What a way to end Round 1 of the NASCAR Playoffs at the Charlotte Roval last weekend with a huge performance from Chase Elliott. He persevered after a major miscue mid-way through the race to get the victory. This cemented his position in Round 2 (and a profitable day of handicapping), which starts off at Dover International Speedway. Dover is a good track for competitive racing, so let’s jump into the BetCrushers Dover NASCAR race preview.
Dover International Speedway Track Overview
This NASCAR Cup Series mainstay is celebrating its 50th year of racing as the circuit’s premier 1-mile track. New Hampshire and Phoenix are also 1-mile tracks but have nowhere near the recognition of Dover’s “Monster Mile”. The track itself had seen little change in its first 25 years, though it was converted from an asphalt surface to a concrete one in 1995.
Although the Monster Mile doesn’t get the speeds that the longer tracks do, racing here is highly competitive. 25-degree banking in the oval’s turns and 9 degrees in the straightaways promotes multiple grooves and side-by-side racing. It may look like just another oval racetrack, but spectators are rarely disappointed with the intense action here.
Weekend Schedule
Teams are back on more of a traditional schedule leading up to the Sunday afternoon race. Back-to-back Friday afternoon practice sessions will give us a lot to think about for our final handicapping. Who can sustain fast speeds in the short- and long-runs? The 20-lap metrics are essential to understanding which cars can make up or extend ground in green-flag conditions. Additionally, the 5- and 10-lap numbers give us an indication who will be ready to sprint off of a restart or make a final push for the checkered flag.
Qualifying takes place Saturday afternoon, about 24 hours before the Sunday showdown on the Monster Mile. Our final handicapping article will drop Sunday morning after the full gamut of bets are posted by the books we have accounts with. Be sure to keep in touch with our Twitter account to catch any additional plays between this and Sunday’s article.
The NASCAR Playoffs: Round 2 Begins
The Roval delivered a knockout blow to Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, and Erik Jones. This was no surprise to Busch and Jones, who were unable to get anything going in Round 1. Almirola and Newman scrapped to the end but were unable to jump ahead of Clint Boyer or pole sitter William Byron. Here are the standings heading into the Round 2 opener at Dover:
Round 2 features races at Dover, Talladega, and Kansas. The current cut line shows Kyle Larson occupying the highly-coveted 8th slot. Going into this weekend, Larson holds the slimmest of margins over 9th through 12th and must be nearly flawless in these next three races to survive the cut to eight.
Our NASCAR Playoffs preview article foresaw the top seven positions filled by those shown above, and anticipated either Kurt Busch or Kyle Larson sliding into Round 3 right above the cut line. Kyle Busch, who “strategically” cut his day at the Roval short, still occupies the #1 spot even though Martin Truex, Jr. and Chase Elliott locked up wins in Round 1.
Hunting for Winners on the Monster Mile
Dover’s Monster Mile may be small when compared to tracks like Talladega and Daytona, but don’t underestimate how fierce the competition is here. You can find guys in this condensed playoff field who stand out above the others, but how do you profit from them? We applied one winning philosophy from Richmond in our Roval race preview:
We also learned that if you handicap a guy to be the strongest driver in the field not named Kyle Busch, you better find a way to make money off of him.
Our bread and butter this season has been playing head-to-head matchups, as well as the Top 3, Top 5, and Top 10 markets. These are less-volatile positions to take as opposed to the to-win bets. That said, betting the strongest driver at a good price for a half-unit bet has produced significant returns. Can we nail the race winner again? More importantly, can we find several advantageous plays to profit from?
Chase Elliott
Look no further than last week’s Roval winner and the defending champion of the Dover fall race: Chase Elliott. Elliott has been one of the sharpest drivers at Dover since he joined the Cup Series in 2016. He has done exceptionally well on the circuit’s 1-mile tracks, joining guys like Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex, Jr. with that distinction.
Chase’s Dover win last year required a combination of skillful driving, good strategy, and a little luck. A late wreck cleared the way for him to nail down the victory, though we can’t hold that against him. You could make the argument that last year’s performance was a fluke if he showed less success on the Monster Mile or at the other 1-mile tracks.
He has been nothing less than spectacular here, finishing no worse than 5th in all but one of his seven races at Dover. Elliott opened at +650 to win the race. The opener is almost worth the risk, but he is certainly a buy at +800 or better for a half-unit wager.
We could see a better number this weekend if he qualifies behind some of the big guns. Remember, he won the 2018 race from the 9th starting position with a little help late. One Top 3 market has Elliott posted at +150, which is slightly lower than where we want to be before he hits the track for Friday’s practices. We will find a way to work Chase Elliott into Sunday’s betting card once multiple options are posted by various books.
Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex may have let a Roval win slip away last week, but we severely doubt that will extinguish his fire. There was no hotter driver than MTJ going into Sunday’s race on the heels of back-to-back wins. He won the Dover fall race in 2015 and took the checkered flag here this spring. On top of that, Martin is a great 1-mile track performer.
Since 2014, MTJ has finished outside of the Top 10 at Dover only twice. Five of his last six races here have been Top-5 performances, including two wins. His Dover clout is reflected in the +500 opener, and we’ve even seen +400 elsewhere. We’ll keep an eye on MTJ in practice but he may be a pass if his prices don’t offer a better price.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick is another guy in the midst of a solid run that began a couple weeks before the NASCAR playoffs started at Darlington. His 7th place finish at Richmond was the only non-Top 5 during this run, but a win at Indy positioned him well with playoff points. The #4 team is legitimately in the hunt for a shot at the Championship.
Dover is a track that has been a thorn in Harvick’s side here and there during his long career. Both races in the 2014, 2016, and 2017 seasons were letdowns. However, he bookended the 2016-17 runs with wins on the Monster Mile. Kevin is another one of the elite drivers on the 1-mile tracks with the experience and the team to get him in the Top 10. The bad thing is that his +500 opener doesn’t account for the coin-flip chance that he’s not an actual threat to win on Sunday. We’ll keep our eye on his matchup bets, especially if he goes as a pick ’em against a guy like Brad Keselowski.
Daniel Suarez
Daniel was one of several drivers who found himself on the outside of the initial playoff picture. The 34th place finish at the Roval was disappointing for the #41 Ford team, but we’re gauging Suarez as a sneaky Top 10 contender at Dover. Although his last couple runnings at the Monster Mile weren’t stellar performances (10th and 11th place), his overall body of work here is very good. If you’re looking purely at average finish position, Dover is Daniel Suarez’ best track. He is buried on the odds board at +6600 as of Wednesday morning, which means there is a chance that his Top 10 price will be worth playing this weekend.
