Yesterday presented a couple live dogs to jump on, both of which came through. There had been a drought of underdogs that looked reasonable in my handicapping opinion until yesterday, but the integration of early-season metrics help to isolate these opportunities versus relying purely on projections. Today’s slate should present us with even more value on MLB dogs.
The Giants squeezed out a 1-0 win against a struggling Colorado offense, while the Cardinals rallied from a couple early deficits to exploit a volatile Dodger bullpen. These dogs returned +238, offsetting a Braves run line loss. Decent day to get back on track, yielding +1.38 units. I’ve got a pocket full of tickets early this morning, so let’s jump right in…
LA Angels @ Chicago Cubs
I rarely, if ever, get money in on a Cubs home game early. Winds and cold weather play a significant role early in the season and it is important to factor this into handicapping before committing a wager. And then you’ve got the Mike Trout injury. Chicago gets behind veteran Cole Hamels and his solid left arm, trying to muster a winning streak in the friendly confines. Their offense has struggled, only producing 2 runs in 3 of their last 4 games.
Tyler Skaggs looks to extend LA’s 6-game win streak, likely without the services of Mike Trout. Skaggs can keep the Cubs hitters at bay if his changeup is on, potentially going a full 6 innings and leaving it to a very good Angels bullpen. Trout’s availability is clearly monumental and early indications is that he may not play. When the lineup comes out and he is absent, there should be extra line value on the dog. Since I prepared this article early, my play below is a partial bet and I will load up the other portion when Trout’s status is announced.
WAGER: Angels +140
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Carlos Carrasco brings the Indians to Kansas City with the intent of getting back on a winning streak after a brief interruption on Wednesday. Carrasco has a nasty slider/changeup with big strikeout potential. His fastball velocity is down a little, but the secondary pitches can be killer. The Tribe has a clear bullpen edge, so if he can go deep this could be lights out for the Royals.
Kansas City puts its hopes of snapping a massive losing streak on the right arm of Brad Keller. He’s an under-the-radar sinker ball pitcher with a good slider. If he is on, Keller could frustrate the Indians’ hitters. This has the potential to be a really good pitchers’ duel. KC is live in such a duel because they are a bit more efficient in scoring runs, even though both clubs have a tough time getting runners on base. The Royals have better potential to get a quick score somewhere in this duel. Major caution is with this bullpen; they can blow any tight lead or let the Tribe extend a small one late. Yesterday’s blown lead against a good Seattle club is case in point. Worth a shot on the home dog, in my opinion.
WAGER: Royals +135
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
The Astros head to the PNW with Wade Miley on the mound for a big AL West showdown. Miley has pitched very well this year, giving up only 3 runs in 11.2 innings. He has a great bullpen to follow him up. Houston wants to extend their 6-game winning streak but must do so in the face of Seattle’s 6-game streak of their own. The interesting difference is that Houston did theirs at home, while the Mariners did so as road warriors.
Seattle’s LeBlanc was roughed up in his opener against Boston but rebounded fairly well at the White Sox. He has a little shakier bullpen behind him, so a solid outing is very important for the dog tonight. Despite their 13-2 mark, Seattle has been an underdog 7 times, winning 6 of those outright. Houston has been a favorite in all 13 of their games. Somebody’s streak will be broken tonight. Houston has the pedigree and expectations, while Seattle has been playing with house money. They’re scrapping for wins and the home crowd will be welcoming their club back tonight.
WAGER: Mariners +136
Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Dodgers
Quick hit: Corbin Burnes has pitched terribly this year, giving up 11 runs in 10 innings. I like Milwaukee’s lineup and their bullpen is superior. But LA is back home after losing 4 straight to the Cardinals. The Dodgers are 5-2 at home and put a mercurial Urias on the mound. Both teams have been limited offensively in 3 of their last 4 games, though LA has a great chance to get the bats hot against Burnes and hold on tight with a volatile bullpen.
WAGER: Dodgers RL +140
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Quick hit: Chad Bettis is a strong play against for me. It’s that simple. Even with a rough Giants offense facing him, I think Pomeranz can continue to limit Colorado’s offense. Other than the tight win last night, the Giants’ prior 3 wins covered the run line. San Francisco holds the bullpen edge, so any early runs could mean the difference in the game. Could be a 3-1 type of affair, and I’m going for the good payout.
