It’s amazing to think that the MLB season is still young despite being in its 4th full week. Teams are starting to develop their identities, some of which we already knew about while others have been a bit of a surprise. For the most part, I have shed my pre-season projections for current-year metrics on batting and relief pitching. Starting pitching is always dependent on expert opinions from Fangraphs.com as well as statistics. The magic that a handicapper must impart into this essential aspect is blending a starter’s current form with season-long expectations.
Yesterday’s betting started with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have been surprisingly successful at the plate even though they lost Goldschmidt and Pollock to other clubs. They swept the Pirates in a 4-game series in Pittsburgh with good pitching and a couple dominant offensive performances. Yesterday’s +124 money line win was a great way to cash in on their streak.
The Yankees were very disappointing in a loss to the Angels last night, but every streak must come to an end. They had been getting it done with some gutsy performances and then hit a wall at the end of the series. It will be interesting to monitor their games in the coming days to see if they slide or can rebound.
Luis Castillo did not bring his A-game last night against the Braves and still managed to only surrender 1 run to that tough lineup. He left the bases loaded with none out in the 7th. My +145 run line bet was in jeopardy as the Reds’ lead was only 3-0 at that pivotal moment. David Hernandez came out of the pen in the rain to fan 3 straight batters. Then the game goes to rain delay. If it gets called early, the bet is cancelled. Instead, the game resumes sometime later and the Braves cut into the lead 3-2, only for the Reds to get one back and cover the bet. Fortunately, I was asleep before the game resumed…so no sweating that dramatic ending.
On to a full slate of Friday night MLB action, from which I’ve punched three tickets. Let’s dive on in…
Oakland A’s @ Toronto Blue Jays
Mike Fiers leads the A’s into the Rogers Centre for Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s debut. Oakland is fresh off a sweep of Texas, which followed Toronto’s sweep of the A’s in Oakland. Fiers has given up 6 runs in each of his last 3 starts and has a 60% fly ball rate this season. He was clubbed by the Jays in his last outing and I imagine Toronto is focused on repeating that performance.
Marcus Stroman has started the 2019 season with a decent string of outings, including an 8-inning, 1-run performance at Oakland. He has not given up a home run yet and is sporting a 56% ground ball rate. The Jays stumbled in their last 2 games after going on a nice 6-1 run. With no remarkable differences between these clubs’ offenses or bullpens, you have to look at the starting pitching matchup. Strong edge to Stroman here.
Lay the Lumber: Toronto -125
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
After a 4-2 home stand, the Cubs head to Arizona with Kyle Hendricks on the mound tonight. He’s been solid in his last 2 but he gave up 6 earned runs and 18 hits in 8.1 innings in the 2 road starts prior. It’s hard to tell whether this is a home/road split issue or if he simply started the season rough. His last start at Wrigley against Arizona had 11 strikeouts. Surely, the Cubs want to see a repeat performance tonight.
Robbie Ray is still looking for his 1st win of the season, despite posting 4 of 5 decent outings. He could stand to be sharper and most likely will need to be against the Cubs for the D-backs to have a chance. As mentioned above, Arizona returns home after a 4-game sweep of the Pirates and were 4-2 prior to that series. I believe that the home club has a better bullpen and a comparable lineup at this point in the season.
Play the Streak: Diamondbacks -105
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Texas looks to get back on track in Seattle after dropping 4 in a row. Shelby Miller may not be the guy to put the brakes on the Mariners’ offense, considering he has been getting knocked around this season. He has a low 36% ground ball rate and his longest outing lasted only 5.1 innings, which puts pressure on an already-poor bullpen.
Yusei Kikuchi is in a similarly-difficult spot having to slow down a productive Texas lineup. The Japanese transplant is trying to find his way in the MLB, which has been a mediocre showing to date. Seattle’s performance has ebbed and flowed in this short season. They won 14-2 last night after dropping 3 straight, which came after winning 3 in a row. Both teams sport powerful lineups, though I give a slight edge to Seattle’s relievers. Neither pitcher offers a lot of confidence, though I am fading Miller and the potential for a very short outing for him tonight.
