Dale Earnhardt, Jr. said it well before Friday’s final practice that he expected an 80% chance of getting caught up in a crash at Talladega when he still raced. It’s inevitable. It’s The Big One. And this is the BetCrushers final NASCAR handicapping at Talladega.
Weekend Recap
The dual practice runs didn’t tell us much when it comes to handicapping this race. More guys ran longer in the early session than the second one, which they mostly used to gear up for Saturday’s qualifying. Perhaps our NASCAR handicapping colleague said it best between the Friday sessions:
The teams tested their cars in a variety of situations, including drafting for race day and single-car runs to mimic qualifying. @NASCARStyleOdds alluded to the fact that nothing replicates live racing at the Talladega Superspeedway. This tri-oval is wicked and it makes people do some really reckless stuff that you cannot simulate on Friday or Saturday.
Dale, Jr. and Jeff Burton stressed the importance of qualifying strong at Talladega. In addition to having a better pit box selection, high qualifiers have the opportunity to start at the front and stay ahead of the mess. This is one of those tracks where riding in the lead pack can mean staying out of the fray and surviving the race. That said, there’s enough difference between qualifying trim and race trim to where we’re still in the dark about fast these cars will be in 500 miles of battling.
Chase Elliott led the field Saturday afternoon in qualifying with a scorching sub-49.7 lap. You think this kid is determined to get back in playoff contention after the disappointing engine failure at Dover? He is followed by fellow Hendrick Chevrolets driven by Alex Bowman and William Byron. Denny Hamlin left the track abruptly before finishing a single lap, putting him at a huge disadvantage in the race. His penalty for the blown motor is a starting spot at the back of the pack.
Odds on the Move
We took a snapshot of the opening odds to win the 1000Bulbs.com 500 in our race preview. The underlying observation was that you rarely see a board with only one driver below 10/1. This became even more muddled after Friday’s practices. Looking further down the list, you’ll see that the longest of long shots have migrated from 1500/1 to 150/1.
This is a race where even the marginal drivers get some play. At odds over 1000/1, why not? Of course, it only takes a few bucks wagered on those guys to warrant a severe odds adjustment. This pushes the payout for decent drivers up, which is pure opportunity for us. Our early 1/4-unit position on Alex Bowman at +1760 popped to +2700 after an uneventful day of practice. On the heels of that foreshadowing, why don’t we look at our spotlight drivers for Talladega?
Revisiting the BetCrushers Spotlight Drivers
Our handicapping approach to Talladega is slightly different from most other tracks. We’re still limiting our to-win exposure to a half-unit on an individual driver and typically no more than a whole unit overall. Matchups are the core of our betting card, although we must look at the Top 3, 5, and 10 markets depending on the situation.
Alex Bowman: Our Key to Talladega
It’s no surprise that this kid is in position to make some noise this week. Bowman was a key driver in our race preview that earned our early money. Here’s what we saw in Alex this weekend:
Assuming Bowman stays clean on Sunday (which is a big assumption), he should have a sizable advantage over Ryan Blaney. We love Bowman’s current form as a hungry runner-up who needs to outrace guys like Blaney that sit outside of the playoffs cut line. Blaney should be hungry too, but the fact that he’s failed to make the Top 10 at Talladega in his last six races gives the edge to Bowman in this matchup.
There wasn’t anything in the practice or qualifying runs that pushes us to hedge our existing wagers on the #88 team. In fact, the inflation to 27/1 odds was all we needed to see to finish off a 1/2-unit to-win play on Alex Bowman. Combined with the pick ’em matchup against Ryan Blaney, we’re happy with the +2230 blended odds to round out our position on Alex Bowman.
Joey Logano: Public Enemy #1
Is it wise to get behind a guy that pissed off some drivers last week at Dover? He’s been the most prolific driver at Talladega since the 2015 fall race and has held steady as the (slight) favorite this week. We’d rather not extend further when it comes to picking the race winner, so keep your eyes on the Top 5 market that opens Sunday morning. This could be a viable way to play Logano if the price is +200 or better, blending his strength as a Top 5 driver with a reasonable return for the risk that Talladega presents.
Kurt Busch: No Brotherly Love
The Top 10 markets have been very disappointing so far, to say the least. Our intent was to take a guy like Kurt Busch who finished in the Top 10 in seven of the last ten Talladega races and get +140 or better. Even money doesn’t move the needle for us in this scenario, but Thursday evening’s expanded matchup menu presented a different approach:
Kurt Busch (+105) over Kyle Busch
Despite that shameless plug for our Twitter account, the point we want to make is that this Busch v. Busch matchup is very advantageous for Kurt. Not only is he 8-2 in his last ten head-to-head matchups against Kyle at Talladega, he is 5-0 in the last five playoff races run on this 2.66-mile tri-oval. This goes against a postseason heuristic of avoiding backing a non-playoff contender against a playoff driver, but the facts are highly supportive of Kurt Busch.
Aric Almirola: Keeping Clean at Talladega
Being a successful bettor requires sound handicapping and a disciplined approach. We laid out a plan of attack for several shortlisted drivers in the Top 10 markets this weekend, including Aric Almirola. At an estimated 45% chance to finish in the Top 10, we were willing to take +140 or better when those odds became available.
Aric Almirola (+100) to Top 10
The defending 1000Bulbs.com 500 champion has not failed to place in the Top 10 at Talladega since the 2016 fall race. Misfortune can strike at any time, but six Top 10s in a row speaks volumes to a handicapper. After digging deeper into the #10 team, you have to acknowledge that he has a great strategy here. He started no better than 22nd in four of these six races, yet found a way to stay clean and finish the race strong. We’ll backtrack on our early-week figures and increase his Top 10 expectations to about 60% and take the +100.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.: Never a Dull Moment
The rap on Ricky is that he’s an accident waiting to happen. This liability is at its greatest here at the home of The Big One. Case in point, Stenhouse led the spring race for 16 laps and then lost control after contact with Erik Jones. His reputation as a boom-or-bust driver at the super-speedways of Daytona and Talladega comes from moves like this:
Stenhouse doesn’t have the consistency that we get from Logano and Almirola, so the +100 price to finish in the Top 10 has considerably less allure. He is a threat to win this thing and a certain member of JJ’s household agrees by holding a small ticket for him to win the 1000Bulbs.com 500. However, we must pass on Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. due to the low price on him in the Top 10 betting market.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Talladega
- Alex Bowman (+2230) to Win (1/2 unit)
- Alex Bowman (-115) over Ryan Blaney
- Kurt Busch (+105) over Kyle Busch
- Aric Almirola (+100) Top 10
