The NFL Wild Card Weekend action was anything short of wild, including a pair of overtime games, a 1-point game that eliminated the defending champs, and a repeat of the previous matchup between Seattle and Philly. Unfortunately, we got swept on the gridiron and the court. Time to keep grinding with the Road Dog Report for 1/6/2020!
Saturday Recap
The 0-3 result on Saturday’s handicapped games was extremely disappointing. Eastern Illinois was dominated by Belmont’s shooting, while New Hampshire and Florida A&M faded down the stretch after being tied at half. This college hoops season has been one step forward, two steps back for me.
Point blank, I have to admit that my handicaps so far this season have been, well, pretty much dog shit. The abundance of lopsided losses tells me one of two things: 1) negative variance is hitting hard, or 2) my ratings on a number of teams need significant adjustment. It could be a combination of the two, but I can only affect one of them. So I spent a lot of time Sunday during the NFL games digging deep into my ratings rather than preparing a daily handicap.
In this introspective work, I found a weird trend this season. I noticed that my handicaps on the five Saturdays this season graded out at 7-16. Not that the other days’ 12-13 record is something to be proud of, but it made me wonder whether my handicapping focus is stretched too thin on such a big card. I separated out the Saturdays on this season’s picks archive then looked at last year’s results. My result on Saturdays in the 2018-19 season was a respectable 35-31-1 inside an 100-79 overall record. Instead of going back several more years to see if this was a legitimate phenomenon, I decided to get back to business instead. Time to sharpen the focus and keep pounding away. The Saturday “curse” is just voodoo at this point, although I can’t say that I won’t be a little nervous this coming Saturday.
(1927) Florida A&M @ North Carolina A&T -3.5
I’m getting back on the horse with Florida A&M, who suffered a disappointing loss to North Carolina Central on Saturday. 45 points was their second-lowest scoring output of the season, aided by an inability to score from the field in the last 8:37 of the game. The 2-10 Rattlers face a familiar MEAC foe in the 4-11 North Carolina A&T Aggies in Greensboro this evening.
The Aggies are fresh off of a 123-61 domination of non-D1 Mid-Atlantic Christian. However, tonight’s game will likely be won by whichever team gets to 62 points. Like the Rattlers, the Aggies are not offensive juggernauts. Their 45.7% two-point shooting and 28.3% three-point shooting are slightly better than Florida A&M’s, yet still lackluster.
6’8″ senior forward Ronald Jackson is NC A&T’s main offensive weapon. He poses a similar threat as did FAMU’s last opponent, NC Central, and their main man Jibri Blount. Blount got his double-double on Saturday and there’s a good chance Jackson fills that role tonight. Rattlers’ sophomore DJ Jones needs to build on three solid games in a row in which he’s been a strong performer. The 6’9″ big man started the last three games and delivered with double-digit scoring outputs at Seattle and Iowa State.
While Jackson and Jones duel on the inside, I expect Florida A&M’s backcourt to outshine NC A&T’s. The Rattlers’ tandem of Rod Melton, Jr. and MJ Randolp are averaging just over 30 points per game together in their last five. Freshman Fred Cleveland, Jr. has been a bright spot for the Aggies but not in the way those two have progressed this season.
On the Money
FAMU dropped to 8-4 ATS after Saturday’s loss with all of their games coming away from their home court. NC A&T is 6-7-1 ATS with a 2-1 mark at home. They split their last two home games that had a point spread and now find themselves in the rare spot as the favorite. Conference play will do that for teams in leagues like the MEAC, where they’ve predominantly been dogs in their out-of-conference schedules.
Did FAMU fall apart late in Saturday’s games because it was a “let down” spot after their two huge road wins? It’s hard to tell when it comes to fatigue, motivation, etc., but I do expect them to bounce back into form tonight. I spoke earlier in this article about adjusting my ratings yesterday, with the Rattlers being a good example. I knocked them down just over a point to slightly downplay their recent big road wins. Despite my downgrade, I find +3 or better to be worth a play so my money is back on the Rattlers tonight at +3.5.
