The NASCAR postseason kicks in after upcoming Cup Series stops at Darlington and the Brickyard. We hold a few small Championship futures tickets made before the season began, but now it’s time to look for value as we near the final ten races of the season. Handicapping the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs requires following a progression through the final regular-season races and three sets of cuts in the playoffs.
Without going into the history of the NASCAR playoffs, we’ll break it down simply for our purposes. Race teams qualify for the playoffs by winning a regular-season Cup Series race or earning enough points throughout the season to round out the top 16 in the standings. The only points a team carries over into the playoffs are playoff points. 5 playoff points are gained for each win, 1 point for each stage win, and up to 15 points based on the final regular-season position. Here are the standings with two races to go before the playoffs commence:
The playoff contenders will be cut to a field of 16 after the Darlington and Brickyard races are run. Each of the 16 teams will receive 2,000 points plus the playoff points they previously accumulated. Further cuts will take place after the following races:
- Las Vegas, Richmond, Charlotte Roval: CUT TO 12
- Dover, Talladega, Kansas: CUT TO 8
- Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix: CUT TO 4
- Homestead: CHAMPIONSHIP RACE
Narrowing the Field
Handicapping the 2019 NASCAR playoffs at this point requires a touch of game theory to progress the field through the three cuts and into the final race at Homestead. Realistically, only the top 18 drivers are still in the playoff hunt barring a first-time winner this season. Kyle Busch is sitting in very good shape with a 13-point playoff point lead over Denny Hamlin. However, there are some strong drivers on his heels that can make up ground in twelve races.
The 13th through 16th slots are still in play between Almirola, Jones, Newman, Suarez, and Boyer. Their viability as 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Champions is extremely low due to their major disadvantage in playoff points. Based on preliminary handicapping of the final regular-season races at Darlington and Indy, I don’t see Clint Bowyer pushing his way into the postseason. Aric Almirola has the greatest chance to stumble at these venues and lose his playoff position to Daniel Suarez, but today’s top 16 are likely the ones who will be in the playoffs.
Surviving the Cut to 12
The first round of playoffs begin at Las Vegas, head to Richmond, then end at the Charlotte Roval. It will be the second race held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this year. Joey Logano took the checkered flag in Vegas earlier this season on the forefront of his title defense campaign. This is a race where the bottom half of the 16 will struggle to make up much ground. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney could creep up on Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman, but expect most of the top five drivers to begin to distance themselves in the playoff standings.
(c) MRN.com
Richmond is a track where only a handful of teams have been consistently strong in the last few years. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano should post great results while Kyle Busch is a threat to win there for the third time in four races. Then the action shifts to the newest course on the Cup Series circuit, the Charlotte Roval. This track made its NASCAR debut last year and is a tough one to handicap with an extremely short background. It’s a brutal (and very volatile) place to cut the field at. This is where we’ll likely see four of the five teams that started the playoffs at the bottom drop out, with Erik Jones being the lone survivor of that group.
Moving On:
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Joey Logano
- Denny Hamlin
- Brad Keselowski
- Kevin Harvick
- Chase Elliott
- Kurt Busch
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- Alex Bowman
- Erik Jones
Finding the Top Half
The top twelve of the playoff contingent roll into Dover to begin the second stage. Guys like Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman will likely struggle while Martin Truex, Jr. should have a great opportunity to follow up his spring win on the one-mile oval with a strong finish. Chase Elliott must make significant headway at Dover; a track where he’s posted six Top 5s in seven career Cup races.
Talladega is a track where anything can happen. The “Big One” always has the potential to take out a group of drivers, leaving other playoff contenders in great position to climb the ladder. Joey Logano has been as strong as they come at Talladega in recent years. The second cut comes after the Kansas race, and it’s tough to find a lot of consistency at this pivotal track. It may be too late for guys like Erik Jones and Kyle Larson, so a win here will be essential for either of them to survive the cut.
Moving On:
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Joey Logano
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
- Kurt Busch / Kyle Larson
Slash and Burn
The final cut stage begins at Martinsville; a track where several of the remaining drivers have seen recent success. Expect Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., and Brad Keselowski to have strong performances on the short track. In fact, Brad may very well need to pull off a 2019 Martinsville sweep to stay inside the cut line.
Texas may be a stumbling block for top dogs Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. If Brad wasn’t able to score a win in Las Vegas and/or Martinsville, this could be the race that puts him on the outside looking in. On the flip side, Kevin Harvick has the results at Texas that lead us to think this will kick his late push into gear. Harvick’s momentum should translate over to Phoenix and keep him in the playoffs for the final showdown.
(c) motorsport.com
The penultimate race of the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season could be the last gasp for defending Champion Joey Logano, as well as Brad Keselowski. Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick should solidify their berths in the final race with strong performances at ISM Raceway. I wouldn’t bet against Mr. Phoenix, Kyle Busch, who should nail down his spot in the final four at one of his favorite tracks. Busch has won the last two runnings at ISM Raceway and has seven Top 5 finishes in his last eight there (the “outlier” was 7th place).
To the Finale:
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin / Brad Keselowski
Where to Put Your Money?
You probably noticed that there wasn’t a lot of talk about Denny Hamlin in this article so far…so why do we have him as a probable title contender? Denny is scorching hot right now and should carry a ton of momentum into the playoffs. His track record at the final ten tracks don’t pop out at you as stellar, but the #11 team has strung together six straight T5s that include a pair of wins (Pocono, Bristol). Plus, he currently sits in the 2nd position in playoff points.
Let’s be honest, Kyle Busch has been the favorite to win the Championship for most (if not all) of the 2019 season. He may stumble a bit in the Dover-Talladega-Kansas stage but he dominates at too many of the playoff tracks to be counted out. Brad Keselowski will need to spike at least one playoff race to even make it to the finals. Las Vegas and Martinsville could be those opportunities that get him to Miami with a shot at the title.
Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick are a pair of drivers who are always a threat. Harvick currently has the biggest gap of our projected finalists behind Kyle Busch, while Truex sits only one point behind Denny Hamlin. These guys should be in the hunt with an expected string of strong performances this fall.
We don’t have Joey Logano repeating as the NASCAR Cup Series Champion, primarily due to a rough stretch at Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix. In full disclosure, I booked four futures tickets prior to the season opener at Daytona. Two of which look very lackluster right now. Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott at +700 are severely overvalued.
Current Odds to Win the NASCAR Championship (8/26/2019)
- Kyle Busch: +350 to +385
- Martin Truex, Jr.: +400 to +550
- Kevin Harvick: +450 to +550
- Denny Hamlin: +600 to +750
- Brad Keselowski: +850 to +880
Looking for a Long Shot?
Chase Elliott sits in the 7th position in playoff points heading into Darlington. He seems to have regained his early-season form and could shake things up in the post-season. Darlington should be good for him, though Indy isn’t one of his better tracks. But once he makes it to the playoffs the track lineup is not unfavorable at all. Chase won the Dover and Kansas races in 2018, while surviving Talladega this spring to take the checkered flag there. His odds to win the Championship are in the +1200 range.
