Tyler Reddick’s historic streak ends at three, but not without a valiant effort at Phoenix Raceway. The ringers were just too tough to hang with, notably Christopher Bell and race winner Ryan Blaney. After all, those two were the fastest on track all afternoon. The final chase was a fitting end for everyone but the #20 team after Blaney’s multiple back-to-front charges. Now the NASCAR Cup Series action heads to Las Vegas for the 2026 Pennzoil 400 where speed is king and the big guns reign supreme.
- Track type: intermediate
- Track length: 1.5 miles
- Laps/total miles: 267/400
- Stage lengths (laps): 80/85/102
Handicapping the 2026 Pennzoil 400
Last week’s featured handicap for Phoenix was sweatier than it needed to be. Christopher Bell shared the performance crown with race winner Ryan Blaney as one of the strongest cars on the track. But his even-money underdog position against Denny Hamlin was sweatier than it needed to be. Nonetheless, the W came through as did the entire betting card in part due to Kyle Larson’s late rally. There’s a reason Ms. JJ calls Larson “the cockroach”. You just can’t count out Cliff Daniels and that team from getting the car tuned up and in contention.
As our friend Paul always called the 1.5-mile intermediates, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a “bread and butter” NASCAR track. And there’s enough similar tracks to form a very solid ratings platform for the 30-year old oval. Its “sister track” and primary comp is Kansas as referenced in the ifantasyrace.com Similar Track Guide. Charlotte, Texas, and Michigan are secondary comps that add more data points at a lower weighting. Plus Ryan notes in the guide that “tire-wear hasn’t proven to be a huge issue but it’s increasing.” That’s something to keep an eye on Saturday in practice and qualifying, though likely just a long-term aspect to monitor.
The Las Vegas Landscape
Note that Alex Bowman is out of the #48 again this week. Justin Allgaier will fill his seat, so disregard AB’s position in the power ratings. Current form is still weighed at a reduced rate for a couple more weeks. That aspect will be added to the ratings plots soon to better visualize that component. Plus I am at 80% of my typical betting unit size most likely until Martinsville or Bristol. It’s good to get a taste of multiple track types before drawing too many conclusions on the 2026 season. We’ve had action on superspeedways, a shorter track, a road course, and now a standard intermediate. Things are starting to take shape.
Much like the pre-qualifying power ratings plot from Phoenix, this week features a cluster of top teams who have generally shown consistent success at Las Vegas and the other 1.5-mile intermediates. Denny Hamlin’s stock rose after winning at Michigan and Las Vegas in the second half of the 2025 season in addition to a Kansas runner-up. Christopher Bell is up there as usual but lacks the consistency of our #1 power rated driver, Kyle Larson, with four top 5 finishes in the last six races. Larson’s resume speaks for itself and the market prices on the #5 reflect it.
Reading Between the Lines
Ross Chastain has also been a force to reckon with at Vegas in the Gen7 era. Of the eight Cup Series races run in this period, the #1 Chevy has five top 5 finishes plus a P7 with top 10 performance numbers in all but last fall’s race. Chase Briscoe is another one who deserves a little extra attention given last year’s spike in intermediate track performance. He’s buried in the lower half of the plot in terms of pure Las Vegas and intermediate comp success since his tenure in the SHR #14 was not very fruitful. Four P4 or better finishes last season at Kansas, Charlotte, and Las Vegas moved him up the ranks, though the jury is out whether this team takes another big step forward over the second half of 2025.
Featured Head-To-Head Matchup
D Hamlin (-114) vs. R Blaney (-114)
We got the full Ryan Blaney Experience last week at Phoenix. One of two fastest cars on the track, sent toward the back at least twice, then rallies for the win. As both a Blaney and Christopher Bell fan, I wasn’t going to be unhappy with the result as long as the race stayed green. The #12 team has had several close calls here at Las Vegas despite some rough luck of late. My mind always flashes back to 2020 when he pitted from the lead on a late caution as I was holding Win and Top 5 tickets on him. Nobody else came to pit road and Ryan finished outside the top 5. Betting scars can run deep, and that is one of them.
Enough of that. Ryan Blaney is one of the best in the Cup Series, arguably held back by occasional pit road issues and frustration behind the wheel. Although driving angry serves him well at times. The #12 team is “due” for a top finish in the early Las Vegas race, having struck out in three of the last four. And very few have the same momentum as Blaney right now. Recent highlights on intermediate tracks in general include a Nashville win and P3 finishes in the spring Kansas race and at Texas. Plus they’ve delivered top five performances at Vegas off-and-on going back to 2022. You can make a similar case for Blaney at Kansas as well, where his results are sporadically great and race quality peaks a bit more frequently.
Starting with the primary comp track of Kansas, Hamlin is one of the best active drivers in terms of finishes and speed. At Las Vegas, however, the #11 JGR squad bumps down a notch without the consistent top finishes aside from last fall’s win. They’ve had their stumbles here but typically rate in the top ten. Granted, that level of very good but not great has fallen short of Blaney’s performance several times. To be fair, a top 5 finish from the #12 Ford most likely beats out Hamlin this week. And if it isn’t obvious enough from the power ratings plot (without form elements), we make the #11 a significant favorite in this matchup despite all the “what ifs” underlining the Blaney camp.
WAGER: Hamlin -114 > Blaney
I think it’s safe to say the #12 crew carries a lot more variance in this situation compared to the #11. In other words, Denny is a “boring” guy to back this week while Ryan rides the Big Mo from the Phoenix win and elite race quality there and at COTA. Momentum is a big reason why the books make these two close to equal in the various placing markets. We’ll take the more muted profile of Denny Hamlin against the roller coaster ride that Ryan Blaney presents. I won’t be surprised if Blaney claims back-to-back victories, but our money is on Hamlin early this week.
Green Flag Action
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