightly banked at 5 degrees, while the rest of the track has progressive banking to promote full-throttle racing. 9-11 degrees of banking on the front stretch transitions to 17-20 degrees in the turns. We expect the strongest drivers to shine on this pure racing track.
Weekend Schedule
The teams have one less day to prepare for the elimination race at Kansas due to the delay at Talladega. However, our go-to NASCAR sportsbooks have their odds up early. Dual practices will take place Friday evening in preparation of Saturday’s single-car qualifying. It all goes down Sunday at 2:30 ET when the field hits the track for 267 laps before four more drivers are eliminated from the postseason.
Who Survives Playoff Elimination?
We didn’t mean to bury the headline from Talladega, which resulted in the sixth-closest finish in NASCAR history. Not only was it close, but Ryan Blaney’s Championship hopes were saved when he edged out Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin for a ticket to Round 3. Alex Bowman’s strong car and good positioning could not overcome driver error. His wreck bumped him from 7th to 9th in the playoff standings.
Barring a disastrous day for Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano, the eight drivers surviving Sunday’s cut will likely be the ones in those positions right not. Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer, and Byron essentially must win at Kansas to make the cut. We noted in last week’s race preview that the guys in the 7th-12th positions were in serious danger of missing out if they didn’t get a win at Talladega or Kansas. Even the top eight drivers need points to stay in contention at Homestead in November.
Handicapping the Hollywood Casino 400
We’ve already stated the obvious that the strongest drivers should shine at Kansas. It’s doubtful that we’ll see The Big One or huge drafting lines that will strand guys in a dead lane. Sunday’s race should be a test of the best teams, with the opening odds to win the Hollywood 400 reflecting that:
Four playoff contenders are clustered around 5/1, with another slug of three sitting at 11/1. This is vastly different from Talladega, where only Joey Logano opened below 10/1 odds to win. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Jr., Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott have won the last eight Kansas races. Guess who occupies six of the seven top slots on the odds board?
In our opinion, betting on guys to win with odds around 5/1 just doesn’t cut it. At a pure racing track like Kansas, we look heavily to matchups and the secondary placing markets like Top 3, Top 5, and Top 10. Early head-to-head matchups are available, so let’s take a look at a short list of guys we are looking to back this week.
Martin Truex, Jr.
MTJ sits atop the odds board for a good reason: he’s been damn good at Kansas since 2017. Martin pulled off the season sweep in 2017 and had 2nd and 5th place finishes in 2018. He didn’t quite have the car to beat this past spring, but we won’t hold that 19th place finish against him. We still rate him as the strongest driver at Kansas since 2017. Additionally, Martin is running very well this postseason with the exception of Talladega (not a historically good track for him).
Remember earlier when we made the connection between Kansas Speedway and the tracks at Chicagoland and Kentucky? Truex has enjoyed recent success at those venues as well. He won the 2017 & 2018 races at Kentucky, and Chicagoland in 2016 & 2017. Talk about being a master of the tri-ovals.
The key negative of MTJ’s recent resume at these three tracks comes when you look at those performances this year. Since switching to the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this season, he’s posted his least-impressive runnings in recent years at Chicagoland, Kentucky, and Kansas. We aren’t overreacting to this, considering that he has been strong at most of his best tracks again this year after moving to the #19 team. Dover, Sonoma, Las Vegas, and Richmond are good examples of his continued prowess on friendly tracks.
You’ll have to lay heavy juice on Truex if you want to play him against Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott. He is currently even money against Kevin Harvick, who is a guy that we have a lot of respect for at Kansas. Keep your eyes open for good opportunities with MTJ after practices and qualifying.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick is one of the strongest contenders at Kansas Speedway, year in and year out. He has finished outside the Top 10 only four times in the last twelve Kansas races. The oddsmakers haven’t docked him too much for the 12th and 13th place finishes in his last two here, and we agree.
Like MTJ, Talladega is not a favorable track to Kevin. Putting that aside, you have to respect that he is also in great form. Prior to last week’s race, Harvick had a streak of six straight Top 10 finishes that included a win at The Brickyard and only one non-Top 5 finish. He’s been hit-or-miss at Kentucky and a Top 10 finish is essentially a given at Chicagoland. The prices on Kevin Harvick are very similar to Truex’s and warrant a wait-and-see approach for better opportunities.
Chase Elliott
If you want to talk about drivers whose Championship hopes are on the ropes, look no further than Chase Elliott. He had solid momentum going into the postseason and spiked a win in the Round 1 eliminator at the Roval. Then Chase suffered a major setback at Dover with engine troubles on lap 8, which may have sealed his fate.
Chase Elliott is the defending Hollywood Casino 400 champion and backed up last October’s win with a 4th place finish this spring. The spring race checkered flag was within reach but Elliott was unable to seal the deal, falling behind Keselowski, Bowman, and Jones. He’s been very good here in his last four races with three Top 5 finishes and a 12th. On the flip side, we have to acknowledge Chase’s mediocre performances at Kentucky and Chicagoland the past couple times out.
Chase Elliott (+100) over Kyle Busch
Elliott’s aggressiveness and tenacity propelled him to a gutsy win at the Roval and salvaged a Top 10 at Talladega. We expect him to run with purpose and determination in the Kansas eliminator race this weekend, but how do you bet him properly? One way is a play against Kyle Busch, who is certainly no slouch at Kansas. Kyle was Chase’s runner up last year and is a 2016 former champion. Fading Kyle is a challenging position, but we feel strongly that Chase Elliott is going to bring his A+ game out of pure necessity this weekend in Kansas and succeed.
Top 10 Drivers
Aric Almirola
We dialed up AA’s number last week for a Top 10 finish and he delivered. Like Elliott, he drove with determination after slipping out of the Top 10 when he was left high and dry in a dead lane. Nonetheless, he climbed back into contention and pulled out a 4th place finish at a track where we circled him as a legitimate contender.
Almirola has snuck his way into the Top 10 in three of the last four Kansas races. Those were 9th, 9th, and 10ths so we’re not going to call him a lock by any means. These are slim margins for a guy that we tagged with a 40% chance to T10 this week. However, you have to weigh the payoff with the risk, and Aric is close to 100/1 to win the race. If Aric Almirola gets posted at +150 or better to Top 10 at Kansas, we’ll be buyers.
Erik Jones
There’s no bigger enigma for Sunday’s race than Erik Jones. This kid has been on a terrible run since his win at Darlington. His prospects for the postseason were dashed week after week from that point forward. A 39th place finish at Indy was followed up by 36th, 38th, and 40th in Round 1 of the NASCAR Playoffs.
Erik’s current form is about as low as it gets. But his performances at Kansas have been very good since moving to the Joe Gibbs Racing team in 2018. Jones finished 7th, 4th and 3rd since hopping in the #20 Toyota. Will his success here outweigh the funk he’s been in since Labor Day weekend? That’s the handicapper’s dilemma. We’ll need to see at least +150 in the Top 10 pools to consider a play on Erik Jones.
Stay Tuned
The NASCAR betting markets are unpredictable in many ways. Perhaps the most frustrating way is the timing in which the various books open and reopen wagering. Head-to-head matchups will soon be expanded and alternative placing markets like Top 3, 5, and 10 will pop on various days through the week. Our final handicapping article will drop Saturday night or Sunday morning after the full range of wagering options are up. In the meantime, keep in the loop with our growing betting card on the NASCAR page at BetCrushers.com or our Twitter feed.
