If nothing is there, don’t force it. It’s a principle that you have to stick to as a handicapper, and that’s the situation I faced last night when looking at Tuesday’s college basketball slate. Monday’s handicap for Lafayette/Bucknell came to fruition despite the Leopards facing a team that had beaten them in nine straight games. Jaworski and Lafayette finally broke the streak and held off a second-half surge from the Bison, delivering us a solid cover. I’m dipping back into the well with a recently-featured team in the Road Dog Report for 2/5/2020.
(837) Bradley @ Drake -2
The Bradley Braves let us down Saturday evening, losing a much-needed road game to Loyola. Bradley dropped to 6-4 in the Missouri Valley Conference and 15-8 overall. Tonight they take on the 15-8 Drake Bulldogs, who look to snap a two-game losing streak and rise above the .500 mark in league play.
Beaten Down Low
One of my concerns in the Loyola contest was how dominant the Ramblers’ big man, Cameron Krutwig had been. Krutwig fell three rebounds short of his third double-double in four games, yet Loyola still out-rebounded Bradley 29-20. I would characterize the Braves’ performance as very uninspired, especially given their 17 turnovers and 23 fouls. The rebounding discrepancy was the complete opposite of the teams’ performance over their previous nine MVC games. There was a lot of optimism for this Braves squad before Saturday’s game. Even the local press wondered if they were peaking into the heart of league play.
Drake’s 7-footer, Liam Robbins could put the Bradley front court in trouble again tonight. Robbins posted just two single-digit scoring games since the late-November Gulf Coast Showcase. Interestingly enough, those were Drake’s last two home games vs. Missouri State and Southern Illinois. Both of those teams have a stocky inside presence with Gaige Prim and Barret Benson, respectively. Bradley’s Ja’Shon Henry has done his best to fill Elijah Childs’ shoes, but he and Koch Bar will need to be sharp tonight to keep Robbins from putting up a double-double. The Braves have asked for more from 7’1″, 240-pound sophomore Ari Boya in their last few games and tonight would be a great time for him to repeat last week’s double-double performance at Indiana State.
Backcourt Options
Other than Robbins, Drake lacks a major inside presence. They offset this with strong guard play led by 5’11”, 180-pound Roman Penn. Penn has not been efficient in the last couple games but the Siena transfer has flirted with a triple-double a few times this season. He distributes the ball well and is not afraid to get in the middle of the action to pull down boards. D.J. Wilkins and Anthony Murphy are big reasons why the Bulldogs are shooting 46.3% in their ten conference games. They too have been less than sharp in recent losses to Indiana State and Southern Illinois. Guard Garrett Sturtz has answered the call, though, and is in peak form. He is getting significant minutes and responded by scoring nearly 12 PPG in their last four games with 19-24 shooting.
Both of these squads are league leaders when it comes to keeping their opponents’ shooting percentages in check. Drake, however, is one of the MVC’s most efficient shooting teams inside the arc. This strength-on-strength matchup will come to a head tonight. Despite Saturday’s loss, Bradley has held their opponents to less than 41% shooting in the last four games. The Braves must be better from beyond the arc than they were against Loyola (8-22 3pt). Surprisingly, rising player Ville Tahvanainen was a non-factor (2-4 3pt) on Saturday despite playing 30 minutes. Bradley’s 40.4% perimeter shooting is second-best in the MVC and they typically use the deep shot sparingly. Tahvanainen needs to be a bigger part of the offense tonight to be efficient and keep some pressure on the Bulldogs.
I expect a good defensive battle with scores in the upper 60s, so shot selection and efficiency should push one of these teams ahead of the other. My ratings make Bradley around 4 points better on a neutral court. These teams met in Peoria on December 31st, as Bradley got the 80-72 win in a highly-contested game without Elijah Childs. A significant discrepancy in free throws was a big reason for Bradley’s win in their previous meeting.
On the Money
Saturday’s handicap profiled Bradley’s market performance in the MVC, which has now dropped to 7-3 ATS and 3-2 ATS on the road. They catch only a couple of points tonight, so their 2-3 straight up record away from home may be more of a factor along with Drake’s 4-1 home record in conference play. The Bulldogs are 11-10 ATS this season and 3-2 ATS at home in their MVC games. Drake split their last eight games to a 4-4 ATS mark, including non-covers in their two home games; laying -5.5 to Missouri State and -6 to Southern Illinois. I rate these previous opponents around 4 and 5 points worse than Bradley, which essentially corresponds to the -2 for this matchup.
Bradley failed to cover their last two on the road, so somebody’s recent ATS troubles in this scenario will come to an end tonight (barring a push). This could very well be my last shot at backing the Braves if their woes continue. In the meantime, I took the +2 with Bradley and expect their defense and perimeter shooting to get them a win at the Knapp Center.
Looking Ahead
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