Last year’s NL Central crown race was one of the tightest in the league. My eyes, as a holder of a late-season plus-money divisional futures ticket on the Cardinals, were glued to Milwaukee’s September charge. The Brew Crew made things way too interesting for my taste, even without 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich. Chicago led the pack of also-rans comprised of an underperforming Cincinnati club and the aimless Pittsburgh Pirates. After watching a two-horse race down the stretch in 2019, the 2020 NL Central is shaping up to be hotly contested.
2019 Division Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
2019 NL Central Standings:
- St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
- Milwaukee Brewers (89-73)
- Chicago Cubs (84-78)
- Cincinnati Reds (75-87)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93)
St. Louis Cardinals 2020 Win Total: Open 88, Now 87.5
2019 Win Total: Over 88.5 (91-71)
A change would do you good.
Sheryl Crow
The change actually started in July 2018 when Mike Shildt replaced then-skipper Mike Matheney. Last year, Shildt led the Redbirds to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, seemingly justifying the front office’s mid-season move. Nothing really stood out about the 2019 St. Louis Cardinals other than Cy Young contender Jack Flaherty’s 0.97 WHIP/3.46 FIP breakout season. The Shildt-led club excelled by reducing mistakes and getting back to fundamentally sound baseball.
St. Louis made an offseason move by acquiring stud first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. They shipped off pitcher Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly to Arizona, where they have already helped to reconfigure the Diamondbacks. Goldy had a down year, if you judged by the lofty, but justified, expectations put on him. Nonetheless, this team flat out got the job done by grinding down the stretch to hold off a surging Milwaukee club. The Cardinals had one of the best nondescript bullpens in the league, more to the credit of out-of-nowhere Giovanny Gallegos than to their big acquisition Andrew Miller.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 87-75
What do you do to improve a team that appears to have righted the ship? Not much, apparently. The Athletic’s Mark Saxon asks a damn good question: “Are the Cardinals being irrational by expecting their offense to improve internally?” Slugger Marcell Ozuna and utility player Jose Martinez are gone and the front office appears to be committed to Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and company upping their production. Maybe not the worst idea, but certainly a risky one as the Central is arguably becoming more competitive, with a projected four viable teams.
Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, and Harrison Bader may be strong defensively, but you just can’t expect much from them at the plate. I project another step down in offensive production because of this low-power lineup, further weakened by the loss of Ozuna. Tommy Edman has a prime chance to log playing time because they need his bat enough to use him at any position. Outfielder Dylan Carlson may get a call-up to add depth or fill in for injury, but he probably won’t make a big splash in a hotly-contended division.
I’m a buyer when it comes to the St. Louis relief unit repeating as one of the division’s best. I did knock them down a hair because two situations could make the club rely heavily on Gallegos again: a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery for Jordan Hicks and/or disappointing performances from Andrew Miller. The top of the rotation is decent with Jack Flaherty, but Miles Mikolas will be out for at least the first month. St. Louis needs Flaherty for a full year of success because there are too many questions with this rotation otherwise. Has Carlos Martinez finally gotten with the program? Can the Korean import Kwang-hyun Kim spell Waino throughout the season and prolong his career? St. Louis can contend in the NL Central again but I don’t see enough to play either side of the win total.
Milwaukee Brewers 2020 Win Total: Open 85, Now 83.5
2019 Win Total: Over 86.5 (89-73)
The Brew Crew was scorching hot in September, which led them to a Wild Card berth despite falling just short of the Cards in the division. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich shattered his knee early in the month but the team kept chugging along. Milwaukee’s out-of-nowhere playoff run came to a screeching halt in a disastrous 8th inning against the World Series Champions-to-be. (To right fielder Trent Grisham’s credit, that ball had some wicked sidespin on it.)
A nebulous starting rotation led by Zach Davies (10-7, 3.55 ERA, 4.56 FIP) kept Manager Craig Counsell’s hands full. Brandon Woodruff was even more effective than Davies, but injuries limited his innings. Counsell responded by leaning heavily on a stacked bullpen anchored by fire-baller Josh Hader. Skillful management allowed the Milwaukee relief unit to work around the challenged rotation, finishing the season well above average.
Christian Yelich headlined a Brewers lineup that, realistically, could have been better. A great example is Keston Hiura bouncing on and off the roster around Travis Shaw’s IL stints. Milwaukee clearly wanted the 2017-2018 Shaw to return to the field but that never happened. As Dan Szymborski from FanGraphs stated, the Brewers were most effective with Moustakas at third and Hiura at second.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 78-86
The 2020 Milwaukee Brewers will look significantly different from last year. Gone is Yasmani Grandal, one of the league’s premier catchers. In comes Omar Narvaez from Seattle, fresh off of a 22-home run season. He’ll share behind-the-plate duties with a solid defensive player, Manny Pina. As a defensive catcher, Narvaez is lackluster and he may have peaked offensively last year.
Mike Moustakas signed with Cincinnati, leaving third base duties to someone like Eric Sogard or Jedd Gyorko (or a combination thereof). Luis Urias, the 22-year old former Padre, came in to take over at shortstop for a struggling Orlando Arcia. Now Urias appears to have a minor wrist injury setting him back. While he should be a net positive in time, the rising star is still unproven in the bigs. On the other hand, Keston Hiura demonstrated great ability at the plate and in the field last year, and should progress nicely for the Crew in 2020 and beyond. Yelich should continue to mash and LoCain is still a good centerfielder despite his gradual decline at the hands of Father Time.
Craig Counsell’s reliance on the bullpen to cover a lot of innings is likely to continue in 2020. I expect the Hader/Super/Claudio-led bullpen to repeat as one of the best in the MLB, allowing Brandon Woodruff to operate effectively under an innings limit. Woody takes over as ace, since Zach Davies was traded to San Diego for starter Eric Lauer and Luis Urias. Keep your eye on Josh Lindblom’s return to the United States after a couple years in the Korean Baseball Organization. He could slot in as high as their #2 starter ahead of Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson.
[Lindblom’s] fastball is below big league average, operating in the low-90s, but he has developed an above-average splitter, and has good glove-side command of a serviceable slider/cutter. He also has a loopy, low-70s curveball.
FanGraphs’ 2020 Top 50 Free Agents
WAGER: Milwaukee UNDER 83.5 -120 (@5Dimes 2/7/20)
I anticipate improvement from the Milwaukee rotation and continued strong performance from the relief unit. However, the Brewers faithful should be worried about the club taking a significant offensive step backwards. They have one of the worst-rated farm systems, leaving them with in a weak position to bargain at the trade deadline. But here’s the kicker: the Brew Crew’s 89 wins exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a whopping 8 runs; the largest differential of any club last year. Combine the roster’s net-negative trend with the more representative Pythag total, and I am a buyer of Milwaukee ending the season under .500 and falling to fourth in the final 2020 NL Central standings.
Chicago Cubs 2020 Win Total: Open 87, Now 85.5
2019 Win Total: Under 87.5 (84-78)
The Cubbies missed the postseason in 2019 for the first time since Joe Maddon was brought on board. Looking back, it should have been obvious as Maddon was a lame duck in his contract’s final year. His replacement is former backup catcher and Dancing with the Stars semifinalist David Ross – and if the mirrorball isn’t your thing, he’s a two-time World Series Champion as well. Theo Epstein made the move after looking in the rearview mirror and seeing what appeared to be the Cub’s best years. Epstein felt that the club fell into the “winner’s trap”, which warranted a change in direction.
If we were to distill the whole thing down to a single catchphrase and concept, it’d be that the Cubs need to get out of what Epstein called the “winner’s trap.” They achieved success in 2015 and ’16 on the backs of young hitters and veteran pitchers, trading off a wealth of young assets to fuel that dynamic. But what worked in the past won’t always work in the future, a reality the Cubs acknowledged when they let Joe Maddon become a free agent.
Evan Altman, CubsInsider.com
So how does a core group of players fall from a 95-win season to 84-78? Start by having a quiet offseason with no significant upgrades. Then factor in the inevitable decline of most players eclipsing 30 years of age. Despite a choppy first half, the Cubs were buyers at the trade deadline. Free agent Craig Kimbrel was brought in to bolster a struggling bullpen and Nicholas Castellanos was snagged from the Tigers. Castellanos was a boon to the outfield but Kimbrel, plagued with injuries, struggled along with the rest of the relief unit. The nail in the coffin: getting swept by the Pirates in September. No wonder Epstein was ready to turn the page and move on.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 84-78
This team has impressive core position players in Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo. Even if their best years are behind them, each of these guys should have 4+ WAR seasons. Wilson Contreras and Victor Caratini are a nice pair behind the dish, though I would contend that Kyle Schwarber is the pivot point of the Cubs lineup. The left fielder is no defensive stalwart but a .250 AVG/35 HR/90 RBI season at the plate is sufficient for an outfield lacking power otherwise.
What will the Cubs get out of their veteran-heavy rotation? Smarter baseball minds than mine believe that Darvish will return to his 2017 form, given his great second half last year after a year-and-a-half of frustration. Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are solid starters but the big upside in my eyes lies with Kyle Hendricks. Can the 30-year old crank out another 3+ WAR season? The bullpen is much closer to an average unit than last year’s subpar output. Craig Kimbrel’s health is a big part of this, but guys like Rowan Wick, Brad Wieck, Kyle Ryan, and former Brewer Jeremy Jeffress are more than qualified to hold down the fort.
The Cubs 2020 win total should be business as usual. Last year, Chicago’s Pythag win total was six greater than their actual record, 90 to 84. This wonky metric reinforces the common perception that they really underachieved last year. My projection for an 84-win season this year expects continuity in achievement levels, or lack thereof. It’s rooted in the expectation of a small decline in starting pitching and hitting with a return to the median from the bullpen. Although it should be a crowded house, the Cubs have as good of a crack at the NL Central crown as anyone. I’ll pass on Chicago’s win total considering how close my number is to the current win total. Plus, the possibility of Bryant being moved at the deadline if they lag the playoff pack could jeopardize the over.
Cincinnati Reds 2020 Win Total: Open 82, Now 83.5
2019 Win Total: Under 79 (75-87)
I don’t really want to talk about another year of sub-.500 baseball from my Cincinnati Reds, but since I must, let’s start with a kind but realistic word: “underperforming.” The Reds fell four games below their win total and finished with five fewer wins than their Pythagorean win-loss record of 80-82. In all fairness, their 75-win season was a significant improvement over the previous season’s 67-95. Cincinnati brought in pitching coach Derek Johnson from Milwaukee to help transform a jumbled mishmash of pitchers into a legitimate rotation and bullpen.
What Johnson did in Cincinnati in 2019 was emphasize improving his pitchers’ ability to miss bats and finish off hitters. Using his logic, you can prevent home runs by preventing contact.
“What I was interested in was knowing that guys can’t hit home runs when they miss the ball. We’ve talked organizationally about groundball pitchers. That’s something they were after for a long time. That makes 100 percent sense. I wanted to take that further, how can we make guys miss more?”
BaseballAmerica.com’s 2019 MLB Coach Of The Year: Derek Johnson
The Reds confidently answered “yes” to those asking whether Sonny Gray could get up off the mat and whether Luis Castillo could produce a full season of dominant pitching. For the first time in forever, it wasn’t the pitching holding the Reds back. Their offense was the issue, too often a swing-and-miss. Cincy started the season 1-8 without Scooter Gennett and promising young outfielder Nick Senzel. Eugenio Suarez provided a bright spot in the Cincinnati lineup and made a serious run for the home run crown. Ultimately, the Reds were out of the playoff hunt in mid-summer and swapped Yasiel Puig with Cleveland for Trevor Bauer in what could prove to be a big-upside move.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 83-79
As a handicapper, I have to put my feelings as a fan aside. That being said, my enthusiasm is higher that it’s been in recent memory. Although they could make a run for the division title, I peg their probable wins as somewhere in the 80-85 range. Management was quite active yet again in the offseason, bringing in slugger Nick Castellanos, flexible infielder Mike Moustakas, and veteran starter Wade Miley.
The Reds infield should be solid once Eugenio Suarez returns from an injury suffered in a swimming pool. Sabermetricians expect Joey Votto to bounce back offensively in 2020 and straddle the 2-WAR line. Unfortunately, their outfield is crowded and seems to lack defensive prowess, although this is less of a factor in a smaller field like Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati imported 31-year old Shogo Akiyama from Japan, offering promise but raising concerns about how rising guys like Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel, and Phillip Ervin will get playing time.
The Reds rotation should be tops in the NL Central, with potential to be one of the best in the National League. Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Trevor Bauer all have 3+ WAR capability under Derek Johnson. DeSclafani and Miley add depth in their absence and are solid anchors on the back end. Cincy’s bullpen should be an above-average unit again this season with a core consisting of Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, and Michael Lorenzen. They aren’t spectacular – even with the addition of Pedro Strop – but are effective when matched with coach Derek Johnson. I would love to see the Reds go 88-74, but I remain skeptical and me and my projected 83 wins will stay on the sidelines.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2020 Win Total: Open 71, Now 69.5
2019 Win Total: Under 78.5 (69-93)
Managerial changes are common headlines in the NL Central these days. Nine-year Pirates manager Clint Hurdle was let go after the team’s second-half collapse last year. He and pitching coach Ray Searidge lead the club to the playoffs in 2013, 2014, & 2015 – huge for a franchise that has had only four winning seasons in the last 27 years. But follow that with four straight years of failing to meet expectations, and Hurdle’s reign ended. In all fairness, the front office sure didn’t do him many favors in recent years.
Management’s big offseason move was to send promising pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay for ace Chris Archer. The heart and soul of the Pirates, Andrew McCutcheon, was already gone but Starling Marte and Josh Bell showed new promise heading into the 2019 season. The rotation’s true ace, Chris Archer, worked well alongside Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove. Unfortunately, they lost Taillon early in the season to Tommy John surgery. Bell and Marte were absolute studs at the plate but the team as a whole proved to be a mess down the stretch. The little depth they had looked depleted by summer. Hurdle and his crew were out after a 69-win, last-place finish.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 73-89
My expectation for a five game improvement seems downright crazy, especially with a new manager running the show. The Pirates brought in Minnesota bench coach Derek Shelton for a change in direction. They’ll need some magic to rub off from the Twins’ record-setting 2019 season to get to 73 wins. Trading Starling Marte to Arizona and losing Jameson Taillon to injury are big hurdles to overcome. Sure, they still have slugger Josh Bell and up-and-coming centerfielder Bryan Reynolds. But the question remains: where will the wins come from?
Pittsburgh’s bullpen was downright brutal last year but should be closer to average in 2020. Keep your eye on Keone Kela, who could become one of the better closers in the league – if he’s given enough opportunities to slam the door on Pirates victories. Their rotation should also be average. Archer and Musgrove are still a 5+ WAR tandem with 23 year-old Mitch Keller potentially giving them a spark. The bats leave a lot to be desired, and that issue isn’t likely to be solved in 2020. Kevin Newman and Adam Frazier provide solid defense up the middle but little support at the plate. This is a club that will rely on stringing together timely hits to give their pitchers just enough run support to win. That’s a precarious game plan. The pitching situation is borderline fragile and the offense lacks substance, pushing me away from the Pittsburgh win total.
2020 NL Central Projected Standings
- St. Louis Cardinals (87-75)
- Chicago Cubs (84-78)
- Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
- Milwaukee Brewers (78-84)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (73-89)
Spring Fever!
It’s anyone’s ballgame in the 2020 NL Central, making this divisional race a must-follow. Will a leader emerge and provide in-season value for divisional futures betting? Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to email notifications for all of our new content. If you missed our NL West and AL Central previews, follow the links and get caught up. The MLB page at BetCrushers.com is home to all our daily plays and futures bets, so be sure to bookmark it and check in throughout the season!
