In the midst of college basketball, the NBA All-Star game, The Daytona 500, NHL and spring training was week number two of the newly created XFL season. Like most people, we have been a little skeptical about the sustainability of this league and more so the possibility of being able to handicap and turn a profit betting on these upstarts. In week’s one and two we had a bit of beer money on the games and totals and were able to come out ahead, but in reality we were simply observing and evaluating what potential the XFL truly has for both sports bettors and casual sports fans. Before we tackle those questions, let’s take a quick overview peak at what the vision of this league and it’s mastermind Vince McMahon really is:
Perhaps the most important piece of the new XFL and their vision behind Vince McMahon and commissioner Oliver Luck is their desire to not be a competitor of the NFL, but instead another part of the football community. With that thought in mind, they got to work and actually followed a similar model to Major League Soccer. That model worked well as it’s geared on building local community support and sponsorships, and strong marketing. Freelance write Mike Mitchell who writes for the website XFL Board summed up their goal really well. Getting the average football fan to buy into a non-NFL league by just presenting football won’t be enough to maintain and sustain an audience. You certainly won’t win people over by trying to be the NFL, or a lesser version of it. Like the USFL, the XFL needs to “tell its own story.”
Early Results and Takeaways
With two weeks in the books so far, what do we actually know about this league? Well, as was part of their mission, the innovation and fan-friendliness have both been prominently on display. Live interviews on the sidelines after both good and poor plays provide a human element and look into the players on display. The same can be said for the halftime look-ins of the locker room, the live play calls of the offensive and defensive coordinators. FOX has done a very nice job of accumulating a quality team of announcers and reporters which give the games some instant credibility. It was mildly strange hearing conversations about live-betting and point spreads, but fans seem to really enjoy it.
The attendance and TV ratings through the first two weekends have both been considered to be pretty strong overall. Fan reviews via Twitter and social media have also been overwhelmingly supportive of the new league. The efforts and stories of the players have offered some nice additional storylines, as you can almost see the will and effort of desperation on each play. Fans seem to enjoy the varied rules such as the kick-off formations and the different options for point after touchdowns, despite the fact teams are struggling to convert them. As is the case with NFL preseason and early in their season, defenses seem to have the advantage as the offenses are still trying to figure things out. This has led to a lack of scoring, something the league can’t be thrilled about, although sharp under bettors certainly were.
As far as the teams go, there appears to be a couple of standouts early on, with the others looking to find their own identities and wins. The DC Defenders and Houston Roughnecks who were both thought to be in the upper echelon before the season have established themselves as the cream of the crop thus far. These teams feature what have been the top two quarterbacks thus far after two games with Cardale Jones leading DC (and their strong defense) and P.J. Walker leading the Roughnecks as a potential MVP candidate tossing 7 touchdowns already.
Because these teams have not had a lot of time working together, it’s possible some of the others could vault up in the rankings, but in a short ten game season with only eight teams, it sure looks as though DC and Houston will be the teams to beat. Heading into week three of the season it will be interesting to see how much oddsmakers will be adjusting lines and totals. Even though they’ll potentially be laying some big numbers, if you’re planning to bet, we’d recommend rolling with the two most impressive teams. Unlike in the NFL where there generally isn’t a huge gap between the top teams and bottom teams, there appears to be quite a difference with the XFL.
Standings After Week Two:
The BetCrushers Thoughts:
Maybe it’s the underdog’s in us, or perhaps it stems from some bitterness of the direction of Roger Goodell’s NFL, but we really hope that the XFL can stick around. It’s great to see guys get a second chance to play the sport the love in attempts to have a career whether in this league or leading to another. The play of the league has been a little sloppy as you might expect, but overall the product has really been of pretty high quality. From the production and announcers, to the extra features on the field and behind the scenes, the plan was really thought out by McMahon and his staff.
In the BetCrushers world, our biggest concern is whether or not we feel we can find a way to make money betting on the sport? There are clearly no shortage of betting options as we’ve seen everything from your standard spreads and totals to player props and daily fantasy games. As is the case with most events you’re considering wagering on, the research to find the value is one of the most critical pieces to profitability. It’s likely that later in the season we will be able to better gauge coaching and strategies as well as the consistent players and teams. For the time being, we’re going to enjoy the early part of the season and and keep our bets on our tried and tested college hoops models and the upcoming MLB season.
