Hiding in the shadows of an insane NFL Divisional Round weekend, Saturday’s featured college hoops handicaps went 2-1. Seems unspectacular, right? After the previous Saturday’s 0-3, I wondered if that particular day of the week was my boogeyman. Coastal Carolina made up for their meltdown in their previous game and joined Cal Baptist as straight-up winners. Nevada’s late game bid to cover the spread fell just short, but we’re ready to roll after a couple days off with the Road Dog Report for 1/14/2020.
(615) Ohio @ Buffalo
It’s Tuesday, and it’s time for some MACtion. My alma mater, the 9-7 Ohio Bobcats pull into Buffalo for a MAC East showdown with the 10-6 Bulls. Former Stony Brook coach Jeff Boals took the reins in Athens after a disappointing 14-17 season under Saul Phillips. Both squads have started off slowly in league play at 1-2.
Jim Whitesell earned another head coaching gig after Nate Oats left for Alabama in the offseason. The Bulls return home after a pair of MAC road games that they split. The last handicap I did on Buffalo was the 12/30 matchup with St. Bonaventure. They sunk my +4 ticket with a big second half comeback, ultimately winning their final non-conference game 84-79.
The Jayvon Graves Show
It was the Jayvon Graves show that night against the Bonnies. He scored 28 points and grabbed four steals. The 6’3″ junior is Buffalo’s overwhelming threat who shoots 38.1% from downtown and 44.5% overall. He put up double-digit points in all but one of sixteen games this season. The scary thing is that he’s been heating up lately. Graves averages 17.2 PPG, which is even higher at 20.8 PPG in the Bulls’ last five games.
Perimeter threat Davonta Jordan joins Graves in the backcourt as a dangerous shooter. However, the Bobcats cannot ignore Buffalo’s front court in their gameplan. 6’7″ Texas Tech transfer Josh Mballa is a monster on the glass, though it’s not uncommon to find him on the bench in foul trouble. 6’5″ Jeenathan Williams is a steady complement to Graves and Jordan as a very good high-percentage shooter, averaging just under 11 PPG.
Countering with Size
Buffalo’s 19-2 run at home took a step back in the MAC opener, getting edged out by Northern Illinois as an 8-point favorite. They were then thumped at Ball State as a small dog before rebounding with a solid win against Miami in Oxford. Both of these recent league losses featured big men who had dominant games against the Bulls. 6’9″, 240-pound Lacey James put had an 18 point/13 rebound game for Northern Illinois, while 6’8″, 215-pound Tahaji Teague put up 25 points on 11-16 shooting for Ball State.
The Bobcats have a versatile big man of their own in 6’8″, 230-pound sophomore Ben Vander Plas. Vander Plas is a huge asset to this Ohio team, averaging 14.4 PPG & 7.1 RPG this season. He had rough days against Baylor, Utah, and Purdue; otherwise, the big forward has been a force around the bucket with 66% shooting on two-point shots. In addition to leading the scoring charge, he needs to out-rebound Mballa and challenge Buffalo’s forwards to put them in foul trouble. Buffalo has thrived on second-chance points from offensive rebounds, so Vander Plas must curb this advantage for the Bobcats to keep this game close.
Guards Jason Preston and Jordan Dartis must play their best basketball tonight to counteract Davonta Jordan. Preston manages the Bobcat offense well with good ball movement. He’s also a savvy scorer who can get to the line and convert on those opportunities (75.7 FT%). Senior Jordan Dartis has been Ohio’s key deep threat, shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc. He’s a shooter who is anything but afraid to shoot the rock. Dartis has taken 119 three-point shots this season, knocking down 22 of 50 in his last five games.
On the Money
Ohio has disappointed the betting markets this season, posting a 5-9 ATS record with 3-4 ATS away from the Convocation Center. They’re currently mired in a 1-5 ATS run that doesn’t inspire much confidence in that regard. The Bobcats have been a dog only six times this year, including their first five games of the season with a point spread when they went 2-3 ATS and straight up on the road.
OU finds themselves in the dog role for only the second time since Thanksgiving. Their foe, Buffalo, is 6-8-1 ATS overall and 3-3-1 ATS at home. It’s been a choppy season for them in the betting markets, though they have covered two out of their last three at home. All of these recent spots put them as favorites, including the MAC opener against Ball State.
Buffalo was a double-digit favorite over Ohio in both of their 2019 meetings. Ohio covered at home after being blown out by the Bulls 114-67 in Buffalo. While my rating on OU hasn’t changed much from last year’s team, I have ratcheted Buffalo down by about 15 points. A rough translation from last year makes -4.5 a fair number tonight, although this is a tough comparison given how drastically different the Bulls are this season.
There is no overlap in each team’s three MAC opponents this year. Both teams have disappointed in spots in early-conference play, making it difficult to assess a price based on market performance. That said, I must rely on my ratings and in-game matchups for the handicap. I make Ohio about 2 points worse than Buffalo on a neutral court. Despite an expectation for Buffalo’s Jayvon Graves to have a monster game, Ben Vander Plas is a key mismatch pushing my money onto Ohio +7.5 tonight. Go Bobcats!
On Deck…
That’s my solo shot on the Road Dog Report for 1/14/2020! We’re at an interesting point on the sports calendar: the NFL Playoffs are coming to a head, college hoops is heating up, and now we’re about five weeks away from Spring Training. I’m knee deep in preparing MLB season previews, including insights into the 2020 win totals. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to get email alerts when new feature articles drop:
