After two days with just a handful of college basketball games, we finally get a solid menu to handicap. On the bright side, those short slates gave us more time to put together a focused NFL Week 15 card going into the playoffs. We left off Wednesday evening with a close (closer than it needed to be) cover with Cornell +11.5 at Colgate, ending a short dry spell on the hardwood. Fresh off of the break, let’s jump into the BetCrushers.com NCAAB Road Dog Report for 12/14/2019!
(737) Evansville Aces @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix -2.5
Evansville wants to deal up a few more wins before entering tough Missouri Valley Conference play. The Purple Aces aren’t expected to make waves in their conference despite a respectable 7-3 start to the season. When you peel back the layers, their below-average level of competition other than their highlight upset of Kentucky a month ago is a big reason for this record.
Green Bay comes into tonight’s matchup with a mirror-opposite 3-7 record and a stronger resume. They should be happy to be home after playing four on the road and dropping their last three. The Phoenix have an experienced team stocked with seniors and an established starting five that features freshman guard Amari Davis (shout out to Trotwood-Madison HS). Davis is averaging 16 PPG and is shooting a gaudy 60.5% from the floor.
The Phoenix are used to playing in high-scoring affairs. They’re averaging 80.1 PPG and shoot 46.4% from the floor. Problem is, they give up 83.5 PPG and 49.1% shooting to their opponents. Evansville is having considerable success with a collective 37.6% from downtown. Since Green Bay has not done well defending the perimeter, guys like Sam Cuncliffe and Noah Frederking could keep the Aces in the game and/or pull away with clutch shots.
Another matchup to pay attention to is Evansville’s 6’9″ sophomore forward Deandre Williams. Williams is complementary to the Aces’ good perimeter shooting and could end up with a double-double on 7-for-9 shooting and a bunch of boards. Green Bay’s Cody Schwartz will need a strong defensive effort to shut Willams down this evening. My biggest concern with this Road Dog is turnovers. The Phoenix excel at turning their opponents over and now face an Evansville team that is prone to coughing it up.
On the Money
Both teams are 4-5 ATS, though they have differing levels of success with home/road splits. Green Bay was 0-2 ATS at home in their brief home stand before Thanksgiving. They had a close 85-41 win over Cal State Northridge as a 10-point favorite and a big loss to Colgate as a 3.5-point dog.
Evansville’s signature win in Lexington came as 25-point dogs, though I have a hard time putting too much stock into that fluky game. Their other true road win came at IUPUI (70-64) as a 4-point favorite. Both IUPUI and Northridge are teams we rate well below average. Without any significant ATS results to lean on, we see the Evansville offensive attack most likely outweighing the probability for Green Bay to run away with it via turnovers. Evansville +2.5 is our evening play on the Road Dog Report for 12/14/2019.
(1309) Wagner Seahawks @ Hartford Hawks -4
This afternoon’s battle of the raptors pits the NEC’s Wagner Seahawks against America East’s Hartford Hawks at the Chase Family Arena. It has not been pretty this year for the boys from Staten Island, who are 2-5 and experienced a 23-point thumping by St. John’s a couple weeks ago. Hartford’s 4-7 record has come against a weak strength of schedule, which contrasts with Wagner’s slate against opponents like Penn State and Seton Hall.
Both of these teams are young and relatively inexperienced, though Wagner has leaned on senior transfer Curtis Cobb for a significant part of their offense. Cobb averages 21.6 PPG and has stepped up (out of necessity, you could argue) for the young Seahawks squad. They are quite small when compared to Hartford’s two towers down low. Sophomore forward Hunter Marks and freshman forward Miroslav Stafl are 6’9″ and 6’10”, respectively. They could be a matchup problem for Wagner’s smaller forward rotation of Patrick Spizr, Nigel Jackson, and Darion Jordan-Thomas.
On the Money
Neither team has been successful ATS. Wagner’s 2-4 mark is barely better than Hartford’s 3-6. Even worse is the Seahawks’ 1-4 record ATS on the road, all of which came as dogs. Their loss to NJIT was the most disappointing, especially when compared to the big losses at the powerhouses noted above.
Hartford’s 3-6 ATS looks even worse when you isolate their performance at home. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home, which includes two times as a favorite and two times as a dog. Has Wagner become desensitized on the road after visiting big competition? Perhaps. I rate Wagner about 1-2 points better than Hartford, making +4 a solid play considering that the home court advantage should be quite small this afternoon.
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