OVERVIEW:
Week three of the XFL season tees off this Saturday and while some of the initial opening day hype has quieted down, the league still shows some strong momentum and a solid following. It’s pure speculation on our end that sports betting is a big reason why the XFL has been able to maintain their early presence as the public simply loves wagering on football. If you happened to catch our early breakdown of the league as a whole you probably recall that the BetCrushers aren’t fully ready to jump into handicapping these games as there is just so much to still learn. With that being said, where is the fun in that approach? We decided to take a brief look at these matchups to share our leans and even make an official play that we’re putting out there if you’re brave enough to tail us.
The Odds:
One thing seems pretty evidently clear after the first two weeks of the XFL season and that is there is not a ton of parity in this league. There seems to be a hierarchy of a few pretty strong teams and some really week teams with not a lot in the middle as these spreads above reflect. The totals are pretty interesting as well as despite some mainly low-scoring affairs with unders prevailing previously, they haven’t adjusted the over/unders all that much. Maybe this is the weekend the offenses figure some things out and really get it going?
After taking a look at the teams and matchups the next thing we always like to do is look at the key numbers to see if there is a potential advantage to be had. Part of the challenge with the XFL is that it’s a little trickier as the combination of key numbers like 3 and 7 and the options for different totals on a point after try effectively tone-down the traditional numbers that college and NFL bettors are used to playing. Initially that would seem to make things actually a little easier, however the end of game scoring rules leave backdoor scoring doors completely wide open. With these different variables, is it even possible to effectively and knowledgeably bet on these contests? We’d be lying if we said we could answer that question completely at this still early juncture, but our initial thought is that yes you absolutely can, it just takes a slightly different approach than what you or we may have traditionally done.
The Games:
Houston Roughnecks at Tampa Bay Vipers
If you followed the pre-season odds you would have noted that the Tampa Bay Vipers were slotted to be the second to third best team in the league. That has not panned out at all as they may actually be the worst team, at least offensively as they’ve struggled to move the ball and score touchdowns. The Houston Roughnecks on the other hand are riding the early star of the league in quarterback P.J. Walker to a nice start and are clearly one of the top three contenders in the league and possibly number one. While Houston has not had trouble putting points up, this total seems a little high so we’d lean under on this one and with the overall discrepancy, if we had to bet it we’d lay the points with the vastly superior team in Houston.
Dallas Renegades at Seattle Dragons
The Dallas Renegades have been a bit up and down so it’s pretty difficult to really handicap them as a team this early in the season. The Seattle Dragons remind us of that team that isn’t necessarily all that talented, but just works really hard and fights their way into staying competitive. The key thing we’re paying attention to in this game is with all due respect to Houston, the Dragons seem to have the best homefield advantage in the league as their stadium was rocking and very much has a cult-like MLS feel to it. Dallas is a better team it seems like, but this game could be close and Seattle could find a way to get a win if they can make some plays and catch some breaks. We’re not betting this one, but we’re taking the Dragons and the points if we were.
New York Guardians at St. Louis Battlehawks
The New York Guardians are heavy underdogs against a St. Louis Battlehawks team that has looked like the second or third best in that upper echelon grouping. This is a pretty big mismatch on paper and film, so there is definitely a chance that St. Louis could run New York right off of the field. It seems like if you wanted to wager on this game the right side would be to take the 10 points or the under and hope for a low scoring contest. If you have the stones to do a three-team 10 point sweetheart teaser and get the Battlehawks as a pick that certainly seems like a sure thing, but we’re not going to promote any kind of wager like that.
DC Defenders at Los Angeles Wildcats
The weekend will wrap up in LA as the Wildcats will host another of the big three teams in the DC Defenders. The Wildcats look like they may be the doormat of the league both on the field, and probably in the stands too. Look for a lot of empty seats despite the population in Los Angeles and look for DC to have their way with the Wildcats. Laying 8.5 on the road seems like it’s probably a losing concept, however don’t let that scare you here. It wouldn’t be surprising if DC gets up early and just cruises to a win of the 27-7 type. The Under would seem to be in play here as well, but tread cautiously as DC could put up a lot of points here and if they’re up big might give up some late garbage scores.
As you can see we didn’t give the most riveting breakdown and analysis on these game as they’re really just more of overviews at this point. Ultimately, there is still way too much to learn about trying to handicap these teams and the league in general. What we do know is that that with homefield advantage not necessarily being as big of a factor as it is in the NFL or college game, that the best teams should continue to roll over the bottom-feeders. We mentioned how the traditional numbers aren’t necessarily as key in the XFL, yet our favorite wager that we’re playing is actually a two-team teaser which takes us through key numbers. We’re looking to take arguably the two best teams in the league against two of the worst and getting them both down below a field goal victory. In full disclosure, this is more of a test bet for us than something we want to shout from the mountaintops so please keep that in mind, but at the end of the day we feel really good that this bet can cash. If you’re catching any of these games, enjoy and depending on our results and the games themselves, we’ll determine if we’re back for more in week number four. Best of luck!
BetCrushers Take:
Tease Houston Roughnecks to -.5 and DC Defenders to -2.5
