So the Reds bullpen CAN hold a lead. Saturday’s Reds F5 -136 wager pushes as Mikolas dueled Castillo to a 0-0 deadlock after 5 innings. The Cards then cracked Castillo for a solo shot but the Reds answered and held on for a 3-2 win. My hesitancy to get behind the Reds bullpen was not fully justified as freshly-returned Amir Garrett paired with Michael Lorenzen for 3 innings of work.
Both bullpens got some much-needed rest with each starter going 6 innings. Cincy’s unit was bolstered yesterday by the return of Garrett from the IL and Iglesias from paternity leave. My initial breakdown of Sunday’s MLB card leans to the Reds again but I am not completely sold on DeSclafani. Furthermore, St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty could log another sharp outing and give the Reds some troubles at the plate.
My handicapping relies on gauging starting pitching as much as it does estimating the performance of a team’s offense, defense, and bullpen. We are getting into the time of year when many call-ups and other unproven pitchers get the nod. I like to monitor these guys until I am comfortable handicapping and wagering on/against them. I am also unwilling to overpay to play against bad teams and bad starters. That being said, I don’t have any MLB plays worth placing my money behind today. My eyes will be on live betting scenarios involving sketchy bullpens called upon to hold a lead!
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 @ New Hampshire
With no pre-game MLB plays in store, I’ll dip back into Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at New Hampshire. Earlier this week I circled two matchups (Larson over Jones, Blaney over Bowyer) that had value in my opinion. However, Kyle Larson found the wall in Saturday’s early practice so he’ll be running with his backup car. Even though I like Larson’s past results at New Hampshire much better than Erik Jones’, Jones has had a great week at the track so far. Jones has run only 3 Cup races here in his short career and he has been running well lately so this is no longer a viable play.
Qualifying was complicated on Friday with a fresh application of speed dry from the Xfinity qualifiers minutes before the Cup boys took their turns. The material was located right into a turn and essentially blocked off a prime groove. If you wanted to run that line and went off early, traction was a big problem. While qualifying set the field for today’s showdown, it wasn’t necessarily indicative of how the teams will perform. On the other hand, qualifying position is essential at New Hampshire. The short-track racing packages make it very difficult to pass during green flag racing.
Blaney and the Youth Movement
Ryan Blaney is a young gun that we like to back in the right situation. Outside of the recent 400 race at Daytona, he’s placed top 15 in the last 6 contests. He’s raced at New Hampshire 6 times, placing top 20 in his last 5 runnings. Blaney shows signs of continual improvement here, notching top 10 finishes in his last 2. He did extremely well in qualifying (5th) as well as Saturday’s practices (5th, 1st).
Blaney #12 (-140) over Bowyer #14
Clint Bowyer is a seasoned veteran who has been quite inconsistent this year. He finished 6th last week at Kentucky but has been outside the top 30 in 3 of his last 5 races. Clint had a pair of 7th place finishes in New Hampshire’s 2017 runnings, but has been outside the top 20 in 5 of the last 7 races there. He wasn’t too bad in qualifying (16th) and Saturday’s practices (13th, 13th), though Blaney has a huge advantage over him with track position and a better car. -140 is a hefty price to lay but Blaney should be able to defend against Bowyer.
Buy or Sell Kurt?
Kurt Busch has placed in the top 15 in his last 6 races, including last week’s win at Kentucky. He has top-10’ed 3 out of his last 4 runs at New Hampshire and sits in the #3 spot for today’s race. Saturday’s practices (21st, 14th) weren’t spectacular but I think this team has things moving in the right direction.
Kurt Busch #1 (-105) over Bowyer #14
I may be putting too many eggs in the anti-Bowyer basket with a second play against him. Bowyer is one of those guys who can slip off the radar for a while then unexpectedly log some strong finishes. 2019 has been an inconsistent year for him so far, while Kurt has been lurking around the top 10 for the past 6 weeks. Kurt is often shadowed by his brother but can provide bettors value when his team is clicking.
What About Denny’s Damage?
Denny Hamlin was a guy I looked to fade after qualifying 23rd on Friday. He sustained damage after smacking the wall, which required a lot of body work before Saturday’s practices. Switching to the backup car spent some time that could have been used for fine-tuning. However, he posted 10th & 2nd in Saturday’s practice sessions. Perhaps the garage boys took care of business after all? I am tempted to grab him at +1650 to win but am very cautious because he has to make up a ton of positions against a strong field sitting at the top. If his number drops to +2000 or better before the green flag flies, I’ll consider a 1/4-unit bet on Hamlin.
