Last year’s NL East race turned into a runaway when the New York Mets hit their well documented second half collapse. Philadelphia’s half-game lead at the All-Star Break steadily grew as the Metropolitans ultimately yielded their wild card berth to the Cincinnati Reds, possibly sparing themselves from a postseason defeat at the hands of the Dodgers. Miami looks to ride some momentum with their breakout players of 2025, unlike the Braves and Nationals who want nothing more than to put the lost season behind them and find greener pastures. Will the competition in the 2026 NL East heat back up from a refreshed Braves club and revamped Mets roster?
The 2026 MLB season ushers in The BetCrushers’ 7th Annual Division Preview series. We look for value in the futures markets in this labor of love, especially regular season win totals. We appreciate all of our faithful and new readers! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)
2025 Division Champion: Philadelphia Phillies
2025 NL East Standings
- Philadelphia Phillies (96-66)
- New York Mets (83-79)
- Miami Marlins (79-83)
- Atlanta Braves (76-86)
- Washington Nationals (66-96)
Philadelphia Phillies 2026 Win Total: Open 92.5, Now 90.5
2025 Result: Over 91.5 (96-66 / Pythag: 94)
Back-to-back NL East titles leading to early outs in the postseason. That’s not the way you want to go down after 95- and 96-win seasons with the horses Philadelphia had in their lineup and rotation. Manager Rob Thomson had his hands full with Max Kepler, Nick Castellanos, and Matt Strahm stepping out of line while high-leverage reliever Jose Alvarado missed half the season on a PED suspension. And Bryce Harper’s wrist turned out to be a major thorn in the lineup’s side. Change is good with that much stirring in the background. Fortunately, slugger Kyle Schwarber and catcher JT Realmuto were pulled back in from free agency, avoiding the kind of change that isn’t so good.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- B Keller (RP-R)
- A Garcia (OF)
- J Bowlan (RP-R)
- Z Pop (RP-R)
- C Shugart (RP-R)
Subtractions:
- R Suarez (SP-L)
- H Bader (OF)
- N Castellanos (OF)
- M Kepler (OF)
- M Strahm (RP-L)
- J Ross (RP-R)
- J Romano (RP-R)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 82 – 95
— Position Players —
As stacked as the Phillies lineup was last season, run production lagged most all other metrics. All three slash line components (.258/.328/.431) ranked 4th or better. Their park-adjusted 109 wRC+, base running grades, and overall 26.9 WAR value finished in the top seven. Yet the Phils produced just the 8th most runs (778) in the MLB behind four other National League foes. In comparison, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs were much more efficient scoring via the long ball. In full disclosure, we expected a 4-6% offensive decline between 2024 and 2025 seasons – a far cry from the modest 1% uptick.
To be fair, the lineup’s lowest points coincided with Bryce Harper’s three week IL stint. Right wrist inflammation plagued the 33-year-old superstar first baseman throughout the year, limiting him to 580 PAs. Harper continued to hit the ball hard but his .261/.357/.487 line was the lowest since joining the Phillies in 2019. And while a few percentage points of additional production are in store, most of Bryce’s incremental value for the season ahead comes from staying on the field more.
Building From Their Strengths
One theory for Bryce Harper’s recent production drop is the lack of protection behind him in the lineup. Without a new intimidating hitter to hit cleanup, this role belongs to Alec Bohm for the most part. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber are natural fits at the top with Harper looming behind them. Both hit as well as ever in Phillies uniforms last year, plus Turner stole 36 bases to go with his .304/.355/.457 line. Schwarber’s career-high 56 home runs were enabled in part by a career-high 724 PAs. That’s nearly 4.5 PAs per game for one of the most destructive hitters in the game. Expect Kyle’s numbers more like 2024’s 135 wRC+; a drop around 20%. Turner’s regression projects to be less steep though. Just keep in mind the Harper-Turner-Schwarber trio are or will be 33 years old during this season. Father Time often has his say in the matter.
Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm continued to hold down second and third base, respectively. Granted, Bohm missed time due to a rib fracture then shoulder inflammation en route to a 105 wRC+ that jibes with the baseline he’s established for a few years now. The disciplined hitter again projects into a plus 5-10% range with pretty decent defense these days. Stott also has a good eye at the plate and adds some action to the base paths, sacrificing power for speed. Recent divisive splits can be mitigated by infield super substitute Edmundo Sosa’s strong tendencies against left-handed pitching.
Refreshing the Lineup
If there is any particular unit that needs a shot in the arm, look no further than their outfield personnel. This is pretty easy to say after ranking bottom third in offense, defense, and overall value (3.2 WAR). Second half rental Harrison Bader was stout in limited action, slashing .306/.360/.468 while effectively holding down center field. On the flip side, Max Kepler is out after a disappointing 90 wRC+ contribution that PEDs seemingly did not elevate to playability. Nick Castellanos shared a similar fate and was released on the front end of Spring Training. It won’t take a career season for former Ranger Adolis Garcia to improve on Castellanos’ defense in right field, keeping the club from being a major defensive liability like in seasons past.
As for Garcia’s bat, well, that may be more of a one-for-one exchange. Texas non-tendered the 32-year-old Garcia after a five-season tenure that peaked in 2023. His calling card is smashing the ball and decent base running. Attempts to revamp his swing mechanics ran into a couple minor injuries that leave questions for Adolis’ next chapter in Philadelphia. Modest offensive projections for 2026 make him no worse than Castellanos though.
Dombrowski withheld 22-year-old outfield prospect Justin Crawford from a 2025 MLB debut despite an impressive .334/.411/.452 slash line at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The plan is to promote the speedy left-handed hitter who stole 46 bases in the Minors last year. This seemingly gives Crawford primary reps in center field to further his development and add a young spark to the Philly lineup. Whether he will need a short-side platoon partner has yet to be determined, especially after hitting southpaws effectively last year. Is his glove cut out for this premium defensive position? Will his speed make up for any shortcomings at the plate as a pure rookie? We hope to get a sneak peek of those answers in Spring Training.
It does not look like top prospect Aidan Miller will be in good enough form to make a similar impact in 2026. He and Crawford are essentially the extent of exciting position player talent in the pipeline. Undrafted 26-year-old Otto Kemp made his MLB debut in June and helped cover first base while Bryce Harper was on the IL. Ugly work at third base might keep him off of the hot corner though he still may be a useful bat against lefties. The glaring issue with Kemp is a hefty strikeout rate well known from his days in the Minors.
Keeping Leakage To a Minimum
Unfortunately, Philadelphia’s catchers landed in the bottom half again. Even though JT Realmuto’s power numbers slipped in his age-34 season, the veteran was fine behind the plate. The issue underlying this position group was the lack of a quality backup once again. Garrett Stubbs passed the torch as their lackluster #2 to Rafael Marchan last season. As the 26-year-old’s workload increased, his slash line cratered to .210/.282/.305 no thanks to an ugly .230 BABIP. Marchan does not hit the ball hard and cannot be relied upon to be that league-average hitter with decent defense. Fortunately, JT’s outlook is no worse than 2025’s production at the plate. Whether he delivers his customary 500+ plate appearances might be the more appropriate question.
The bar for Philadelphia’s outfield is relatively low considering its low rank in last year’s pecking order. Brandon Marsh is still a valuable hitter against righties who is better suited in left field than center. Look at 2025 as the unit’s floor with upside from Justin Crawford’s fresh legs and/or a decent bounceback by Adolis Garcia. Losing some steam from Kyle Schwarber’s and Trea Turner’s tremendous seasons is inevitable. We were wrong last offseason about Philly’s offensive regression and here we are again calling for a 4-6% drop.
— Rotation —
With the standard caveat of avoiding major injuries, we drank the Kool-Aid on a Phillies’ rotation bump last winter. And did their starting pitchers ever deliver. Just look at their overall WAR value increasing by 5.5 wins to 21.5 – the MLB’s best, by far. What’s behind that single number? A host of league-leading attributes including:
- 929.2 IP
- 21.5 WAR
- 3.40 FIP
- 3.42 xFIP
- 25.3% K
- 6.4% BB
To visualize how good this rotation was last season compared to the 29 other teams, look at the WAR bar chart below. Cincinnati was the runner up at 16.1 WAR; a massive shortfall of 5.4 behind Philly’s monstrous valuation. Delivering 41.2 more innings than the 2nd highest amount by Cleveland and having the 2nd highest ERA (3.53) behind Texas created a killer combination for opposing lineups to reckon with.
PHI Primary Starting Pitcher Performance (2025)
| ST/IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Sanchez (L) | 32/202.0 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 2.50 | 2.55/2.77 | 6.4 |
| J Luzardo (L) | 32/183.2 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 3.92 | 2.90/3.25 | 5.3 |
| Z Wheeler (R) | 24/149.2 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 2.71 | 3.00/2.73 | 4.0 |
| R Suarez (L) | 26/157.1 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.20 | 3.21/3.61 | 4.0 |
| A Nola (R) | 17/94.1 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 6.01 | 4.58/3.71 | 0.9 |
Southpaw Cristopher Sanchez led this group by taking the cliched next step from his brilliant breakout campaign. To say the odds were against him to jump up the ranks like that, I mean his 31 starts, 181.2 IP, and 3.32 ERA in 2024 were damn good to begin with. The road to shattering those numbers included a full complement of 32 starts and tacking on 21.1 more innings, lengthening his average start by nearly a half-inning. Strikeouts popped by 6% with more whiffs, all while producing a ton of ground balls. Furthermore, Sanchez yielded 4+ runs in only 4 of those 32 starts.
Jesus Luzardo also made all 32 starts for the second time in his career. This is exactly what the Phillies were looking for when buying low on his down 2024 season. Veteran leader Zack Wheeler was dominant yet again; however, thoracic outlet syndrome knocked him out in August. That’s a scary diagnosis, especially for a 35-year-old. But Wheeler’s outlook is becoming increasingly positive in terms of not missing many starts as rehab progresses. Minimizing lost time without jeopardizing his long term outlook still means Wheeler will not hit the 32-start mark he’s reached in three of six seasons in Philadelphia.
Getting Zack Wheeler back sooner than later helps offset the loss of Ranger Suarez to free agency. These two pitchers each graded out at 4.0 WAR and accounted for 50 combined starts. Ranger’s absence also puts an emphasis on workhorse Aaron Nola rebounding back into form. An ankle injury that escalated into a rib injury limited him to his lowest starts and innings total since debuting in 2015 (2020 aside). To put it in perspective, Nola has made 32+ starts each 162-game season starting with the 2018 campaign. 2025 was certainly a season to forget.
Is There More in the Tank?
Wheeler projects in the low 3.00s as another year of work is tacked onto his right arm. Nola gets the benefit of the doubt as an innings eater with effectiveness around the 4.00 mark. Plus Sanchez is still young enough to retain most of his arsenal’s value and to expect a full workload out of, as is Luzardo to a lesser extent. Having Jesus’ filthy slider is worth putting up with the occasional implosion that marred his season-long ERA. This is a very formidable front four once Zack Wheeler returns to action.
In the meantime, Philly has two main options to fill out the rotation. Veteran Taijuan Walker is a known quantity who gives you 4+ innings as a starter and multiple innings out of the bullpen, albeit at a 4.00+ level with nominal pitch quality. That’s all well and good but this team truly needs prospect Andrew Painter to make a splash in his forthcoming MLB debut. Tommy John rehab cost him two full seasons of development before returning to action in Triple-A. The 22-year-old did not necessarily dominate there due to location issues and giving up the long ball. Painter is a very talented pitcher with a broad arsenal who should drop us some hints in Spring Training as to how good his stuff looks. Until then, signposts for his rookie season are projections ranging from the mid to upper 4.00s.
A healthy Aaron Nola is essentially critical to keeping the 2026 rotation on track. With Zack Wheeler’s delayed arrival and uncertainty with the young Andrew Painter, Philadelphia must backfill Ranger Suarez’ 26 starts and hold things down while Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo potentially face regression headwinds. One less pillar weakens the group’s stability, leading to a several win markdown of the 2026 rotation’s value.
— Bullpen —
Relief pitching was fine through the lens of 47 saves at a 64.4% conversion rate and a 33-22 record. In the midst of those results, the Philly bullpen turned in a modest 82 holds no thanks to a 4.27 ERA and 4.26 FIP/4.20 xFIP that have steadily climbed since its more dominant 2023 & 2024 seasons. However, personnel shakeups dating back to the trade deadline have really helped to turn around the outlook for the 2026 bullpen.
The 2025 group left some meat on the bone, especially considering it was the least-worked group in the Majors. Jordan Romano was intended to be a high-leverage piece by rebounding from his moving on from Toronto. Instead, Romano was shaky out of the gates giving up multiple runs in three of his first five appearances. This was especially painful when Jose Alvarado was lost to a PED suspension spanning mid-May to mid-August. Romano never truly regained the confidence of Rob Thomson and finished the season with a 8.23 ERA as Alvarado continued 2024’s downtick with a 3.81 ERA. Are better results in store for their flame throwing left-handed setup man?
Back and Better Than Ever?
Let’s start with the obvious. Philly now has one of the most intimidating closers in the game. Dave Dombrowski pulled some strings last summer to obtain vaunted closer Jhoan Duran from the Twins. The 28-year-old righty has 100+ mph heat and elite secondaries including a dangerous new knuckle curve. And the cherry on top is two years of team control that should keep him in Philadelphia through 2027. Duran has been durable in four years of MLB action, posting an ERA north of 2.50 just once in his career. Elite stuff, plenty of swing-and-miss, and 60%+ ground balls keep most of his projections in the sub-3.00 bucket. It’s tough to imagine a better anchor for this bullpen to rebound with.
The 2026 group checks a lot of the boxes associated with being a top five unit. Lefty Matt Strahm is out after some clubhouse tension and a team leading 1.5 WAR as a reliever. In his place as setup man #2 is the reinvented Brad Keller. The longtime Royal lost his spot in the rotation several years ago before catching a lot of eyes in a superb rebound season with the Cubs. Most projects are skeptical of backing up last year’s 2.07 ERA due in part to a very low .243 BABIP. But if Keller’s new approach out of the bullpen truly supports 2025’s massive strikeout rate bump, he could end up as a valuable 3.00 workhorse.
The Phillies have the luxury of a quality middle relief group if Alvarado finds his groove and Brad Keller isn’t a bust. 24-year-old Orion Kerkering decently managed a more prominent role in 2025, though Rob Thomson found out the hard way that he wasn’t quite up to the task of closing out games. Home run regression plus losing his edge on both strikeout and walk rates leaves some questions for the year ahead though. Left-hander Tanner Banks wasn’t the best 9th inning guy either but joins Kerkering as sub-4.00, 60+ inning regulars. Jonathan Bowlan also falls into this group except he doesn’t have as robust of a track record putting up serious innings in a Major League season. We expect a much improved bullpen that may need to absorb additional innings compared to recent years.
New York Mets 2026 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 89.5
2025 Result: Under 91.5 (83-79 / Pythag: 86)
To be fair, the Mets’ September collapse was not quite on the level of the Detroit Tigers’. But the ramifications were arguably worse as the Tigers advanced to the ALDS while the Mets yielded their playoff spot down the stretch. Then front office head David Stearns let Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz walk in free agency. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil were soon traded, leading the fanbase to wonder which of their beloved players would be next to leave Queens. Never fear as Stearns landed Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert Jr., Devin Williams, and Luke Weaver. This leaves the question whether the 2026 squad is built to withstand the 162-game grind better. The market seems to think so with odds to win the division right in the thick of things with Philadelphia and Atlanta.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- B Bichette (SS)
- F Peralta (SP-R)
- M Semien (2B)
- L Robert Jr (CF)
- J Polanco (INF)
- T Myers (RHP)
- D Williams (RP-R)
- L Weaver (RP-R)
- MJ Melendez (OF)
Subtractions:
- P Alonso (1B)
- E Diaz (RP-R)
- B Nimmo (OF)
- J McNeil (2B/OF)
- C Mullins (OF)
- T Rogers (RP-R)
- G Canning (SP-R)
- G Soto (RP-L)
- S Marte (OF)
- L Acuna (INF)
- R Helsley (RP-R)
- R Stanek (RP-R)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 77 – 95
— Position Players —
In many respects, the Mets offense had top five characteristics but the results were less robust. The disconnect: New York scored the 10th most runs in the MLB. They excelled in plate discipline, base running, and launching the long ball. Let by elite batsman Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor joined him with 30+ home runs. Soto and Lindor also swiped 30+ bags as part of the team’s 5th most stolen bases (147) at an eye-popping 89.0% success rate.
Offseason roster changes bid farewell to four of New York’s eight above-average hitters in exchange for new blood that will certainly shake things up. Pete Alonso gambled on a one-year contract last winter that paid off in spades, landing him a 5-year/$155M deal in Baltimore. The first baseman hit the ball harder than ever with wild reverse splits that flipped the team’s bias toward right-handed pitching. Veteran infielder Jorge Polanco has the inside track to fill the Polar Bear’s spot at first base with DH candidates Mark Vientos and Brett Baty in support. This approach won’t completely fill Alonso’s shoes but it does stop the bleeding.
Load Up the Infield With Veterans
As Jeff McNeil entered his 30s, his role drifted from regular second baseman to utility player. Now he’s with the Athletics, a former team of new second baseman Marcus Semien. A broken left foot cut short his age-34 season and interrupted an impressive six straight seasons of 700+ plate appearances (2020 aside). Semien is the ironman the Mets need to hold down second base with elite defense. An average bat would actually upgrade the position group that was 9% below average. He and Francisco Lindor will carry forward the Mets’ traditionally stellar middle infield defense. That said, Lindor is one of several MLB players hit by the recent hamate injury “outbreak” and won’t begin his season on time.
On the topic of defense comes polarizing infielder Bo Bichette. The 28-year-old’s bat is far from debatable, garnering plus 15-20% projections as a hard-hitting, high-BABIP lineup piece. Thankfully, Frankie Lindor has shortstop nailed down so Bichette can try his hand at third base for the first time in live MLB action. This is a position where strong fielding from Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio was balanced out by Mark Vientos’ rough performance – which, in turn, has pigeon holed him into DH and first base duties. Although Bichette’s defensive escapades at the hot corner have yet to play out, his bat easily upgrades 2025’s average-hitting group.
Roll the Dice In the Outfield
Banking on Juan Soto is anything but a gamble. His defense leaves much to be desired, I’ll give you that. But when it comes to the 27-year-old’s bat, nobody in their right mind is going to argue against the immense value he brings to a lineup. Soto found that sweet spot of hard contact and launch angle over the past two seasons, blasting 18%+ barrel rates and 40+ home runs in each. No need to belabor the point…Juan Soto has a +60% bat by virtue of elite plate discipline and immense bat skills. Look for another 6-WAR season from the right fielder.
Here’s where things get really interesting. Tyrone Taylor takes a back seat role in center field as Luis Robert Jr. enters the fold. Both are strong defenders at this critical position, portending an improvement over Taylor’s former supporting cast. Plus Robert ups the ante on the position’s offense even as an under performer the last couple seasons. Taylor and Robert project anywhere from a sub-20% to a sub-10% tandem, an improvement over 2025’s sub-30% output. Some cynically speculate that Robert’s change of scenery could increase his availability – a key talking point of the 28-year-old’s Chicago tenure.
A healthy Luis Robert Jr. could also free up Tyrone Taylor for more right field work. Juan Soto heads back to left field which may or may not matter defensively. Taylor doesn’t have the kind of bat to replace Brandon Nimmo at the plate (114 wRC+), though prospect Carson Benge may. The 23-year-old climbed the Minor League ladder in 2025 and has a chance to make the Opening Day roster. Expect some combination of Taylor, Brett Baty, and – if all goes well – Benge in right this season. Unless somebody takes a huge step forward, this group likely slips 10-20% from Nimmo’s offense.
Business As Usual?
A key carryover from last year comes from behind the plate via Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens. The bat-first 24-year-old Alvarez slashed .256/.339/.447 while battling through a thumb injury. He and excellent defender Torrens formed a top ten catcher group that should repeat as a 3-4 WAR duo. Alvarez loses some potency over a 110+ game season, though avoiding a prolonged absence still nets this position several percentage points at the plate. That takes a little bit of steam out of their defensive numbers but the team as a whole should hold their ground in the field this season.
Despite all of the aforementioned personnel changes, the net effect to the position player corps should be subtle. The Mets are still a good running team even if Juan Soto doesn’t swipe 30+ bags this season. Don’t get me wrong, there are questions in the outfield aside from Soto and new faces at the infield corners may require an acclimation period fresh out of Spring Training. My adjustments to New York’s lineup as a whole are minor other than rebalancing handedness splits. Expect a top-tier group once again.
— Rotation —
I suppose if fingers are to be pointed for last year’s disappointing result, you have to look towards the rotation first. The entire starting pitcher group dropped nearly 100 innings from the prior year total and gained close to one-quarter run to its ERA. Innings pitched (796.0), walk rate (9.4%), and K/BB rate (2.36) all ranked bottom five. Most of this comes back to not having three 170+ inning guys with sub-4.00 ERAs leading the way like in 2024. Luis Severino and Jose Quintana went elsewhere last winter; Sean Manaea was held to just 60.2 innings while battling injuries.
Injuries are a substantial part of the rotation’s backstory. After missing all but one start in 2024 due to shoulder issues, Kodai Senga made 22 starts bookending a month-long IL stint for a hamstring strain. Before the injury: 13 starts, 1.47 ERA, 3.24 FIP/4.17 xFIP. Upon return: 10 starts, 5.16
ERA, 5.27 FIP/4.48 xFIP. Diminished strikeout capability could relegate Senga to a relief role if upward pressure from New York’s prospects pushes him out. Sean Manaea’s fate shares similarities with Kodai’s given recent elbow issues and having just turned 34.
It is easy to forget that Griffin Canning had a good thing going before blowing out his Achilles’ tendon. Similarly, Tylor Megill experienced a solid start to the season before an elbow injury ultimately sidelined him for the remainder. Setbacks during rehab turned into Tommy John surgery, knocking Megill out for the 2026 season as well. Things like this remind you just how important pitching depth is for a contending team.
Going For Broke
David Stearns surely recognized this and dialed up his former club to juice up the rotation this winter. Former Brewers’ ace Freddy Peralta increases the rotation’s stability as a formidable anchor with 30+ starts in each of the last three seasons. The Mets get the reliability of a sub-4.00 veteran with a career 3.20 K/BB ratio. Peralta hits his spots with three plus pitches, stifling hard contact and generating plenty of whiffs. Acquiring Freddy comes at the hefty cost of two key prospects, pitcher Brandon Sproat and shortstop Jett Williams. Regardless, manager Carlos Mendoza has a clear #1 atop his 2026 rotation.
Behind Peralta is left-hander David Peterson, who enters his seventh year in the Mets rotation. The 30-year-old finally chocked up a full season (30 starts, 168.2 IP) with decent results. Home runs are less impactful the last couple years by virtue of gravitating towards ground ball contact with 4.00 effectiveness. Converted closer Clay Holmes’ transition went well enough to generate similar expectations as Peterson. Tons of ground balls, 4.00 stuff, and 5.5 innings per start make him a solid mid-rotation staple. Neither have mind-blowing stuff or superb command but can easily contribute 2+ WAR when healthy.
Bursting At the Seams
The Mets’ cupboards are far from bare, even after letting go of prospect Brandon Sproat in the Freddy Peralta trade. Their former #1 prospect Nolan McLean graduated in August with 48.0 innings over 8 starts. His projections are justifiably skeptical of the small-sample 30.3% strikeout rate and 2.06 ERA though. McLean has a dynamic, broad arsenal punctuated by a filthy slider and curve. Stretch the 24-year-old righty out to 25 starts and shrink his K rate down to around 23%…and voila, you get a sub-4.00 ground baller in line for 25+ starts. Not a bad ask for a starting pitcher who isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2029.
22-year-old Jonah Tong’s debut was a bit rougher (18.2 IP, 7.71 ERA) than his peers. Trading for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers takes the pressure off of rushing him back into the fray though. Plus 2024 top prospect Christian Scott returns from Tommy John/internal brace surgery that sidelined him all of last season. Carlos Mendoza will get a good look at him in Spring Training before stashing him in the Minors until ready. Former indy baller Jonathan Pintaro is making his way through the system and is seen as an under-the-radar option in the stables.
Adding a legitimate anchor to the rotation was essential to stabilize this group. That’s an understatement given the injury risk that Peterson, Manaea, and Senga pose to the overall innings count. Rough accounting shows the healthy top four of Peralta, McLean, Peterson, and Holmes adds another win of value on top of the 2025 rotation’s output. Otherwise, the Mets’ stable of young pitchers will establish a floor not much worse than last year’s. The most likely outcome is another light innings total sapping the rotation’s improved results, leading to reduced WAR gains.
— Bullpen —
Rare was the dull moment when closer Edwin Diaz took the mound for the Mets. The highs were high and the lows weren’t all that common. In the six seasons surrounding a 2023 lost to a fluke knee injury, Diaz nailed down 144 of 173 save opportunities. Those days were deemed officially over once the 31-year-old reliever signed a 3-year deal with the Dodgers. He went out with a bang, saving 28 of 31 opportunities across his largest inning total (66.1) since 2018.
The bullpen needed all of those innings out of Edwin. As you’d suspect with a rotation that didn’t cover a lot of territory, the relievers picked up a ton of slack. Diaz and Reed Garrett were the only relievers on the Mets roster for a full season with strikeout rates above 25%. That sunk the 2025 bullpen’s K rate from a league-leading 27.7% down to a pedestrian 22.8%. It wasn’t all negative though; they also slashed walks by 2.2%.
Moving On
Strip away Edwin Diaz’ 28 of 31 converted saves and you’re left with the rest of the bunch converting 12 of the other 36 opportunities. Following in the footsteps of Juan Soto from the Bronx to Queens comes bullpen reinforcements Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. These veteran free agents effectively reboot the high-leverage group after losing Reed Garrett to Tommy John surgery. They are anything but sure things though. Williams was more hittable last season and isn’t a lock for a sub-3.00 season at this point. But his stuff is still filthy and could keep the back end of the 2026 bullpen in good shape. Weaver was a bit more human after his 2.89 ERA Yankees debut and faces the growing threat of a BABIP crack back.
AJ Minter should return on the early side of the season, joining Brooks Raley as the pen’s primary lefties. Both deal sub-4.00 stuff and were super effective in the not so distant past. Luis Garcia, Huascar Brazoban, and company fall a tier below. Nothing wrong with Tobias Myers as a long man who can spot start or bail out a short-lived starter. This is a decent group with questions yet to be answered by Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to determine if the 2026 bullpen takes a step forward without Edwin Diaz.
Miami Marlins 2026 Win Total: Open 76.5, Now 73.5
2025 Result: Over 62.5 (79-83 / Pythag: 72)
Expectations were quite low heading into the 2025 season with an iffy roster and rookie manager. The market’s 62.5 win total spoke volumes but the Marlins were even louder, crossing that threshold on August 28th. Then they went on a run to finish the campaign at four games below .500 and third place in the division. Getting outscored by 89 runs alludes to smoke and mirrors to which their 2026 outlook has taken into account. Miami’s position player group is back and the rotation experienced a couple losses, making the upcoming season one where they could surprise a lot of folks or get buried in the NL East.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- P Fairbanks (RP-R)
- C Paddack (SP-R)
- C Morel (OF)
- O Cassie (OF)
- E Ruiz (OF)
- J King (RP-L)
Subtractions:
- E Cabrera (SP-R)
- R Weathers (SP-L)
- D Myers (OF)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 68 – 72
— Rotation —
Aside from the bullpen, there were enough legitimate areas of improvement on deck for the 2025 season. That’s because most 61-win teams have no shortage of elements at or near rock bottom. Miami’s rotation is a good example. It went from a 5.24 ERA in 2024 that was only better than Colorado to a 4.84 ERA while picking up 27.0 more innings. That ERA ranked 26th in the MLB. Underneath that number, however, are a more respectable 4.25 FIP/4.24 xFIP and 2.83 K/BB ratio to grow on.
The Marlins said goodbye to starting pitcher Trevor Rogers at the 2024 trade deadline, then watched him put up a stingy 1.81 ERA in a shortened 2025. No regrets though, as Rogers should face headwinds from the accompanying.226 BABIP. Plus one of the two players returned in that trade is Kyle Stowers, who stood out among the Marlins position players. Fellow midseason departure Cal Quantrill was waived in August after struggling to a 5.50 ERA in 24 starts. This offseason’s losses are headlined by 27-year-old right-hander Edward Cabrera who was exchanged for Cubs outfielder Owen Cassie. Cabrera led the rotation with a 3.53 ERA and 2.0 WAR across the team’s second most 137.2 IP. Miami also loses the often-injured lefty Ryan Weathers, though his contributions were limited to just 125.0 innings over the past two seasons.
Navigating the Injured List
After missing all of the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, 22-year-old Eury Perez returned with a promising 20 starts. Fastball velocity remained top tier and the slider – his main secondary – graded out exceptionally. The tradeoff with Eury is command, plus he was hit fairly hard. Adjusting for last season’s .240 BABIP and an additional 50 innings, sub-4.00 production is still within reach due to his impressive strikeout ability.
As Eury Perez climbs into Edward Cabrera’s rotation slot, right-hander Max Meyer climbs up to Eury’s former rung. Hip surgery ended Meyer’s season in early June, supposedly taking care of a chronic impingement. The next step is staying healthy enough to make 20+ starts in the low-4.00s like Cabrera just did. Miami also gets Braxton Garrett back after missing all of 2025 due to internal brace surgery. Sub-4.00s across the board in both 2022 and 2023 hold promise for a similar 2026 with cautious expectations for 20 starts.
Although Sandy Alcantara’s name still circulates in trade rumors, he’s on the Marlins roster at the moment with low-4.00s projections. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner had a tougher return from Tommy John surgery than expected – on face value, anyways. 31 starts marked a step in the right direction and the 5.36 ERA looks a little better from the lens of a 4.28 FIP/4.19 xFIP. That ERA was the highest among Alcantara’s five full seasons, reducing his volume to where 2025 is the only one featuring less than 6 innings per start. Most projections tag him for workload and effectiveness more on par with 2023 after finishing the season with a 3.33 ERA on the heels of a first half 7.22 ERA. But the better Sandy pitches out of the gates, the more likely he is to be traded.
Digging Deep For Reinforcements
Depth is important for any rotation. In Miami’s case, depth is crucial. We just looked at three of the rotation’s prime members…and all of them had significant surgeries in the past couple years. Early options for the #5 spot include reclamation project Chris Paddack and Janson Junk. Paddack enters the season with more MLB starting pitcher experience but an outlook around 5.00 ERA. Junk took advantage of his latest opportunity with a 4.17 ERA and 3.14 FIP/4.06 xFIP over 110.0 MLB innings, surpassing the 40.0 innings compiled across the 2021-2024 campaigns. Both are contact pitchers who generally hit their spots and give up a little too much hard contact.
Unless Janson Junk convincingly breaks through this spring, he and Chris Paddack are buying time for prospects to come through. Dax Fulton’s stock dropped with a 5.38 ERA in the Minors underlined by a 12.2% walk rate and .350 BABIP. Not particularly great against predominantly Double-A competition. 21-year-old southpaw Thomas White finished 2025 on the other end of the spectrum. Working mainly in Single- and Double-A, the big fella balanced a hefty 13.6% walk rate with 38.6% strikeouts to earn a 2.31 ERA. Both White and fellow left-hander Robby Snelling received an invite to Spring Training where they may not make the Opening Day roster but can showcase their skills for promotion consideration. Snelling nailed down a third straight season in the Minors with 100+ innings and mid-2.00s stuff well worth a test drive.
Adam Mazur, Ryan Gusto, and Bradley Blalock all have MLB experience. Even if that experience was subpar, one of them could make enough progress to be a spot start beneficiary. Otherwise, Miami’s rotation is in need of help. Losing Sandy Alcantara to a trade is a distinct possibility; regardless, the 2026 rotation stands to gain 1-3 wins via the bumper crop of returning arms.
— Bullpen —
The difference between the 2024 and 2025 bullpens is harder to find than by comparing ERAs. Even if that is the most obvious sign of how pitchers fare. Yet this is the sort of thing that does not necessarily translate from one season to the next. Bullpen ERA drifted up from 4.15 in 2024 to 4.28 with both marks ranked 22nd in the MLB. Miami’s relievers fell short with how they dealt with opposing hitters, going from a solid 2.71 K/BB ratio to a bottom-third 2.28. It’s a wonder this unit didn’t see a larger ERA increase with fewer strikeouts, more walks, and 50% more homers.
Some amount of dropoff was foreseen when leverage arms Tanner Scott and AJ Puk were dealt in mid-2024. Then Andrew Nardi went down before the season started and big upside candidate Jesus Tinoco failed to launch. Left-hander Nardi returns from lower back issues to hold down a middle relief role with projections in the ballpark of his career 3.92 FIP/3.60 xFIP. Unfortunately, the Marlins lose standout reliever Ronny Henriquez to internal brace surgery after breaking through with a 2.22 ERA and 3.15 FIP/3.39 xFIP over a substantial 73.0 innings. Ronny’s 3.63 K/BB ratio was substantially better than the rest of the crew, leaving a big hole to fill.
Asking For More
Tampa Bay closer Pete Fairbanks headed south to stop the bleeding resulting from Henriquez’ absence. The 32-year-old righty’s fastball/slider pairing is still highly effective, yet way off of its 2023 dominant peak. 25.0% strikeout and 12%+ whiff rates are still worthy of high-leverage action when combined with the veteran’s approach. BABIP reversion and growing hard contact knock Fairbanks down towards the last two seasons’ mid-3.00s FIP/xFIP. Regardless, the Marlins could have done worse to shore up their late-inning group.
Ground ball righties Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher return as 4.00 or better arms. Why so high? Bender’s smoke and mirrors 2.16 ERA outperformed his 2.00 K/BB ratio, .213 BABIP, and growing hard contact rate. Faucher is a bit more puzzling outside of 2024’s home run-free season but should still be one of Clayton McCullough’s go-to arms throughout 2026. Tyler Phillips is back for season two in Miami on the heels of a 2.78 ERA in 77.2 innings of work. He has the goods to be a pitch-to-contact workhorse, just not a high-leverage one given his sub-20% strikeout rate and .251 BABIP headwinds.
Otherwise, less-experienced guys like Cade Gibson, Josh White, Lake Bachar, and Josh Simpson will compete with starting pitching depth for the other middle and long relief spots. There is potential for Miami’s bullpen to be a touch better with higher strikeout capability, just not substantially better given the lack of quality infusions and/or big-strikeout arms. Then again, a club kicking the tires on a relatively inexperienced roster as a whole doesn’t need a lockdown bullpen quite yet.
— Position Players —
To the Marlins’ credit, the position player corps did its part to improve in all three facets: hitting, fielding, and base running. All slash line elements (.250/.314/.393) improved, tacking on 9% of overall offensive production even without much power. For sake of comparison, we looked for Miami’s lineup to improve 2-4% last year. They were more active in the run game, increasing their stolen base success rate to 75.8% and being more advantageous on the base paths. Plus their defense turned positive for the first time in a few seasons.
From a league-wide perspective, Miami’s offensive numbers lagged the average benchmark. But they wouldn’t have gotten as close without Kyle Stowers’ out of left field 4.0-WAR effort. Stowers joined the club via the 2024 Trevor Rogers trade then put up a 57 wRC+ in the second half. That’s where a 35%+ strikeout rate effectively squelched 50%+ hard contact. Then something clicked last season. The 28-year-old “reinvented himself under Miami’s hitting group” with improved plate discipline, offering at pitches outside of the zone 5.5% less and converting more of that hard contact to barrels. The result: 25 home runs and a meaty .288/.368/.544 line.
Keeping Up With Expectations
Kyle Stowers’ plate discipline and power are legitimate. But now is the time for me to be the wet blanket. Even for a seemingly high-BABIP hitter, .356 is a very high mark to carry forward into 500+ more plate appearances. So the left-hander’s projections get a healthy dose of regression in the neighborhood of 30-40%. Miami’s front office seems to understand this and has put contract extension talks on ice until they see more. After all, Stowers is under team control through 2029.
On a similar note, 24-year-old centerfielder Jakob Marsee debuted with a phenomenal .292/.363/.478 and solid defensive grades. Marsee joined the Marlins organization in the May 2024 Luis Arraez trade with San Diego then steadily climbed the Minor League ranks. He too benefitted from an inflated .357 BABIP over a small 234-PA sample size that shrinks his offensive outlook by 30-40% over a full season. This is a prime example of less potency, more playing time for younger players who spiked in a limited debut. Regardless, Marsee plays quality defense at a premium position and has excellent speed to fuel activity on the base paths.
Rookie corner outfielder Heriberto Hernandez was another who flashed a potent bat upon his May debut. But he also thrived on a .335 BABIP that, when corrected for, brings his projected baseline down to slightly below average. However, the Marlins can afford to put the young right-handed hitter in a platoon bench role while kicking the tires on former Cubs prospect Owen Cassie. The key return in this winter’s Edward Cabrera trade has elite power fit for a corner outfielder but has barely scratched the surface on his MLB career. Miami is a perfect place to gain valuable playing time. This showcase of sorts will help determine whether the strikeout-prone 23-year-old can muster a league-average rookie campaign.
Shoring Up the Defense
Part of the Marlins’ unforeseen turnaround came in the field. Their defense improved to mid-pack levels per DRS (+16) and FRV (+1); a firm step up from bottom-five ranks in 2024. A 7th best +17 OAA is deceptive though, as that metric does not include catcher defense that was the club’s sore spot. Much of the defensive damage done behind the plate is attributed to 24-year-old Augustin Ramirez, whose -14 DRS/-12 FRV may land him more time as designated hitter.
This only works if prospect Joe Mack carries forward last year’s success in Triple-A. The 23-year-old has power and a strong arm to supplement Ramirez and Liam Hicks as Miami’s primary catchers. Mack’s hitting likely lags as he cuts his Major League teeth but shouldn’t be much worse than former backup catcher Nick Fortes’ bat. The sooner Clayton McCullough can turn things over to Hicks and Mack, the better. This position could provide the largest defensive improvement in 2026, more than making up for small declines in the outfield corners.
Miami’s middle infield got even better with Otto Lopez bumping Xavier Edwards from shortstop to second base. This shakeup helped the middle infield tandem find its groove and should be quite good once again. Plus they do damage on the base paths and don’t sacrifice too much offensively given their fielding benefits. Lackluster defense by Connor Norby at third base should persist as McCullough figures out how to handle the infield corners between Norby, Graham Pauley, and utility player Javier Sanoja. Status quo with the infield defense is not a terrible thing as the Marlins should keep most of last season’s fielding gains.
It’s hard not to like the direction of this position player corps. Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee have elevated the lineup’s floor, yet exude caution for “business as usual” projections after their very high BABIP breakthroughs. This is an interesting and evolving group with younger talent gaining valuable experience while constants like Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez hold their ground. Between the unknowns, regression potential, and multiple platoon situations, expect a similar output from the 2026 lineup with minor splits adjustments.
WAGER: Marlins Under 73.5 Wins
Clearly we are not buyers of the Marlins’ spike last season. Offseason adjustment #1 considers the team’s pythagorean win total of 72. Adjustment #2 factors returning players’ year-over-year change as well as the delta between incoming players and those they replace. Pressure across most areas of this team is to the downside, other than the rotation. Throw the numbers into the blender and there it is: a probable range of 68 to 72 wins that makes the under a go.
Atlanta Braves 2026 Win Total: Open 87.5, Now 89.5
2025 Result: Under 92 (76-86 / Pythag: 80)
As if the 0-7 start to the 2025 campaign wasn’t enough of a sign, Atlanta capped off a rough first half with a loss that put them 11 games under .500 at the All-Star Break. And things weren’t that much better down the stretch. Is September’s 10-game win streak a momentum builder for the season ahead? Your guess is as good as mine, although a healthier rotation and bouncebacks for several key hitters would go a long way to right the Braves’ ship for incoming manager Walt Weiss.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R Suarez (RP-R)
- M Yastrzemski (OF)
- M Dubon (UTL)
- J Heim (C)
- J Mateo (INF)
- I Hamilton (RP-R)
Subtractions:
- M Ozuna (DH)
- A Verdugo (OF)
- P Johnson (RP-R)
- N Allen (OF)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 88 – 91
— Position Players —
For the second straight season, the Braves lineup failed to produce at the level we’ve been accustomed to. Our call for a 5-7% offensive increase over a disappointing 2024 fizzled, as did the rosier outlook for the team as a whole. The offense’s first half struggles ultimately gave way to an 11% improvement after the All-Star Break due, in part, to superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.’s scorching September (.294/.429/.518). Plus they got a shot in the arm from NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin. The 24-year-old was obviously very important to the cause, gaining valuable playing time as the season went on and positioning himself as Atlanta’s catcher of the future.
Injuries are part of the story. Acuna spent a couple months on the IL, the iron man version of Austin Riley was absent once again, and battered veteran catcher Sean Murphy’s season was cut short by a nagging hip injury. But the majority of the position player corps was healthy and available aside from Jurickson Profar’s PED-related suspension. First baseman Matt Olson led the club in his fourth straight 162-game season with a career-high 724 plate appearances. The big left-handed hitter posted 90+ RBI and runs en route to a 4.7 WAR value behind an elite .272/.366/.484 slash line.
Despite playing through a hip injury for most – or all – of the 2025 season, Sean Murphy actually improved offensively and defensively. The bar was quite low, however, and returning to near league-average numbers at the plate wasn’t quite the spark this club was looking for. Center fielder Michael Harris II and second baseman Ozzie Albies stayed healthy but experienced broad declines in their games. Riley took his lumps in both respects, posting his lowest number of plate appearances (447) and wRC+ (103) since 2020.
Musical Chairs
Let’s put those issues with the core aside for a minute and talk shortstop, the Braves’ black hole in the lineup. Former Athletic Nick Allen delivered elite defense at this difficult position (+12 DRS/+12 FRV) but failed to offer much of anything at the plate (.221/.284/.251, 53 wRC+). How did Allen carry the lion’s share of action at shortstop for nearly an entire season? Fill-ins Vidal Brujan, Orlando Arcia, and Luke Williams were even worse from both perspectives. The solution: Ha-Seong Kim. He was to be the solution for 2026 until finger tendon surgery put him on the shelf until summer. Atlanta desperately needs Kim’s average bat and adequate defense but will have to wait a while. Jorge Mateo and/or Nacho Alvarez Jr. will split time with Mauricio Dubon as Atlanta’s shortstop stopgaps.
Atlanta’s outfield landed mid-pack with respect to hitting (100 wRC+) and WAR (4.9). In the field, however, the result was not far from the bottom. Centerfielder Michael Harris II’s offensive downturn was partially mitigated by plus defense. The left field pair of Alex Verdugo and Jurickson Profar was downright miserable at -9 DRS; a mixed bag of Profar’s rough fielding grades and Verdugo’s 69 wRC+. Marcel Ozuna’s absence opens the DH spot for Jurickson and, in turn, left field to a platoon featuring free agent acquisition Mike Yastrzemski. The 35-year-old splits +20% against righties; a grab bag of Eli White, Mauricio Dubon, and Jorge Mateo can platoon the short side.
Unfortunately, Ronald Acuna Jr. now looks like a Juan Soto-like corner outfielder after suffering two torn ACLs. That’s a superb comparison at the plate, just not in the field. On the topic of fielding, Sean Murphy is sidelined into May so Jonah Heim is tapped to play second fiddle to Drake Baldwin behind the plate. Heim is a firm downgrade to Murphy on both sides of the ledger until I see the contrary first hand. The outfield’s defensive upgrades could turn into a net negative with downgrades at the catcher group and shortstop.
Recapturing the Lineup’s Glory
Job #1 is getting Acuna back above 600 plate appearances where his +50% bat and speed can shine. He played in only 95 games upon return from injury but posted a promising 161 wRC+ behind a .290/.417/.518 slash line. Greater workload at a slightly reduced potency gains the right field position another win on top of 3-4 more in left and center. Upon return from the IL, league-average hitting Ha-Seong Kim with Dubon in support at shortstop gains another win net of the fielding dropoff from Nick Allen. Matt Olson could lose a few ticks, though firm improvement out of a healthy Austin Riley and a small BABIP bump for Ozzie Albies easily overshadow that.
Reinforcements on the farm are limited. Nacho Alvarez Jr. failed to seize the opportunity while Riley was on the IL and most of the minor league prospects are on the pitching side. This puts an extraordinary emphasis on Atlanta’s heavy hitters staying healthy for 150+ games: the club’s calling card during its banner years. That’s easier said than done. A 2-5% offensive improvement is very realistic as the position player group works to add 3+ wins to the ledger.
— Rotation —
Last season was the first since 2020 in which Atlanta’s rotation fell below league average in value (10.1 WAR), ERA (4.48), and FIP (4.20). Home runs generally punished them. Plus there was a gap between the 22nd best 4.48 ERA and 14th best 4.16 FIP. Smooth these numbers out for rough home run “luck” and you’re left with a 7th lowest 3.94 xFIP. As for injuries? Yeah, that was definitely an issue with Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes, Spencer Schwellenbach, and AJ Smith-Shawver all missing chunks of time.
25-year-old right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach flew too close to the sun, landing on the IL in early July from a right elbow stress fracture allegedly due to too much velocity. Recent setbacks will have him miss at least the first couple weeks of the season. A particularly tough blow considering 23-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery for most of the 2026 season. Grant Holmes avoided surgery on his partially-torn UCL and was deemed healthy this winter. He can be a depth piece in this year’s rotation with similar effectiveness around the 4.00 mark.
One positive surprise from 2025’s disappointing outcome is the emergence of 23-year-old Hurston Waldrep. The righty was called up as the 27th man in the rain-postponed MLB Speedway Classic, delivering a 5.2-inning gem against the Reds at Bristol Motor Speedway. (Unfortunately, we listened to that game in the car after giving it a go in the stands the night before.) Eight of his nine starts went at least 5 innings and only two yielded more than a pair of runs. The next step? Expand his role to a regular rotation member and see what happens to his superb 2.88 ERA and 3.21 FIP/3.66 xFIP. Several projections look just north of the 4.00 threshold as he acclimates.
What’s In Store For the Big Guns?
Even 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale was not immune to injury setbacks. The veteran left-hander missed over two months to rehab a fractured rib cage after diving for a ground ball. Fortunately, Sale’s slider/fastball-dominant offerings still graded out positively. Plus the injury was not arm related, sustaining a strong outlook for 2026 that calls for another 30%+ strikeout rate and top line numbers slightly north in the 3.00s. Getting another 5-10 starts out of the southpaw is well worth the mild effectiveness decline. But, as we all know, asking for 160+ innings from a 36-year-old who still throws hard is anything but a sure thing.
Guaranteeing success on the heels of a brilliant season is a fool’s errand, especially when it comes to pitchers. Spencer Strider’s 2022 breakout and sustained performance through the 2023 campaign ran face-first into the block wall known as a torn UCL. His 2025 return from rehab resulted in a hamstring strain after just one start that put him back on the shelf for a month. Then reality hit hard as Strider’s fastball velo dropped 2-3 mph from those breakout seasons. His command and pitch quality were down across the board, resulting in much fewer strikes, whiffs, and strikeouts in general while walks and hard contact increased. Strider’s upper-3.00s projections are more promising though.
Not to be forgotten is former starter, then reliever, and now back to starter (maybe) Reynaldo Lopez. The righty effectively missed all of the 2025 season after undergoing shoulder surgery in April. Fortunately, there was no structural damage and the 32-year-old should return to the rotation. Even if Lopez is ready to roll straight out of Spring Training, management plans to work around his volume limitations since mid-20s Reynaldo is a thing of the past. He still garners upper-3.00s projections worth 1-2 WAR predominantly as a starting pitcher.
A Safety Net of Sorts
There’s a healthy crop of starting pitching talent banging on the door to balance out all the injury history and aging talk. But will they impact the 2026 rotation? Atlanta’s #1 prospect Didier Fuentes had a rough MLB debut in June despite strong grades of his fastball/slider/cutter offerings. The 20-year-old’s horrendous execution can be chalked up to age and his trademark shaky command. Lucas Braun reached Triple-A for the first time in late 2025, ramping into back-to-back 140+ inning seasons in the Minors. Both Braun and JR Ritchie have moved up the ranks but neither are currently on the 40-man roster.
Beyond those three fairly raw pitching prospects, 26-year-old Bryce Elder has 434.2 MLB innings under his belt. The righty’s first two seasons with the Braves were quite good given hi command-based ground ball approach. Then things really went wrong in 2024 before necessity forced him into last year’s rotation. There is hope that Elder can dodge the home run a little better and keep his ERA below 5.00 if called back into the rotation. Bryce’s success could be the stopgap the Braves need after getting the bad news about Spencer Schwellenbach.
Variance is the name of the game with this rotation. And Spencer Strider arguably has the widest range among the Braves’ Opening Day starting pitchers. Just look at what we saw this guy do just a few years ago compared to last year’s work on the mound. There are 2-4 wins of upside well within reach if the injury gods aren’t more hateful than usual. That’s always the caveat when projecting pitchers. But some clubs have more riskier profiles throughout their stables and Atlanta is one of them right now.
— Bullpen —
It doesn’t take much to see the up-and-down nature of the Atlanta bullpen via the graphic below. While injuries were the key culprit of the rotation’s disappointing season, the relievers appeared to experience fierce regression after their elite work in 2024. Trusted closer Raisel Iglesias returns on a 1-year deal after a solid season that, much like other key relievers on this squad, failed to sustain the prior year’s ridiculous numbers. His stuff is still good, most notably the take a seat slider. At the age of 36, Iglesias can still rack up 14%+ whiffs and sub-40% hard contact with his command and savvy veteran approach.
Notable subtractions from the 2025 group are limited to setup man Pierce Johnson. Second half acquisition Tyler Kinley experienced much better results moving from Coors Field and is under contract for 2026. The veteran righty spun a 0.72 ERA and 2.74 FIP/4.37 xFIP with Atlanta by virtue of a .156 BABIP and only 0.36 HR/9 innings. It’s safe to say the Braves got the best of Kinley in that short period of time. Johnson had a very similar result back in 2023 after being traded from the Rockies at the deadline. Pierce’s low-to-mid 3.00 effectiveness and 56+ innings in each of the last two full seasons will be missed.
The Big Catch
Atlanta compensates for that departure with star free agent reliever Robert Suarez on a 3-year, $45M deal. He assumes the Pierce Johnson role as a low-3.00s setup man alongside left-hander Dylan Lee – another one who was good for the Braves last year but not as elite as in 2024. The 34-year-old Suarez brings a top-shelf three pitch mix and high-leverage command that should eventually lead him to the closer role much like in San Diego. This back-end trio has 2+ WAR written all over it even with reasonable projections.
Another “addition” that the club could use in 2026 is veteran right-hander Joe Jimenez after missing all of 2025 rehabbing from knee surgery. A subsequent cleanup procedure this past fall may or may not have been successful, leaving his status for Spring Training up in the air. Either way, Jimenez likely won’t produce at the sub-3.00, 68.2 IP level he left off with. Would they welcome back his upper-3.00s arm to go with lefty Aaron Bummer and re-signed Tyler Kinley as go-to middle relievers? Absolutely. He is a step above the likes of Joel Payamps, Ian Hamilton, etc. as the innings eaters of Walt Weiss’ bullpen.
As the rotation gets healthier, Grant Holmes figures to bolster the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever. Plus prospects like Didier Fuentes or JR Ritchie are candidates to cut their teeth in the pen next year. Joe Jimenez’ delayed return might be the only headwind for this group out of the gates, which says a lot. They’re not quite back to the 5+ WAR level but something north of 3 is well within reach, yielding a 2+ win improvement.
Washington Nationals 2026 Win Total: Open 69.5, Now 66.5
2025 Result: Under 71 (66-96 / Pythag: 61)
2025 was a season of change for the Nationals, just not the kind of change the club was looking for. Instead of advancing their position in the NL East pecking order, their manager of 7+ seasons Davey Martinez and general manager of 2+ decades Mike Rizzo were shown the door. Blake Butera takes on the role of skipper while former Boston GM Paul Toboni now leads the front office. The new boss will put his fingerprint on the organization after its young hitters failed to progress and the pitching staff wallowed near the bottom of the league. What was bad for the Nats in 2025 was good for our bankroll though. Will this MacKenzie Gore-less team in transition provide any opportunities in this season’s futures markets?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- M Mikolas (SP-R)
- H Ford (C)
- F Griffin (SP-L)
Subtractions:
- M Gore (SP-L)
- J Ferrer (RP-L)
- J Lopez (RP-R)
- P DeJong (INF)
- J Bell (1B)
- D Law (RP-R)
- K Pilkington (RP-L)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 60 – 67
— Position Players —
“Consistently subpar” is not the descriptor you want to see used for your offense. A reasonable start in the cold spring months slowly deteriorated into a bottom third effort overall. Despite the promising young position player core, it was business as usual since losing Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber prior to the 2022 campaign. Their collective .242/.304/.389 slash line ranked bottom third, as did most of the lineup’s statistical categories. Where they stood out was the league’s 10th highest 132 stolen bases. But that’s just part of the story. Washington runners were caught stealing 48 times, the 2nd highest around the MLB.
The Nats lineup treaded water over the big picture. In terms of handedness splits, they made gains against right-handed pitching while declining against southpaws. A look at the lineup’s composition reveals a group heavily skewed by left-handed hitters like James Wood, CJ Abrams, and 23-year-old breakout player Daylen Lile. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Wood was sharp against righties as well, joining Amed Rosario and Alex Call – both of whom will play elsewhere in 2026 – as leaders in this regard.
Mixed Results From Washington’s Next Generation
Despite being bearish on the Nats’ 2025 win total, we were generally on board with James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Jacob Young growing into key lineup roles alongside CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. Instead, the year-to-year change was lateral for some but firmly in the wrong direction for others. Abrams is an interesting case study in that he may have established a solid plus-hitting baseline while gaining a little more traction in the field. Or did he?
CJ ranked either 19th or 21st defensively among 22 qualified shortstops, depending on whether you look at DRS or FRV. Of course, defensive grading is one of the least accurate processes in this data-heavy sport. No matter how you slice it, the Nationals were one of the worst fielding teams yet again. Add in the James Wood conundrum where he is clearly a bat you want in the lineup every day but his fielding is detrimental. I’ll come back to this once we get into Daylen Lile’s role in the 2026 lineup.
This isn’t a matter of cherrypicking the lineup’s disappointing portion by any means. The graphic shows four of the lineup’s six most used batters of the 2025 season. As catcher, Keibert Ruiz was in a typical timeshare with backup Riley Adams; outfielder Dylan Crews simply failed to produce against left-handed pitching like in his rookie debut. Crews is a solid defender that the team desperately needs to progress at the plate in order to shore up their weak side. His expected production bump fueled by positive BABIP regression never quite materialized.
A Bright Spot to Grow On
23-year-old Daylen Lile made his way to the top half of the Nats’ lineup after debuting on May 23rd. The left-handed hitter became a key cog in Washington’s surprisingly good offense against righty pitchers. It’s not a case of instant success though, as Lyle was sent back to the minors shortly after his call-up. Recalled ten days later, the young outfielder began his steady ascent in earnest. Production increased each month, resulting in a second half .333/.380/.576 and 162 wRC+. Caution is warranted with the .380 BABIP during that monster finish to the season.
Our faithful readers should know by now that translating impressive rookie debuts into full season success is easier said than done. Defense was certainly not his strong suit (-14 DRS/-10 FRV) and the increased volume, decreased effectiveness heuristic is in play with 2026 projections. Lile had Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm back in 2021, limiting his throwing strength and making him a better fit in left field than in right. This is where moving James Wood into a predominantly-DH role opens up that position for Lile to grow into better. It makes sense this year without Josh Bell tying up the designated hitter spot.
Raising the Floor
One of the team’s more disappointing players of 2025 is centerfielder Jacob Young. The Nationals can live with a -10% bat at this premium position when you save double digits runs in the field. Unfortunately, Young declined nearly 20% at the plate and slightly more so with his stronger side against left-handed pitchers. His time share in center declined due to this drop in production and the emergence of Robert Hassell III. The 24-year-old left-hander Hassell bombed in his spring debut and was only marginally better after being recalled in August. Both Young’s and Hassell’s projections sit at 10-20% below average; an improvement over the MLB’s next-to-worst offensive center field position group.
Luis Garcia Jr. figures to be displaced from his customary second base position this season. The 25-year-old’s fielding dropped off significantly from the previous two seasons, sliding him over to first base with platoon partner Andres Chaparro in the absence of Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe. Fortunately, projections give the disciplined hitter a bump back towards his 2024 high water mark after a career-low .270 BABIP. The light-hitting Nasim Nunez is in line to replace Garcia at second base with superior fielding skills and lesser bat.
Third base is a bit of a mess unless 2021 first round pick Brady House delivers a solid sophomore season. They need the free-swinging righty to contribute towards an improvement against southpaws as the hot corner anchor. Things can only go up from last season’s next-to-worst third base grouping valued at -0.3 WAR. That same distinction is shared by the catching tandem of Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams that is gradually being phased out. Drew Millas and former Mariner Harry Ford should get looks if Ruiz especially can’t get his act together. Ford’s good plate discipline, power, and solid backstop skills should earn the 23-year-old a spot on the 26-man roster if – or when – the incumbents fall off the map.
Don’t Get Fooled Again? Or Buy the Upside?
Projections are generally favorable to the Nationals position player corps much like they were this time last year. Granted, the 2025 results fell about 6 wins short of expectation. What makes this year different? Another season under the belts of the young core is a positive. If manager Blake Butera plays his cards right and integrates fresh blood like Harry Ford sooner than later, the Nats’ weakest positions could get a shot in the arm. Several projections are optimistic on CJ Abrams’ defense – which I am skeptical of – plus Nasim Nunez represents a major fielding upgrade at second base if he can stick on the roster. Our conservative approach marks up Washington’s defense enough to make a difference as the offense improves several percentage points with a bias towards left-handed pitching.
— Rotation —
2024 appears to be an outlier for the Washington rotation in the post-2020 landscape. Their starting pitchers continued to suffer from a high BABIP (.302), which is anything but a fluke with the defensive woes surrounding them. A low strikeout rate (19.3%) and rough home run rate (1.38 HR/9 innings) contributed to a bottom-five 5.18 ERA and 4.62 FIP/4.43 xFIP. Last offseason, we projected a 3-5 win reduction with upside that never panned out. In fact, the year-over-year net worked out to more than a 5 WAR falloff. Sometimes a rotation’s win/loss record can be deceiving. In the Nationals’ case, 36-74 aligns with the broad range of statistics.
Staff ace MacKenzie Gore couldn’t quite add to his 2024 “step forward” season. Most of that was due to a putrid second half in which his ERA inflated from 3.02 to 6.75. A couple short IL visits kept him from reaching the 32 start mark, though his strikeout and swinging strike rates ticked up along with hard contact. Otherwise, it was business as usual for the left-hander. More of the same without injury keeps him in the 3-WAR ballpark, which is good enough to return five prospects in a January trade with the Rangers.
What Supporting Cast?
To be fair, the expected upside for the 2025 group rested with the supporting cast to MacKenzie Gore. Reclamation project Michael Soroka posted a 4.87 ERA prior to being shipped to the Cubs for a pair of prospects. That said, Soroka only pitched 8.1 innings for the Cubs due to a prolonged IL stint. And 26-year-old lefty Mitchell Parker worked himself out of the rotation with a disappointing campaign on the heels of a promising 2024. His ERA as a starter ballooned from 4.29 to 5.85 along with a FIP increase just over one run. Although his stuff didn’t grade out any worse from one season to the next, hitters blasted him for a 50.0% hard hit rate as his K/BB ratio sunk from 3.09 to 1.78.
Jake Irvin sustained a second straight 33-start season with 180+ innings. However, the ugly side of his season echos Mitchell Parker’s woes. K/BB ratio dropped from 3.00 to 2.00; hard contact up 8% to 47.1%. The net result: a 5.70 ERA and 5.64 FIP/4.82 xFIP. That cratered his valuation from 1.8 to -0.4 WAR but the lack of available depth keeps him in the rotation. Parker, Irvin, and Gore were the only Nats starters to make 20+ starts and log 100+ innings as starting pitchers. Adding injury to insult, Washington will be without Trevor Williams for most of the upcoming campaign recovering from internal brace surgery while DJ Herz targets a summer comeback from Tommy John rehab. Don’t expect either to play a significant role in the rotation.
A New Batch of Reinforcements
So that leaves the door wide open for several rookies and other folks returning from injuries. Ground ball pitcher Brad Lord became a regular in the post-ASB rotation, though the jury is out on whether his deficient fastball offerings can carry the load for a full season. In the good news department, Josiah Gray is in line for a healthy return from Tommy John and internal brace surgeries. A headliner in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade with the Dodgers, Josiah looked to be on the right track in 2023 before an early exit the following season. Growing pains are still on the menu for the 28-year-old but three years of team control help Gray’s long term outlook with the Nationals.
If there’s anyone to look forward to returning, it’s the once-promising Cade Cavalli who showed off a quality diverse arsenal after 2-1/2 years of Tommy John rehab and subsequent setbacks. The ground baller struggled to strike out batters and was punished by a .327 BABIP due to the team’s poor defense and a 41.3% hard hit rate. Although the 10-start sample is far from gospel, four of his five pitches graded out quite well in limited duty. Cavalli throws hard and has the stuff to fill a season with 4.00-type effectiveness.
Grabbing a veteran like Miles Mikolas adds a veteran presence that this rotation is generally lacking. Although the former Cardinal won’t overpower you or grind out 180+ innings, he reduces the Nats’ dependency on wild cards like Foster Griffin and Andrew Alvarez. Alvarez is relatively untested in the Majors outside of his five starts as a rookie last season. The 2.31 ERA is great; the .227 BABIP and 2.00 K/BB ratio speak to a tougher follow-up. Griffin returns from a prolific three year career in the KBO where strong command and a new splitter aided in his repatriation to the MLB. The impact on 2026: a refreshed, but not necessarily deep front line. Washington’s rotation should maintain its low WAR value, though the success of the entire pitching staff likely hinges on how many additional innings the starters can muster.
— Bullpen —
The five-year bullpen performance plot mimics the up-and-down nature of the Braves, just much more pronounced. Granted, the recurring theme of poor defense only exacerbated its .312 BABIP, 5.39 ERA, and 4.86 FIP/4.63 xFIP. In relative terms, the Nationals relievers’ ERA, FIP, xFIP, -0.5 WAR, and 1.94 K/BB ratio ranked either last or next-to-last above the Rockies. Let that sink in for a minute. Projecting a 1-3 win decline from 2024 was a key part in our position against the club last season. It simply did not have the composition to support a team shooting for a .500 record. And neither is this season’s version.
31 of the Nationals’ 37 saves were nailed down by Kyle Finnegan and Jose Ferrer. Finnegan was traded to the Tigers at the deadline for a pair of high-A starting pitching prospects. Similarly, Ferrer was swapped for catcher Harry Ford this offseason. That leaves big-K guys Clayton Beeter and PJ Poulin along with a myriad of other lightly-experienced pitchers to finish off 162 games. The general concept of “they can’t be that bad again” is the main reason this bullpen shouldn’t repeat with a negative value. Accordingly, some promising arms will emerge as others are relegated back to the minors. That is the nature of relief units without a heavy influence of trusted veterans. Improvement should be marginal at best as the Nats search for answers in the bullpen.
WAGER: Nationals Under 66.5 Wins
We go back to the well with fading the Nationals, albeit at a significantly lower win total this season. The position is similar to Miami’s above, except the position player group may actually perform better in 2026. Between the revised direction that this franchise has taken and them having one of the rougher pitching staffs in the Majors, we’re holding our noses and going under one of the lowest totals on the board. Usually I am a bargain hunter for stabilizing teams with such low numbers. But the Nationals don’t fit that mold – at least from a pure numbers perspective. Maybe the club’s new leadership will unlock hidden potential with this roster. Only time will tell…
2026 NL East Projected Standings
- Atlanta Braves (90-72)
- Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
- New York Mets (89-73)
- Miami Marlins (69-93)
- Washington Nationals (62-100)
Two Bagger
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