Everyone needs a good ol’ fashioned gut punch to keep them humble, right? Yesterday’s 1-4 is a perfect example, although it’s all about maintaining progress to reach your goal. We didn’t achieve a solid 56% ATS on the court last season without some days like this. That said, let’s get after it with the NCAAB Road Dog Report for 12/8/2019.
Saturday in Review
Saturday’s action had it all: second-half meltdowns, blowouts, and tight finishes. I already said that it was important to move forward to achieve goals, but some of the best learning lessons come from looking back at your work. What were bad reads and where did the result simply fall short of expectation?
Miami (OH) +4 @ Evansville
Despite Miami holding a 2-point lead at the break, the second half was all Purple Aces. Nike Sibande had a great game for the Redhawks, posting 34 points in 28 minutes. However, key cog Dalonte Brown was in foul trouble and provided a limited contribution.
My biggest concern with going against Evansville was their ability to get to the free throw line and to nail down three-pointers. At least this part of the handicap was right; the Aces were 21-30 from the line and 12-24 from downtown. All of this plus 64% shooting from the field equated to a banner game from the home team. Evansville was very strong on the glass, providing them with plenty of opportunities to pull away down the stretch.
Hofstra +3 @ St. Bonaventure
Hofstra was an unmitigated disaster yesterday that I must own as a “bad read”. Their 9th-best free throw shooting this season was thrown out of the window as they made only 10-20 from the stripe. St. Bonaventure shot slightly better than their average coming into the matchup, but the Pride was downright awful with 27% shooting from the floor including 3-19 from beyond the arc. Big swing and a miss on that one.
S. Illinois +2 @ S. Mississippi
The Salukis rode some serious waves in this one. They got out to a 24-7 lead that evaporated, but a nice run put them up by 8 at half. Southern Mississippi rallied out of the break to take a big lead that, in turn, was chipped away at by Southern Illinois before a turnover with 6 seconds led to the Golden Eagles chucking in two free throws to wrestle away the cover. That’s all part of the hoops game and this ain’t no bad beat story.
My handicap for this game came down to Southern Illinois being more protective of the ball and a better shooting team. The Salukis lost the turnover margin 17-13 and were outshot by the Golden Eagles 48% to 57%. A swingy game with a tight finish is nothing out of the ordinary. The handicap didn’t paint the gameplay properly, but the result was damn close.
IPFW +2 @ Illinois-Chicago
I said that the oddsmakers had made Illinois-Chicago an undeserved favorite given IPFW’s performance on the road this season. I was clearly wrong as the Flames dominated the Mastodons from start to finish. IPFW shot 10 percentage points below their average and was terrible from downtown (5-29). On the flip side, UIC shot 10 percentage points better than their average despite Tarkus Ferguson having a bad shooting day that he offset by dishing out 10 assists. Simply put, this was a disappointing performance from IPFW considering they won the turnover battle by a significant 9-18 margin.
Sacramento St. +1 @ Cal St. Fullerton
Representing the lone win, you’d expect a more thorough retrospective look at this one. However, it’s pretty cut-and-dried. I didn’t expect Fullerton to break 60 points and that was (barely) correct, as the Hornets edged them 62-59. The handicap was all about market performance in that Sacramento State was 3-0 ATS on the road and Fullerton had covered as a favorite only once.
Sunday’s Handicap: Central Michigan @ Valparaiso -3
The Central Michigan Chippewas hit the road for only the third time this season, taking on the Valparaiso Crusaders. This number has moved to -3 and, on face value, the move makes sense. Valpo has been nearly a mirror opposite, as they have played only three home games up to this point (all winners).
The Chippewas’ season statistics have a lot of noise due to matchups with Michigan-Dearborn, Siena Heights, and Trinity Christian. Despite winning all of these games by at least 40 points, they struggled on the road against Minnesota and DePaul. These are the lone blemishes on their 7-2 record.
Central Michigan’s scoring is led by four seniors with four juniors providing significant contributions. The blowout wins against lesser competition provided these opportunities to the bench, with their three reserve juniors playing about 58 minutes/game. Morgan, DiLeo, McKay, and Montgomery diversify the CMU offensive threat with 57.8 PPG between them.
Valpo’s offense is led by sophomore sensation Javon Freeman, who is dropping nearly 23 PPG. Daniel Sackey is paired with Freeman in the backcourt as a tremendous ball distributor. The Crusaders handle the ball well and will pick your pocket, leading to important scoring opportunities to offset their mediocre shooting averages.
They’ll face a Chippewa squad that also values winning the turnover battle (89-162) and getting to the free throw line. Adjustments to the three non-D1 games moderates some of the large statistical differences, but CMU is still a team that can put up points. They disappointed with only 57 points at Minnesota; an anomaly considering they should get close to 80 this afternoon against a Valpo defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 50.3% from the field. The Chips need to eclipse the 80 mark to keep pace with a Valpo offense that also has the ability to get to that number.
On the Money
Central Michigan has been anything but a cash cow as an underdog this season. They could not cover the +10 and +11.5 at Minnesota and DePaul. The Chippewas fell short laying 10 points against Tennessee Martin but has cashed as both small and big favorites in three other games.
On the other hand, Valparaiso covered their two home games as both a favorite and a dog. They dropped their last three games straight up while managing to get the cover at Cincinnati. Valpo’s 5-3 ATS record is significant, as they are willing and able to get their backers the cash.
Valpo snuck in a win against non-D1 Trinity Christian during this latest “losing streak”. It is inappropriate to overweigh a comparison of their 98-71 win to CMU’s 106-60 victory over the same opponent, but it is a legitimate comparable to evaluate. The Chips scored more and held Trinity to less points than the Crusaders did on both ends, despite CMU holding a bigger halftime advantage and arguably being in a position to let off the gas. We’ll take the 3 points in what should be a tight one!
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