PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-4

SEASON RESULTS:
47-40

Week 15 Recap:

No bueno last week for Prop Corner as the BetCrushers only mustered one cover on five wagers. Our lone win came in fading Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, as the Raiders were blown out, and he was unable to really even get started against the Eagles. You gotta feel for that guy a little bit behind that offensive line, but also wager against him. Next came the losses… After a fast start and on track in the first half to cover his passing total, Drake Maye disappeared in the second half, as the Patriots blew a 21-0 lead to the Bills. The Ravens kind of dissected the Bengals, and Mark Andrews was a part of that, but not a big enough part to cover against the league’s worst defense at defending tight ends. Jahmyr Gibbs, for the first time in weeks wasn’t very involved in the passing game for the Lions, and only got about halfway to his total we were backing. And probably the most disappointing loss was our favorite bet of the week, Patrick Mahomes rushing yards over, for a multiple time. That looked great, as Mahomes took off for a 13 yard touchdown run in the first quarter of their season-ending loss. He managed only 2 more yards the rest of the way, before exiting late with the unfortunate ACL tear, also ending his season.

Week 15 Preview:

Things can be tricky when it gets to this point in the season with player props. Are teams eliminated? Who has the most motivation? What’s the weather looking like? We tried to factor in all of that as we really only have one player that is playing in a “meaningless” game this weekend. Six total wagers with a few overs and a few unders. Let’s see if we can get back on track.

Our Picks:

Travis Etienne – Under 61.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has had a nice season, and is setting himself up for a solid payday as he finishes out his rookie deal. The Jaguars improved offensive line play, along with Liam Cohen’s offense has allowed Etienne to put together a lot of consistency. That minimal peaks have come against weaker opponents, and the valleys have come against tougher rush defenses. Sunday the Jags are underdogs against the red-hot Broncos and their vaunted defense. There is no doubt the offense would like to establish a run game to neutralize the pass rushers in Denver, but that’s easier said than done for a defense that is allowing a stingy 3.8 yards per carry. When you average Etienne’s yards against the top six rush opponents he’s faced, he’s averaging just over 40 yards per carry. Etienne is a cerebral runner who can break big runs, but that’s unlikely to happen against the Broncos unit. His yardage total Sunday is just slightly below his season average, but in this matchup it’s asking a lot for him to really get things going. We’ll go against him.

Trevor Lawrence – Over 19.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If Travis Etienne isn’t going to run the ball effectively against the Broncos, where will the yardage come from? Well, it’s not realistic to expect quarterback Trevor Lawrence to pick up all of the slack there, however, getting to 20 is absolutely do-able, and we think he has a very high percentage chance to get over that mark. Lawrence has done this in six games this year, and gone over 18 in nine games. It’s really about the opponents though, and how he’s adapted over the last eight weeks of the season. In the first five weeks of the season, Lawrence had less than 10 yards rushing in four of those games. In the last eight, that’s only happened once. With pressure always likely from the Broncos, and coverage in the secondary, Lawrence will really need to try to move the chains with his legs.

Shedeur Sanders – Under 179.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The quarterback position for the remainder of the season is belongs to Shedeur Sanders, and he and the Browns find themselves a double-digit underdog at home against the Bills in week sixteen. Sanders has had a typical rookie start to his career, with some really good things, and some really bad things. Sanders struggled a week ago, as the Chicago Bears had him confused and frustrated in the worst start of his career. It won’t get easier for Sanders against the Bills, who are one of the top pass defenses in the league. Part of this is because they’re so poor against the run, but that’s also by design. Buffalo plays a true run funnel defense, daring teams to throw on them. When they’re in pass defense, they run as complex of a coverage system as any team in the league, which has proven to really perplex rookie quarterbacks. Sanders also enters the matchup a little undermanned as he’ll be without three starting offensive linemen, and tight end David Njoku. The Bills defense meanwhile, is about as healthy as they’ve been in a quite a while. Combine that with their offensive approach of focusing on the ground game, and it’s asking a lot for Sanders to light it up in the cold of Cleveland in December. We’ll fade the rookie here.

Derrick Henry – Under 81.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Derrick Henry has been heating up in the second half of the season and we’re going against the future Hall of Famer anyhow. There was some chatter between weeks 2-6 that Henry might be on his last legs as he was averaging around 30 yards per game on the ground. His production has bounced back, and he’s currently 5th in rushing yards heading down the stretch and nearing five yards per carry. So why are we fading him in their primetime battle with the New England Patriots? It’s pretty simple, it’s all about the opponent. The Patriots have been strong defending the run all season. The resurgence of Henry actually coincides with his recent opponents. He’s feasted against six of the worst run defenses in the league over the last eight games. Lamar Jackson is finally looking healthier and able to command the offense the way Baltimore would like. That means they don’t have to necessarily lean on Henry. We say it every time we fade a star player, we could not only lose this wager, we could get embarrassed with it. We’re willing to take that risk here though, as this seems like the type of matchup where Henry ends up more in the 60-70 yard range.

Tetairoa McMillan – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Rookies tend to do the opposite of what Derrick Henry did, which is start off fast, and hit a wall in the second half of the season. We’ve seen a bit of that from Tetairoa McMillan as he’s been pretty quiet the last few weeks. Why should we expect him to succeed on Sunday? In a common theme for the weekend, it’s really all about the opponent. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been atrocious at stopping wide receivers all season long. They normally play a defense that is based upon stopping the run, and the fact that they’re also struggling there, only makes defending the pass even tougher for their unit. As the season has progressed, quarterback Bryce Young has done a nice job working in other players on the offense. That makes it a little tougher for defenses to completely focus on McMillan as the wide receiver one. This game between NFC South foes has one of the higher point totals of the weekend so we’re expecting some offense. The Bucs figure to put some points up on their side of the ball, so the Panthers will have to throw a bit, even though they want establish the ground game. We’re going against the trends here and trying to read the tea leaves a little bit. Let’s see how we do.

Bijan Robinson – Over 132.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

The Falcons and Cardinals are playing for pride when they meet on Sunday with both teams operating with backup quarterbacks. Despite that news, there should be plenty of offense as both Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett have been leading quality offense in their relief duties. Cousins has a cheat code with running Bijan Robinson, who is just racking up yards at almost inhuman pace. Robinson is one of the easiest breakdowns to write about, as he’s simply the motor that makes this offense go. He runs so smoothly, and is always a huge threat in the passing game. Over the last month of the season, both of these defenses have really struggled. This game should have plenty of offense in the warm confines of the dome. This number is exactly right at his season average, with a very favorable matchup. Seems like a good time to try to bet on the superstar.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 37.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

It’s no secret if you’ve followed the 49ers or Christian McCaffrey this season that he’s been more effective as a receiver than a runner. We fully expect that to continue against the Colts, who have been one of the stingiest rush defenses in the league. The Niners will always look to get the ball into McCaffrey’s hands, and if they aren’t having success running it, they’ll try to get him in space as a receiver. The Colts will be welcoming back Pro Bowl defensive tackle, and former 49er DeForest Buckner, strengthening that already sound rush defense. The 49ers meanwhile, will be without Ricky Pearsall again, taking away one of their top receiving weapons. McCaffrey was racking up receiving yards up until the previous two ballgames. Those were pretty large wins against the hapless Browns and the Titans however, where McCaffrey wasn’t needed quite as much. This is a big game for two teams jockeying for the playoffs and seedings, so McCaffrey should be more involved in the offensive scheme. Activate receiving McCaffrey with this bet.

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