PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4

SEASON RESULTS:
29-20

Week 7 Recap:

A week that ended up being pretty unproductive with four covers and four losses, amounting in a slight deficit for the weekend. A little frustrating as the players we backed played well, but didn’t get to their totals. It started with the London contest where we were backing Davante Adams. The star was productive with a pair of touchdowns, and led the team in targets, however he didn’t get to his yardage total. (He did draw two huge pass interference penalties – good for the Rams, not for a prop bet). The exact same thing happened in our loss with Browns running back Quinshon Judkins. He finished 7 yards shy of his total, not due to a bad read on his performance as he also punched in three touchdowns. The problem here is as the Browns ran away with this game, they simply went to a committee approach, not needing Judkins much in the 4th quarter. Our other loss was fading Devon Achane, as an early 46 yard scamper allowed him to squeak by his yardage total despite the Dolphins offense being essentially inept all day. We got a nice win with Jonathan Taylor as he continued his assault on the league, and with Jordan Addison as he topped 100 yards on the day. We also scored with Van Jefferson as we suggested, someone had to catch a few passes for the Titans. And lastly, a split with our two wagers involving Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart. He crushed us with his passing yardage, but wasn’t able to get anything going on the ground. A lot of wagers for a lotta nothing, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.

Week 8 Preview:

A little smaller card for week 8 as the bye weeks have thinned out some opportunities across the league. We’re fading a struggling quarterback, and backing three productive running backs, one of whom is a repeat play from a week ago. Just four selected plays, which can hopefully bring us a small slice of profit when it’s all said and done.

Our Picks:

Bijan Robinson – Over 131.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

The first half of the season numbers that Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is putting up are downright video game-esque.  Robinson is on pace to have a top five scrimmage yardage season of all-time.  In an offense that has some talent, he’s the clear alpha the playbook runs through, and why not?  He’s mix of speed, agility, vision and power are freakish, and he’s been chopping up defenses way stronger than the Miami Dolphins.  Miami struggles against the run and the defending backs out of the backfield, which means plenty of opportunity for Robinson to thrive again.  Much like Jonathan Taylor (you’ll see below), this game feels as though only game script, and an abundance of touches for his backup running mates could keep Robinson from another 150+ yard outing.  This total is ridiculously high, but when you look at the matchup, and what Robinson has been averaging, it’s probably too low.  He’ll stay step for step with Taylor in the OPOY conversations as the Dolphins slide one game closer to a new regime.

Tua Tagovailoa – Under 199.5 Yards Passing (-115)

If you caught our weekly picks post on X, you’ll notice we’re pretty heavy into the Falcons this weekend.  Not necessarily because Atlanta is some unstoppable force, but they can be a matchup nightmare for certain teams.  That’s the case on both sides of the ball for the Miami Dolphins as their nightmare season is likely to continue on Sunday in the ATL.  The Falcons are one of the top teams at pressuring the quarterback, and are allowing a league low in passing yards through the first seven weeks of the season.  In fact, they have not allowed a single passer to throw for over 200 yards yet on the year.  Tua Tagovailoa is not poised to become the first to do so, as he’ll be facing the Falcons with one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines in the league.  Not only that, in addition to the Tyreek Hill season-ending injury, the Dolphins will also be without tight end Darren Waller who had provided a small spark and additional passing option behind Jaylen Waddle.  Even if the Dolphins are down big, which is to be expected, it’s not realistic to see them finding enough firepower for Tua to be the first QB to break this mark on the season.  Big Falcons backers this week, even bigger Dolphins faders.

Jonathan Taylor – Over 101.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you haven’t hopped aboard the Indianapolis Colts bandwagon yet, it’s still not too late.  Maybe it’s just us, but there really seems to be a “yeah but” sentiment with this team.  When your quarterback is Daniel Jones it kind of makes sense, but this team is absolutely the real deal.  And the most real deal player on their roster is running back Jonathan Taylor.  The league’s leading rusher takes aim at the hapless Tennessee Titans in a divisional battle that sees the Colts as greater than two touchdown favorites.  Not only are the Titans really bad on both sides of the ball, they’ll be without their top player as star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is banged up.  Taylor should find plenty of room to operate early and often.  The biggest obstacle in getting this over would seem to be if the Titans strike too fast and too early, leading to a short day for Taylor.  While that’s certainly a game script possibility that could work against us here, a 100 yard rushing day against this Titans team is simply too juicy to pass up.

J.K. Dobbins – Over 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Points are expected in Denver when the Broncos host the Dallas Cowboys, fresh off of their 33 point 4th quarter and improbable comeback a week ago.  It’s no secret the Cowboys have struggled defensively as most of us have grown familiar with seeing their secondary torched on a pretty regular basis.  The Cowboys defense offers equal opportunity when it comes to where they’re going to get gashed, as they also rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive rush metrics.  Enter one of the league’s quieter success stories for the year, in oft-injured J.K. Dobbins as the feature back for Denver.  Perhaps because Dobbins doesn’t put up monstrous efforts each week (he has just one game over 100 yards – 101, actually), he’s a little under the radar.  But Dobbins has consistently been one of the top backs this year averaging over 5 yards per tote and eclipsing 76 yards in five of the last six games.  There will undoubtedly be plenty of passing in this contest, but look for Sean Payton to try to keep the ground game going with a commitment to 15 or more carries for Dobbins.  That should be enough against the Dallas defense to propel him over this yardage mark.

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