Monday’s break from betting the MLB was a good example of “If the glove don’t fit, you must”… OK, maybe that’s not the most appropriate analogy. There’s no shame in sitting on the sidelines when the games don’t show me much. It’s that time of year and the Monday card was short as usual.
We ended the weekend on a bad note as Zach Davies got absolutely destroyed by Kyle Schwarber. Davies coughing up 7 RBIs on 2 homers to Schwarber was not good for the future of that game, but we survive to see another week of opportunities. NASCAR H2H matchup bets have been very good this season and Watkins Glen should be a good one this weekend. Shameless plug: keep an eye out for our weekly NASCAR Cup race preview and pre-race analysis articles.
Restraint with the MLB cards has been an overall positive this summer. But you’re not reading this because of restraint, you want the goods. So here’s what we’re seeing for Tuesday’s full card:
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
When the Dust Settles: Giants +117
The Giants were scorching hot coming out of the ASB, going on an 11-2 run and making a legitimate charge at the NL Wild Card. Philly hasn’t put forth that crazy of a streak in the second half of the season, yet they hold a 1.5-game lead in the Wild Card standings over San Francisco. These clubs are on the outside looking in and should have plenty of motivation to scratch and claw for wins in this 3-game series.
Although San Francisco is 13-4 since the break, they’re a middling 2-2 in their last 4 games. Their bats may have come back to a more realistic level from the lofty production levels of early July. The Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 and all of those wins have come by a single run. Whether one should expect regression with these close calls or this is a sign of a team sustaining a long run, I can’t tell you.
What I can tell you is that Philadelphia picked up some much-needed wins recently against Detroit and Pittsburgh, going 4-1 in those series. The wins were sandwiched between a solid 2-2 split against the Dodgers and a disappointing series loss to the NL East-leading Braves at home. The Phillies need some wins this week to stay in the hunt.
Beede vs. Smyly
This isn’t Verlander vs. Kershaw, but these starters take the mound to pick up much-needed wins for their teams tonight. Tyler Beede is the definition of “hit or miss” with 5 of 11 starts yielding 4 or more earned runs. Despite a 1.48 WHIP, he is usually effective in suppressing runs. Something to look at is a 2.07 K/BB ratio that looks low on face value but may actually disguise the fact that he’s yielded only 2 walks in his last 4 starts.
Another concern with Beede is a 1.66 HR/9 rate that was punctuated by a 3-homer game against the Cubs in his last start. That was indicative of a 45.6% hard contact rate that could be trouble against the Philly bats. Otherwise, a 17.1% HR/FB rate coupled with a 36.3% FB rate is respectable at a small stadium like Citizens Bank Park.
His counterpart, Drew Smyly, had a rough year as a Texas Ranger. 9 of his 13 appearances were “starts” although he pretty much played the role of a long reliever. He had a 1.67 K/BB rate in Texas that’s even lower than Beede’s. Combine that with a 1.91 WHIP and you’ve got a volatile compound that opposing hitters repeatedly blew up.
Home runs were another Achilles’ heel for Smyly as a Ranger. Either way you look at it, 3.33 HR/9; 23.5% HR/fly ball rate on 49.7% fly balls, 50.6% hard contact, etc.; it was ugly. All is not lost with him though. His 8.42 ERA/6.35 xFIP shows that the numbers may paint a darker light. Smyly has made one start with Philly, racking up 8 strikeouts in 6 innings while giving up only 1 run, 4 hits, and 2 walks.
The Least Worst
Beede is no Cy Young candidate but we handicap him to have a higher probability of success than Smyly tonight. Both offenses measure similarly in both effectiveness and efficiency right now. I acknowledge that San Francisco’s strong run and hot offensive output could be waning. It is doubtful that such a level was sustainable with this roster, but Drew Smyly could keep the fires burning for at least one more game.
Despite a strong start against Pittsburgh on the 21st, Smyly is a strong fade for us. At the same time, Beede is not the model of consistency by any means. However, I’d gladly take his “coin flip” over the strong tendency for Smyly to flame out quickly and leave a mess. His 6-inning gem against Pittsburgh matched his season high for IP (matching one other outing) and should be questioned because of the competition level.
Assuming both starters don’t make it far tonight, bullpens will play a major role in the decision. San Fransisco’s relief unit has been in lockdown mode and all key personnel should be available after Monday’s day of rest. Philly’s bullpen continues to be middle-of-the-road but will have added stress if Smyly can’t go more than 4 innings. Though Smyly benefitted from a one-month break in the MLB before going into his NL debut, he’s back in the pressure cooker.
