The NASCAR Playoffs intensity gets dialed up another notch this week at Texas Motor Speedway. Messin’ with Texas is not a good idea, but it’s not quite as bad as starting a slap-boxing match on pit road. The stakes are high so let’s jump right into the BetCrushers.com NASCAR Texas race preview!
Three Slots Open and Two Weeks Left
Martin Truex, Jr. earned the first free pass into the final race of the NASCAR Playoffs with a dominant win at Martinsville last week. Truex continued his hot postseason run on the half-mile with win #3 of the 2019 playoffs. MTJ appears to be the man to beat, especially considering that he has placed outside of the Top 10 in only one of the seven postseason races this year.
Another engine malfunction doomed Chase Elliott early at Martinsville and has effectively knocked him out of Championship contention, notwithstanding a win at Texas or Phoenix. Kyle Larson’s 9th place finish wasn’t good enough to get him out of trouble, though Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano improved their positions with Top 10 finishes. Ryan Blaney inched his way toward the cut line with an impressive 2nd place finish, despite being on the outside looking in with two races to go.
Kyle Busch’s 14th-place finish last week pushed him closer to the danger zone after coming into the postseason on top of the standings. Anyone not named Martin Truex, Jr. will need to bring their A-games for the next two races to sustain their Championship hopes. Here’s what the contenders have to say about this week’s venue:
Texas Motor Speedway Details
Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.44-mile quad-oval built in 1995. Yes, we said quad-oval. Look at is this way, it’s somewhere in between an oval like Indianapolis Motor Speedway and a tri-oval like Kansas Speedway. The track was repaved and renovated in 2017 to improve drainage and widen the surface from 60′ to 80′. Banking is key to maintaining high speeds on multiple grooves on this newly-widened track. Turns 1 & 2 are banked 20 degrees, while Turns 3 & 4 are each 24 degrees.
Texas is part of a trifecta of similar tracks with Atlanta and Charlotte Motor Speedways. This is valuable handicapping knowledge since we can expand our track sensitivity for drivers we analyze beyond Texas Motor Speedway. While a driver’s past performance here is of primary importance, looking to the two sister tracks for further guidance broadens our knowledge base.
Weekend Schedule
The Cup Series is back to a typical weekend schedule that kicks off with dual practices Friday afternoon. Qualifying comes late on Saturday about four hours past Sunday’s start to the AAA Texas 500. This adds an interesting wrinkle to handicapping the race because only the practice sessions are run in the same timeframe that the race is in. We gain much more insight from practice, but qualifying establishes the starting grid.
As our betting approach evolves with additional wagering options, so does our NASCAR handicapping coverage. We started this summer using a two-article approach, consisting of a mid-week race preview and a final wrap-up on the weekend. For the remainder of the 2019 season, BetCrushers.com will combine both into a single article before practices are run. Most of our wagers are placed before the weekend activities commence, so you’ll have our full analysis and plays before the broader betting markets are taken down.
Who’s Who at Texas?
Once upon a time, Texas Motor Speedway was (figuratively) owned by Jimmie Johnson. There was a stretch from 2012 to 2015 when he won five out of seven races here. That well dried up after his last win in spring 2017, though he managed to place 5th at Texas this spring. Denny Hamlin won the last Cup Series race here, and the defending champion of the AAA Texas 500 is Kevin Harvick. The odds to win Sunday’s race have not moved much since the open, and looked like this on Thursday morning:
Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. sit as the mid-week co-favorites. Ringers like Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano are in a pack of five hungry drivers on their heels at +770. Another book we have an account with has more variation for the odds of drivers in the upper mid-tier, ranging from +600 to +1000. Long shot seekers will find plenty of names capable of stealing a checkered flag at odds greater than 20/1 this week.
Kevin Harvick: Happy in Texas
Harvick lacks a coveted 2019 postseason win that would propel him to the Championship round in two weeks. However, it’s hard to find a guy who has been more consistent in the seven playoff races so far. Harvick’s 17th-place finish at Talladega was his lone non-Top 10. Unfortunately, he sits on the wrong side of the cut line and has Ryan Blaney sitting only one point behind him.
If there’s anybody other than MTJ that should be overflowing with confidence this week, it’s Kevin Harvick. He won the last two playoff races at Texas Motor Speedway despite some calling last year’s victory “tainted”. Furthermore, Happy hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 here since 2014! During that impressive ten-race stretch, he’s won twice and has five more Top 5 finishes.
How has Harvick done at the sister tracks of Atlanta and Charlotte? Atlanta is another honey hole for Kevin; it’s a track where he finished Top 10 in eleven of the last thirteen races, including a win in 2018. Harvick has Top 10 finishes in fourteen of seventeen Charlotte races, although he has a couple recent bad outings due to accident and a mechanical issue.
Kevin Harvick +115 vs. Kyle Busch
Rare is the week that the oddsmakers have not applied a premium to Kyle Busch. He’s priced right there with the hottest postseason driver, MTJ, despite finding the Top 10 only three times in seven playoff races. Busch is by no means a lock at Texas in recent years. He won the spring 2018 Texas race but finished no better than 10th in four of the last five.
Kyle is above average at Atlanta but has been a boss lately at Charlotte. Despite a disappointing 29th in 2018, he’s delivered no worse than a 6th place finish in four of his last five there. Compared to Harvick’s strong track record at Texas and consistency at the sister tracks, Kyle has a wider range of likely finishes with a lower ceiling than Kevin, making +115 on Happy Harvick a smart play.
Kevin Harvick +115 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
We have a lot of respect for Truex and the dominant postseason he’s having. Oddsmakers are respecting this run with the low price on Martin to win at Texas. As opposed to the premium tagged onto Kyle Busch, the price tag on MTJ is justified. Truex isn’t particularly strong at Texas, but is damn good at Atlanta. He’s on a whole different level at Charlotte, winning three of the last six with a runner-up and a 3rd all in the last three years.
Harvick has outraced Truex in the last five at Texas, although MTJ was the runner-up to him in the 2017 playoff race. This matchup is tighter than the Harvick/Busch play because of Martin’s current hot streak. Nonetheless, +115 to back Harvick on this track is a reasonable way to double-down on Kevin.
Martin Truex, Jr. -115 vs. Kyle Busch
Let’s revisit a point made in the Harvick/Busch matchup analysis: “He’s priced right there with the hottest driver in the postseason, MTJ, despite finding the Top 10 only three times in seven playoff races this year.” Truex may be willing to let his guard down after locking in a Championship round berth, but we’re of the mindset that MTJ will be highly competitive on Sunday. He can still take this matchup without being overly aggressive if the #19 team brings their A-game. Truex has outraced Kyle in five of this year’s seven postseason races and we’ll happily back him in this pick ’em matchup.
Kurt Busch: The Better Brother in Texas (+100 to Top 10)
Kurt knows how to race in the Lone Star State. He doesn’t get the attention and splash like his brother, which is fair because he’s a low-key steady performer at Texas Motor Speedway. Busch slid his way into the Top 10 in the five previous Texas races and seven of the last eight.
Despite not winning at Atlanta since his Penske Racing days, he’s made the Top 10 in ten of the last thirteen there. How about Charlotte? Top 10 in six of the last eight races there. On top of all the track-specific trends, Kurt managed to T10 three of the last four postseason races and makes +100 to Top 10 at Texas our final play of the week.
Erik Jones: On the Cusp
Another driver that might be worth a look this weekend is Erik Jones. His postseason struggles have been well documented, but that disappointment should be well behind him. He’s been respectable since Round 2 and has been strong at Texas lately. Since moving to the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, he’s registered three straight 4th place finishes. The question at hand is whether Jones is on the rebound, so is +100 to finish in the Top 10 worth a bet?
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Texas
- Kevin Harvick +115 vs. Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick +115 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
- Martin Truex, Jr. -115 vs. Kyle Busch
- Kyle Busch +100 to Top 10
