Wednesday’s handicap of the Cal Baptist Lancers recognized the potential weakness against Utah Valley’s 6’7″ front court duo. And the Lancers came into the game after one their worst shooting performances this season. Nonetheless, I trusted the handicap and stuck with a team who has treated us very well this season. Fortunately, CBU shook off UVU’s rally to hold on for the win after leading by 14 at half. Building on last night’s win, we revisit a familiar face on the Road Dog Report for 1/30/2020.
(623) Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas-Little Rock -7
Coastal Carolina makes their third appearance on the Road Dog Report. We last saw them cover as a 5.5-point dog to UT Arlington on January 11th after failing two days earlier as a 4-point dog to Texas State. The 11-10 Chanticleers head west to face the 15-7 Little Rock Trojans for some Sun Belt action. Let’s get the skeleton out of the closet by recognizing that the Trojans laid the lumber to Coastal two weeks ago with a 71-55 beatdown in Myrtle Beach. Little Rock had five guys with double-digit scoring and dominated a Coastal Carolina squad that had its worst shooting performance of the season (31.5% FG, 5-25 from downtown).
Familiar Territory
The Chanticleers have struggled against teams with a strong front court. We saw it in the Texas State game with forward Nijal Pearson feasting on the Chanticleers’ smaller lineup. Their shooting has also been lackluster lately. The Chants haven’t shot better than 43% from the field since January 6th; a game where they hit 11-of-30 from deep and 54.8% overall against Louisiana-Monroe. Coastal is in a 1-4 slump that is mostly attributable to cold shooting. Tyrell Gumbs-Frater was a reliable perimeter shooter off of the bench prior to league play but has really struggled in their last ten games. Starting 6’6″ guard Garrick Green has completely fallen off the map during this five-game slump with 4-17 shooting from beyond the arc and 25% shooting overall.
Little Rock presents a significant challenge for Coastal in their trio of big men. 6’7″ Ben Coupet delivers 10-15 points a night and can step out to hit the perimeter shot. Coupet is a great front court partner for 6’10” Ruot Monyyong, who has twelve double-doubles this season. In fact, he had a seven-game run of double-doubles and gives the Trojans a solid 10-15 points a night as well. 6’8″ Kamani Johnson isn’t typically as dynamic as Coupet and Monyyong, but he has shown production here and there in eleven Sun Belt games. Opposing them is Coastal’s 6’8″ Tommy Burton, who is a rock-solid player with an inside game and great rebounding skills. He will have his hands full against a high-percentage shooting Trojans squad that rebounds and moves the ball well.
Can They Turn Around Their Shooting?
My December 10th handicap of Arkansas-Little Rock recognized the strength of their inside game, but it also zeroed in on 5’8″ guard Markquis Nowell. At that point in the season, he was averaging 19.3 points and 4.6 assists per game. Nowell is down to 17.7 PPG and 4.4 PPG mainly because he’s been playing the role of “bus driver” more than leading man. Don’t get me wrong, he is still a guy that the Chants must respect because he works in the occasional 20+ point night. Their backcourt also features 6’1″ Jaizee Lottie, who is an on-and-off type of guy who was certainly “on” against Coastal last time out with 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists.
Coastal Carolina made their mark earlier in the season with great outside shooting. This has cooled off over their last five games and now they find themselves at 4-6 in the Sun Belt. Little Rock’s 9-2 league record is testament to their good form, especially at home where they are 4-1 in conference. Guards Keishawn Brewton and Devante Jones must regain their early-season form and put up 30 or more points together. The Chanticleers lead the conference in rebounding and opponents are only making only 44.9% of their two-point shots against them. Unfortunately, Coastal is near the bottom of Sun Belt teams when it comes to turnovers, fouls, and free throw shooting percentage. Their reliance on the perimeter shot has hurt them lately, but this may not necessarily be a long-term trend.
On the Money
Little Rock is 15-6 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS at home in conference games. They’re on a four-game win and cover streak, though three of those games came on the road. Coastal’s 8-11 ATS overall and 2-2 ATS in league road games pale in comparison to the Trojans’ market performance. The Chanticleers get out of town tonight after a three-game losing and non-cover streak on their home floor. So why the hell would I want to back a team with a bad inside matchup and poor shooting? ALR was a 6.5-point dog when these teams played two weeks ago at Coastal. Tonight, they lay 7 points on their court; a 13-point or greater swing. Sure, the Trojans hammered them in their house and are on a hot streak right now.
Teams that rely on jumpers and perimeter shooting can go cold for spells. I think Coastal’s price in their previous matchup corresponded to a team that was performing well at home and had some momentum. Little Rock seized the momentum that night as they started their current four-game run. The Chanticleers’ last three road games (2-1 ATS and SU) saw them priced at +4 at South Alabama, +3 at Texas State, and +4.5 at UT Arlington; the latter two teams being at least on-par with Little Rock. My opinion is that the oddsmakers have priced tonight’s matchup in accordance to these teams’ overall skill levels with a slight shading towards ALR for their current form. Their cold shooting could follow them on the road, but I am backing Coastal Carolina with the +7 in what may be a “buy low” point in their season.
