With Richmond in the books, just one race remains before four teams find themselves on the outside looking in. The tracks have gotten progressively smaller as the Round of 16 plays out, which wraps up at The Last Great Coliseum Saturday night. Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the shortest tracks on the Cup Series circuit, but the action is enormous. After 500 laps, only twelve Championship contenders will make the cut at the Bristol Night Race.
Penske Takes Richmond
Brad Keselowski joined Kevin Harvick in the Round of 12 with a big win last weekend at Richmond. He called his shot several days before the race and convincingly sealed the deal under the lights. The #2 Mustang dominated the second half of the race, leading 192 of the 400 laps. Keselowski won Stage 2 and led about four times as many laps as Austin Dillon with 55.
I mentioned above that Austin Dillon led the second most amount of laps last weekend. AD followed up his Darlington playoff runner-up performance with a solid 4th at Richmond. Can Dillon pull off a third huge run at a venue where he put in one of his best efforts at this spring? I doubt that the #3 team is in danger of being cut after the Bristol Night Race, but another Top 10 would firmly propel him into the Round of 12.
Kyle Busch’s 6th place finish at Richmond should not go unnoticed. Busch has a ton of work yet to avoid being cut, though back-to-back playoff Top 10s surely helps the cause. Like last week, I’ll say that Kyle may not be in Championship form but he is still very dangerous. Fortunately for him, Thunder Valley is where the #18 Camry has found victory lane in three of the last six Cup Races. The defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion needs to regain those winning ways Saturday night if he wants to defend his crown.
A Win/Lose Proposition
When it comes to our Richmond betting card, the 1-1 split broke up a budding winning streak that started at Darlington. Since both plays were plus-money, we still put a few bucks in the accounts. That’s pint of beer money, not steak dinner money. I jumped on Joey Logano getting +125 against Brad Keselowski in a “coin flip” proposition. Joey was strong early but Brad took over and held on to take home the hardware. Logano’s 3rd place finish was simply not good enough.
Kurt Busch’s matchup win as a +105 dog created the overall positive return. Kurt finished 13th in unspectacular fashion, but this play was less about him and more about the opponent. Ryan Blaney had yet to figure Richmond out and is still looking for answers after Saturday night. He came in 19th and was never much of a factor, having finished off of the lead lap. Busch simply needed to run his race to win the matchup, and that he did. Unfortunately, Kurt’s one-stop strategy in Stage 3 was a swing-and-miss for his postseason prospects. His back is up against the wall this weekend.
The Bristol Night Race
“And [Bristol] is challenging. You’re constantly around cars and never get a break down the straightaway. It’s just so tough.”
Joey Logano – April 4, 2019
The Bristol Night Race is must-see TV, and this year it anchors the Round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Martin Truex, Jr. says “It’s the unknowns you worry about” at Bristol. Just ask Ryan Blaney how he feels about this after his spin out and subsequent collision this spring. It looked like something he could easily recover from until Ty Dillon inadvertently blew off Blaney’s front end under yellow. That’s Bristol, baby!
Bristol is all about close-quarters racing in rush hour traffic. Top drivers like MTJ and Brad Keselowski have experienced long spells with little to no success here. Hell, even Kevin Harvick went through eight straight races in the early 2010s without a Top 10 finish. But there are a handful of drivers who have consistently survived Thunder Valley. Jimmie Johnson is a prime example with his nine Top 10s in the last twelve races. Bristol has seen quite a few unexpected drivers succeed here over the years.
The Playoff Picture
Brad Keselowski’s Richmond win secured his spot in the Round of 12 alongside Kevin Harvick. In reality, Denny Hamlin through Alex Bowman sit in good shape unless they cannot finish the race. This leaves the bottom eight in limbo, where the current difference between Kyle Busch in 9th position and William Byron as the first driver out is just 18 points. AA, Kurt, and Clint are in danger of being leapfrogged with a poor showing or if bottom dwellers Matty D or Ryan Blaney come away with a Night Race win.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Six drivers earned opening prices shorter than 10/1 odds to win the Bristol Night Race. It’s not quite a crapshoot like the high-flying superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega, though the term “favorite” is shared by a handful of legitimate teams this week. JGR’s Denny Hamlin won this race last year, while Kyle Busch won three of the last six at Bristol. Kevin Harvick hasn’t cracked the Top 10 here since 2018, but I’ll be damned if the 2016 Night Race winner is to be found anywhere else on this list.
Joey Logano +130 vs. Chase Elliott
This is almost the same bet as I played last week at Richmond. Of course, Brad Keselowski crushed my +125 dreams by winning the damn thing. However, Joey’s 3rd place finish is nothing to sneeze at with 45 laps led. The #22 Penske Ford was in the Top 5 all night, but Brad was simply the best in the field. I told myself that I would make the same bet again if presented a second chance. Well, here we go again.
Chase Elliott comes into the Bristol Night Race on a high note after an “A-” showing at Richmond. He was good enough to finish 5th on Martinsville’s short track in June and then won the All-Star Race at Bristol a month later. Chase started 13th in the short exhibition race but pushed his way to the checkered flag and a cool $1,000,000. He should be brimming with confidence on a friendly track. The #9 Camaro starts 6th this weekend, putting Elliott one step ahead of the last contest in Thunder Valley.
Battling in the Coliseum
The Chase Elliott-Joey Logano tangle in May’s race was a tough break for both guys. With just three laps to go at Bristol, the gloves come off and just about anything is fair game. Logano appeared to have the upper hand at that exact moment, but Elliott had the stronger car for most of the race. I expect him to be strong once again Saturday night. Chase is batting .448 with Top 10 finishes on short tracks in his Cup Series career, and .444 at Bristol. I also have to contend with my mother-in-law calling for Chase, Brad, or Kyle to win this weekend. +130 against Elliott seems a little less appetizing with her backing Bill’s son.
Logano is no slouch at Bristol either. Joey won the 2014 & 2015 Bristol Night Races and recently snapped a streak where he finished in the Top 10 in eight of ten here. He’s batting .493 with Top 10s on short tracks and .434 at Bristol. Starting with his 2014 win, however, Logano delivered eight Top 10s in the last twelve despite a couple recent letdowns. Barring a third-straight disappointing Thunder Valley result, you should count on him extending his Top 5 form.
I like the high level at which Logano is racing week after week. Aside from Daytona, this #22 Team Penske squad rattled off eight straight Top 10s into the postseason. Most importantly, Joey finished 3rd in both playoff races as the track sizes have progressed shorter and shorter. Both teams are in prime playoff form and have a solid Bristol pedigree. So why is – or was – this line so lopsided? Maybe we will find out after the checkered flag flies Saturday night. I give Chase a tiny nod in this head-to-head matchup, but the price is right to back Joey at +110 or better.
Clint Bowyer -122 Top 10
I’m going to get my money’s worth of entertainment this weekend with Clint Freaking Bowyer. After all, he delivered us a Top 10 win at a shorter -106 this spring with a runner-up performance. Clint is a grinder who can bang in traffic and push his way through 500 laps with the best of them. Here was my take before the May race:
He’s the kind of driver that can keep a scraped up stock car on the lead lap with the best of them. Evidence: only twice has Clint failed to finish in 28 races in Thunder Valley. Despite never having won a Cup Series race at Bristol, he’s finished in the Top 10 in over half of those contests. Bowyer’s current tenure in the Stewart-Haas #14 Mustang has been even better with five Top 10s in six races.
NASCAR’s Battle at Bristol – BetCrushers.com – May 30, 2020
Now it’s six out of seven Top 10s here for Bowyer in the #14 Mustang. Clint starts 11th Saturday night, but that does not concern me. After all, he started no better than 14th in four of his last five Bristol races – all Top 10s. The body of work at the Coliseum is there, plus he has been respectable so far in the playoffs. Bowyer must race with purpose as he sits in the final position above the cut line. Clint is a savvy veteran who knows how to survive 500 laps under the lights, so I am willing to lay -122 on a Top 10 finish.
Playoff Madness
I’ll keep you covered as the NASCAR Playoffs head to Vegas for the Round of 12. The tension grows with each week and the next round does not get any easier. Yanni crushed NFL props in Week 1 and has the Week 2 action cornered. Don’t miss any of our football betting advice or NASCAR features through the end of the season! Connect with us on Twitter or subscribe below for inbox alerts:
