PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-2

SEASON RESULTS:
51-42

Week 16 Recap:

Prop Corner started out looking for a clean sweep in week 16, but we got clipped on the two primetime contests which resulted in a 4-2 mark for the weekend. Things started out well in the early window, as Tet McMillan was the latest in a long line of receivers torching the Bucs’ secondary. And Shedeur Sanders wasn’t terrible against the Bills, but fell well short of his yardage total against their top ranked pass defense. We hit both of our Jaguars covers, just barely with one. Travis Etienne was held under his rushing total as we predicted, and Trevor Lawrence escaped covering his 19.5 rushing total with 20 rushing yards on the day. Our first loss came in fading Derrick Henry, as we knew there was risk. He made us pay with a strong showing against the Patriots. It would have actually been worse had the Ravens actually played him more in the 4th quarter. And our most surprising loss/analysis came with Christian McCaffrey, as we were backing his receiving total. We expected McCaffrey to get bottled up on the ground, and that simply never happened. As a result, he was less needed in the passing attack and couldn’t get to his lofty mark. A winning week nonetheless, and some momentum heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.

Week 17 Preview:

Is it lazy to copy/paste this? Well, we’re doing it, and adding a little tweak for our week 17 preview. Things can be tricky when it gets to this point in the season with player props. Are teams eliminated? Who has the most motivation? What’s the weather looking like? We tried to factor in all of that as we really only have one player that is playing in a “meaningless” game this weekend. Six bets on our card. Happy New Year!

Our Picks:

Jonathan Taylor – Under 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Things move fast in the National Football League as the Colts and Jonathan Taylor are experiencing the hard way. After OPOY and even MVP talk at the midway point in the season, the Colts are now on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and Taylor has looked very pedestrian over the last month. The sportsbooks have adapted a bit, bringing his yardage total down to the mid 70’s, but that may not be enough. Since his 244 yard explosion in Germany against the Falcons, Taylor is averaging below 3.5 yards per carry, and is struggling to get any kind of explosive plays. He’ll face the rival Jaguars who have their eyes on top seeding in the AFC playoff picture, and would love to also give another loss to Indy. Jacksonville has been a little up and down with their run defense this season, but they’ve been pretty solid as a whole body of work. They held Taylor just under this mark when they played a few weeks ago, and we’re going to see if they can do it again this weekend. The Jaguars offense on the other side has been putting up points at a high clip, so this game should feature more passing, than running. Taylor is always a threat to house one from 50 plus, so this under could burst, but from what we’ve seen out of him over the last few weeks, we’ll take our chances.

Philip Rivers – Over 206.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We mentioned we expect some passing in this ballgame, so naturally we’re going to back 44 year old Philip Rivers, in what will be start number three off of the couch. Rivers threw a pick six last week against the San Francisco 49ers, but other than that, he actually played really well. The Colts were able to open up their offensive playbook, and that should continue against Jacksonville. Rivers isn’t throwing the ball downfield particularly well, as one might expect, but he was decisive and accurate on short and intermediate routes last week, finding his playmakers. He will need to continue to work that with some missing starters on the offensive line. In a game that should see some scoring, a total barely eclipsing 200 yards seems more than do-able for Rivers and this offense. After knocking on the door of 300 yards last week, he should manage to get over this total.

Trey McBride – Over 73.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The league’s most productive tight end is coming off of his least productive game of the season as he couldn’t get free against a Falcons defense that has stymied opposing tight ends all year. McBride was targeted 9 times, but only secured four catches for 27 yards, numbers well below what he’s been doing during his TE1 season. We’re fully expecting a big get right game for McBride against the Cincinnati Bengals, who unlike the Falcons, has had all sorts of trouble stopping opposing tight ends. Cincinnati ranks dead last in that department, and although their defense as a unit has improved in the second half of the season, they have still allowed a lot of yards to the tight end position. McBride has really flourished with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and the two should be able to pick up where they left off before facing Atlanta. The Bengals figure to light up the scoreboard against the Falcons banged up defense as well, so there should be a lot of passing as usual for Arizona, who is still playing with third and fourth string running backs. This is a really high number for a tight end, but McBride puts up more wide receiver type numbers than tight end numbers. We’ll give him a shot to get a cover.

Justin Herbert – Under 209.5 Yards Passing (-115)

If you don’t like playing soured numbers this might be a wager for you to avoid. Justin Herbert’s yardage total opened at 214.5 at most books, and has been bet down to 209.5 as of Friday. We’re still going to fade the superstar in his crucial matchup against the Texans because there are simply too many things working against him. Herbert was money against a weak Cowboys defense last week hitting the 300 yard mark, but prior to that he’d been struggling to hit the 200 yard mark in his previous five contests. Now he’ll face a team that is strong rushing on the edges, and has an elite secondary. Herbert has the luxury of good receiving weapons that could potentially battle with the Texans secondary, but he does not have the blockers capable of containing the Houston pass rush. Herbert’s offensive line could be even more depleted as Mekhi Becton looks very “iffy” to go at guard. Will Anderson, Jr. and Danielle Hunter have made good offensive tackles look bad, they should have a field day against the backups playing for the Chargers. If Herbert can carve up this defense, more power to him, it just seems really unlikely that will be able to happen here.

Tony Pollard – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Don’t look now, but after a really bland season running the football, the Titans Tony Pollard all of a sudden has burst on to the scene with three consecutive games over 100 yards rushing, and now needs just 51 yards to get to 1,000 on the season. During this stretch, the Titans offense as a whole has really looked a lot better as rookie QB Cam Ward is starting to find some rhythm leading the team. The sportsbooks know Pollard needs his yardage to hit 1,000 and get a bonus, so there isn’t much value there, but there is with the fact this offensive line is really getting a good push late in the season. Pollard should have some continued success against a Saints defense that has been better defending the pass than the run. New Orleans isn’t terrible against the run, but they’re not really good against it either. A middle of the pack matchup with the way Pollard and this offensive line is playing seems pretty appealing for a back who is averaging over 6 yards per carry over the last month of the season. Let’s see if Pollard can stay hot for another week and get himself over a 1,000 yard season for a cover.

Brock Purdy – Over 253.5 Yards Passing (-115)

A really important NFC matchup takes place when the San Francisco 49ers tackle the Chicago Bears with major playoff implications on the line. It took Niners QB Brock Purdy a couple of games to find his form after returning from his turf toe injury, but he seems to have located it over the last two weekends. Purdy has thrown for 295 yards in each of the last two games, and should have another potential shootout coming against Chicago. While it’s unknown if tight end George Kittle will be able to go just yet, Purdy should get a boost with Ricky Pearsall returning to the lineup at receiver. The Bears have also struggled defending running backs in the passing game, which means we could see a lot of Christian McCaffrey getting the ball in space. Both Purdy and the 49ers offense can be a little streaky and right now they’re clearly on one of the hot streaks. This should be a fun football game to watch, and Purdy should play well.

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