It’s a tradition at this point. My undervaluing the Milwaukee Brewers and this division as a whole. The Brew Crew claimed another division crown with rocking chair ease down the stretch. For better or worse, this is a division that sent three teams to the postseason with one of those being my Cincinnati Reds. Will the 2026 NL Central contribute three teams to the playoff mix once again? The Pirates finally opened up their checkbook and the Cubs reloaded after losing Kyle Tucker. One thing is for sure, the heat has been turned up in the division.
The 2026 MLB season ushers in The BetCrushers’ 7th Annual Division Preview series. We look for value in the futures markets in this labor of love, especially regular season win totals. We appreciate all of our faithful and new readers! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)
2025 Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
2025 NL Central Final Standings
- Milwaukee Brewers (97-65)
- Chicago Cubs (92-70)
- Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
- St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)
Milwaukee Brewers 2026 Win Total: Open 87.5, Now 84.5
2025 Result: Over 82.5 (97-65 / Pythag: 99)
Limited payroll, small market, less exciting roster than the heavyweights…whatever the narrative may be, the Milwaukee Brewers just know how to win. 2025 marked their fourth NL Central crown in the last five seasons, with 92 or more wins in each of them. They haven’t solved the postseason quite yet but continue to stymie the rest of their division foes. The formula: win in the spring and keep the foot on the gas heading into the fall. The Brew Crew lost their ace this offseason while adding more fuel to their pipeline’s fire, making them an interesting club to dive into for the 2026 season.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Harrison (LHP)
- D Hamilton (INF)
- A Zerpa (RP-L)
- G Sanchez (C)
- L Rengifo (INF)
Subtractions:
- F Peralta (SP-R)
- T Myers (RHP)
- C Durbin (3B)
- I Collins (OF)
- N Mears (RP-R)
- A Monasterio (INF)
- J Quintana (SP-L)
- R Hoskins (1B)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 78 – 86
— Position Players —
Milwaukee’s formula for an effective offense revolves around getting men on base and being disruptive. The long ball hasn’t truly been a huge part of their success since the Willy Adames/Rowdy Tellez days. Instead, the Brew Crew leans on high-OBP guys like Brice Turang, William Contreras, and Sal Frelick to turn over the lineup and move base runners around. Despite smacking just the 22nd most home runs (166) in the MLB last year, their 2nd best 0.45 BB/K ratio, 2nd most stolen bases (164), and 3rd highest runs scored (806) speak volumes to this approach. And sometimes you just stick the landing with midseason trades like Andrew Vaughn. Who were we to expect this offense to fall by 5-7% last season? This team is always a tough one for us to project because of how they get things done.
This is also a team that consistently puts a strong defense on the field. You have to go back at least ten seasons to find a Brewers club where fielding was a liability. Score runs, defend well, and close out games. If you’re a lover of small ball this team is for you. And it’s anything but boring. Seven different Brewers stole 14+ bases in a quantity-driven approach. They weren’t the most efficient as their 75.6% success rate lagged the league’s mark by a couple percent. But it works for them, as does being advantageous on the base paths otherwise. Not only did Milwaukee have the 2nd most stolen bases behind the Rays, they graded out as the best overall running team.
Keeping the Fire Burning
Milwaukee essentially reboots last year’s lineup with minimal losses. Veteran Rhys Hoskins became expendable as the rejuvenated Andrew Vaughn led the first base group to a dramatic 37% offensive uptick. With two years of team control remaining, Vaughn’s $7.65M salary is on the pricey side – especially when factoring in the huge BABIP turnaround between the first few months in Chicago and his second half with the Crew. As for the season ahead, expect a plus bat with some weakness to right-handed pitching instead of the .308/.375/.493 line over 254 plate appearances in Milwaukee.
Also gone is 28-year-old outfielder Isaac Collins that the Matt Arnold-led front office sold high on. This roster is stocked up on gritty outfielders in their 20s, including Garrett Mitchell who returns from a season limited by shoulder surgery. Both Mitchell and Collins have average-ish bats except Garrett plays strong defense at any outfield position. Young phenom Jackson Chourio’s fielding may be more suitable for a corner outfield spot. If so, his plus-15% bat fits that mold nicely. Depth on the grass is decent too. The speedy Blake Perkins also plays center well in a short-side timeshare with Garrett Mitchell; left-handed hitter Jake Bauers hits righties fine enough to support left field or first base.
Right fielder Sal Frelick stepped up in his second full season in the Majors, slashing .288/.351/.405 over 594 PAs. Yet most projections are skeptical of the light-hitting 25-year-old sustaining those levels. Similar questions surround second baseman Brice Turang’s recent power surge. And what about his .356 BABIP? This is where projections diverge from the ol’ eye test. But these guys play for the Brewers, an organization that seemingly gets more from less. And we’ve been very wrong about this offense before.
Making Moves
The front office did not sit still after trading Isaac Collins early this winter and Freddy Peralta in late January. Rookie third baseman Caleb Durbin was shipped to Boston along with infield bench player Andruw Monasterio a couple weeks later. After grading out with 2.6 WAR, Durbin’s strong fielding, speed, and average bat leaves a hole in the right side of the infield. This trade also swaps Monasterio for David Hamilton as infield depth. Both are fine defensively; the offensive tradeoff sacrifices Andruw’s bat for David’s legs.
It seems a lot further back than 2024 when shortstop Willy Adames entered free agency on a high note. He left after a career season in plate appearances (688), home runs (32), stolen bases (21), and WAR (4.8). Joey Ortiz joined the roster in the Corbin Burnes trade with Baltimore, delivering a decent 105 wRC+ primarily playing third base. Then the bottom dropped out of his bat. Ortiz swung more, walked less, and hit the ball hard less frequently. That puts him in no-man’s land for 2026, earning projections anywhere from sub-5% to sub-20% at the plate. At least it’s a step in the right direction.
Make no bones about it, this club continues to outperform with the help of unsung players rising up through the ranks. We’ve already hit on a few who have done just that in recent years. Milwaukee’s pipeline is strong, though the likes of Luis Lara, Jesus Made, and Cooper Pratt do not appear quite ready for primetime. Or do they? These are the kind of young players who can seemingly come out of nowhere and immediately contribute. 23-year-old catcher prospect Jeferson Quero’s promotion isn’t crucial with Gary Sanchez tagged as the junior parter to William Contreras. But Quero is one of these pieces who will help shape the Brewers in 2027 and beyond.
Pieces Of the Puzzle
The wealth of good defensive outfielders keeps Christian Yelich at DH where he is best suited these days. Now 34, Yelich still hits the ball hard but is slipping in the discipline department and making less contact overall. Another season of subtle decline still keeps him in plus-10% or better territory as a quality strong-side bat. Ironman catcher William Contreras plays a minor support role for Yelich but doesn’t have a ton of time outside of his primary position behind the plate though. The 28-year-old has been spectacular since joining the Brew Crew, providing plus defense and a plus-25% bat that should persist. Wear and tear will eventually become an issue, just not quite yet though.
General manager Matt Arnold could still be banking on shortstop prospect Jett Williams making a splash this season. One of the returns in the Freddy Peralta trade with the Mets, the 5’7″ 22-year-old gets solid projections for a slightly-below average bat with solid fielding and tons of speed. Those projections come with enough variance that may or may not balance out the net change from losing Durbin and Ortiz rebounding. Until Williams is ready for prime time, free agent infielder Luis Rengifo is serviceable at third base while Ortiz holds down the fort at shortstop. The former Angel yields effectiveness both offensively and in the field when compared to Durbin’s 2025 numbers.
As good as this defense is, there’s still another notch of improvement they can achieve this season. Buying their pure rookie shortstop more time with the Rengifo signing does not hurt, though I can imagine they want Williams on the roster sooner than later. There are gains to be had with Garrett Mitchell returning to the outfield in addition to internal improvements across the dirt. As for the Milwaukee lineup, well, our numbers call for another 5-6% decline with several players coming off of peak performances. But how did that turn out for us last season? Take that with a grain of salt.
— Rotation —
We oversold the lineup’s demise last winter and slightly lowballed the rotation’s improvement. Milwaukee’s starting pitchers went a touch over our 3-5 win increase estimate, racking up the 10th highest WAR total of 12.6. Their 3rd best 3.56 ERA outperformed FIP once again – a product of the team’s high-quality defense that helped keep the rotation’s BABIP justifiably low yet again. The key deficiency continued to be volume despite picking up an additional 13.1 innings over 2024’s rotation.
Losing ace Freddy Peralta doesn’t particularly help the workload issue. The trusty right-hander was the only Milwaukee starter to post more than 150 innings for the second straight season. And his shoes will be especially hard to fill leaving after a career best 2.70 ERA over 176.2 innings. Trading Peralta makes sense in the bigger pitcher though. 2026 is his final season before becoming eligible for free agency, plus this franchise has a track record of winning deals that reload the system with quality players.
Not Missing a Beat
Brewers’ lifer Brandon Woodruff is the natural fit for the staff ace vacancy. Unrelated setbacks after late 2023 shoulder surgery limited the 33-year-old to just 12 starts last year. But Woody was very impressive over that compressed body of work, earning a 3.20 ERA with 3.17 FIP/3.24 xFIP. He hits his spots and gets whiffs without much smoke and mirrors. And his slider was as good as ever. Cautiously spread that out over 25+ starts and Woodruff’s firmly sub-4.00 outlook climbs towards a clean replacement for Freddy Peralta in 2026.
Now we get into the interesting stuff. Veteran stopgap Jose Quintana is out after pitching 131.2 innings over 25 starts at 3.96 ERA. This enables the Crew’s young talent pipeline to climb another rung and make a bigger impact. Lanky right-hander Jacob Misiorowski broke through after his June call-up, showing off a wicked arsenal anchored by a 100-mph four-seamer. The next step is to go deeper into 20+ starts with an ERA right around 4.00. Top prospect graduate Quinn Priester finally got a chance to show off his heavy sinker effectiveness once traded from the Red Sox in April. He is also a solid 4.00 guy who has the makeup to take on a full workload and hopefully pump some innings into the 2026 rotation.
Rookie Chad Patrick bounced between the Minors a couple times after making the team out of Spring Training. Most importantly, the 27-year-old ended the campaign with a 3.50 ERA as a starter and should stick in the 2026 rotation despite 4.00+ projections. Patrick showed manager Pat Murphy more to inspire confidence as opposed to 24-year-old Logan Henderson who scattered five starts across two windows in the Major Leagues. He is primarily a fastball/changeup guy with 4.00 stuff and the potential to make 20+ starts.
Strength In Numbers
This team has a substantial starting pitcher pipeline straddled by MLB-ready arms as well as ones more suitable for 2027 and beyond. Depth is very important given Brandon Woodruff’s recent injury woes and a bunch of young arms behind him. Plus swingman-type Tobias Myers was sent to the Mets in the Peralta trade. Robert Gasser would bring a little diversity to this righty-dominant rotation at some point while young southpaw Kyle Harrison finds his footing in the Minors.
But my guess is 25-year-old righty Brandon Sproat is the one Milwaukee wants to see make the 26-man roster sooner than later. A key return in the Peralta trade along with Jett Williams, Sproat got a taste of MLB action last September. His broad arsenal hinges on a heavy sinker backed up by high-quality secondaries. Barring disaster in Spring Training, this kid should get his share of reps this season between the bullpen and rotation. The Brewers starting pitching group is young, hungry, and talented. Pat Murphy will undoubtedly experience some growing pains with them but I still like their chances to maintain last year’s overall value.
— Bullpen —
Volume was the name of the game for the Brewers bullpen once again. Although they could not hang onto 2024’s insanely-low 3.11 ERA, there is no shame in having the 6th lowest 3.63 ERA. Between that, the 4th highest workload (634.2 IP), and a solid underlying 3.72 FIP/4.06 xFIP, this unit was valued at 6.0 WAR right up there with the best of them.
The Brew Crew’s relief unit returns mostly in the same shape as it finished the 2025 season. Swingman Tobias Myers takes his stingy 1.91 ERA over 16 outings to the Mets though. And they lose Nick Mears’ 3.49 ERA across a hefty 56.2 innings. Left-hander Angel Zerpa enters with sub-4.00 stuff that has serious upside given the quality of his sinker/slider combo. Grant Anderson and Rob Zastryzny return to eat innings, as the bullpen will likely need to do again in 2026.
However, it’s the leverage group that really looks potent after the pecking order shook out. Righties Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill – who I still feel personally aggrieved by choking away a fat dog position in Arizona – have legitimate weapons suited for lockdown roles. Jared Koenig and Aaron Ashby serve as go-to lefties with 3.00+ numbers. Ashby’s powerful sinker can change the game state in a second while Koenig succeeds with weak ground ball contact. There’s not even many hairs to split with this group. This bullpen is damn good and the likely way they lose value is if the rotation picks up a bunch more innings or widespread injuries strike. Case closed.
Chicago Cubs 2026 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 89.5
2025 Result: Over 87 (92-70 / Pythag: 96)
The Cubs resurgence hype was indeed real. If it wasn’t for those pesky Brewers, the club was on track to snag its first division title since 2020. Regardless, Chicago won its first postseason series since its title defense season in 2017 when they fell to the Dodgers in the NLCS. This is a pivotal year though as six veterans enter the final year of their contracts. In response, the front office pushed in its chips to snag prized free agent third baseman Alex Bregman and trade for starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. The hunt for the franchise’s fourth World Series Championship is indeed on.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- A Bregman (3B)
- E Cabrera (SP-R)
- T Austin (1B)
- P Maton (RP-R)
- H Milner (RP-L)
- H Harvey (RP-R)
- J Webb (RP-R)
Subtractions:
- K Tucker (OF)
- B Keller (RP-R)
- D Pomeranz (RP-L)
- R Brazier (RP-R)
- C Flexen (RP-R)
- R Pressly (RP-R)
- O Caissie (OF)
- J Turner (1B/DH)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 86 – 88
— Position Players —
Chicago’s hot first half gave way to a holding pattern after the All-Star Break. Their offensive production dip shown the trend plot below aligns with their less robust second half. It’s not as if the lineup struggled by any means – it became less consistent on a week-to-week basis. Maybe that’s just me splitting hairs. After all, this was the 6th best park-adjusted offense (110 wRC+) that stole the 3rd most bases (161) at a healthy 82.1% clip. Their 223 home runs were 6th most in the MLB and 793 runs were 5th most, making the 2025 offense the best the Cubs have had in quite some time. And they did it with the 8th lowest BABIP (.283).
One would think that Kyle Tucker’s one-season stand in Chicago led them to these lofty marks. And, for the most part, he did. Despite missing most of September, Tuck greased the wheels with the most runs scored, 3rd most stolen bases, and highest OBP among Cubs hitters with 100+ plate appearances. Now he’s off to greener pastures, joining the back-to-back World Champion Dodgers on a fat 4-year deal.
More Last Stands In Chicago?
Four of the six veterans on their final years under contract are in the position player group. Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ have played together since Hoerner came up in 2019, though all three have been lineup regulars since 2022. NPB masher Seiya Suzuki has produced fairly steadily during his tenure to the tune of a .269/.346/.472 slash line mostly as designated hitter the last couple seasons. The 31-year-old will return to right field after Tucker’s departure with a minimal defensive dropoff. Expect more of the same at the plate.
Across the outfield, Ian Happ enters his fifth season as the Cubs’ everyday left fielder. The switch hitter still has the range and arm to field the position well. This complements his plus-15% bat that is fairly well immune to splits issues like Suzuki and second baseman Nico Hoerner who comes off one of his most robust seasons. Hoerner’s projections put him in the average-plus bucket with polarizing expectations in the field. Will he repeat those career-best +17 DRS and +12 FRV fielding grades? Doubtful, though the falloff should be modest for the reigning Gold Glover.
Nico has been instrumental in the Cubbies’ four straight seasons of strong base running grades. Kyle Tucker’s 25 stolen bases played a role in 2025’s continued success, though there is no clear replacement for that on the roster. A reduced role for Matt Shaw as a utility player plus losing speedy role player Jon Berti all converge on a small reduction to the team’s run game potential. Chicago should still be well above average on the bases, just not a top three performer like the last couple seasons.
Coming On Strong
Speaking of running, there’s a lot to like about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s second substantial season since his brief 2023 debut. 35 stolen bases at an 81.4% success rate with an eye-popping 31 home runs say plenty. Similar to another NL Central terror on the bases we’ll get to soon, Pete’s second half accounted for just 23% of those stolen bases and a 59% reduction at the plate. It is fair to expect PCA – who is entering his age-24 season – to manage a full MLB campaign with more experience under his belt. The Cubs need his speed and elite defense in center field regardless of what month it is. Extra days of rest when a tough left-hander is on the mound make sense given his struggles with this split. But Chicago doesn’t have a great solution for this arrangement unless Chas McCormick looks good enough to make the MLB roster.
Now we finally get to the big news: Alex Bregman. The elite third baseman does many things well, notably fielding and getting on base as a plus-15% bat at this point in his career. Upstart Matt Shaw gets displaced from the hot corner for good reason as Bregman holds the edge on both sides of the ledger. The 24-year-old has value as a utility player though. But full-time Bregman at third provides a lift that takes the edge off of the small net decrease from losing Kyle Tucker in right field.
Opposite Alex Bregman is the Cubbies’ legitimized first baseman Michael Busch. The former Dodgers prospect looked good in his Chicago debut then proceeded to blow those numbers out of the water in 2025. More bombs, less strikeouts, and even more hard contact. Busch’s more disciplined approach paid off with a 140 wRC+ with one key flaw: he lost his touch against lefties. Projections are down across the board though, ranging from a 10-25% reduction with 2024’s numbers serving as a floor.
Continuity In Action
Dansby Swanson continues to play a mean shortstop even if his game is off the 2022 peak. At this point, the 32-year-old packs an average bat that can occupy the bottom half of the lineup nearly every day. Veteran Carson Kelly returns on the final season of his 2-year deal to lead a backstop group that gets Miguel Amaya back as well. Kelly’s power surge likely does not stretch into 2026 but this duo should deliver average numbers at the plate with plus defense. Will the Cubs repeat as the 2nd best defense in the league? It sure looks that way. As for the offense, we were admittedly wrong looking for a marginal improvement last winter. And we very well may be wrong again with a 4-6% downward adjustment for 2026.
— Rotation —
Chicago’s rotation also produced a telling plot – one that shows incredible consistency over the past few seasons. Three straight years of 850+ innings, 10+ WAR, and sub-4.00 ERAs. None of those aspects are particularly awe-inspiring, although WAR is drug down by a 23rd best 20.5% strikeout rate. But they don’t walk many batters and got away with the league’s lowest BABIP last year (.266). That makes for an interesting combination to resolve in the season ahead.
Going back to earlier references, the other two veterans on the final year of their deals are starting pitchers Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon. Boyd’s renaissance was on full display in 2025 as he crossed the 30+ start/175+ inning threshold for the first time since 2019. The right-hander turned 35 though and his outlook leans more towards last year’s 3.65 FIP/4.22 xFIP versus the 3.21 ERA. Even so, Chicago still has a quality control-oriented sub-4.00 veteran leading its rotation for one more season. 34-year-old Jameson Taillon falls into a similar mold with old guy-type injury risk increasing. Lower back tightness delayed his 2024 debut and a pair of lower body injuries interrupted last year’s flow.
The Spice Factor
Right before the Alex Bregman signing came the intriguing 3-for-1 trade for Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. What’s not to like? The 27-year-old throws everything but the kitchen sink at you, gets his share of whiffs, and has a tremendous ceiling. The downside? Injuries. He is a pitcher, after all. It’s been one thing after another since breaking into the MLB back in 2021. Nothing devastating, just the type of injuries that have made it tough on the righty to consistently put in work. Last year was no different (elbow sprain) yet Cabrera hit a career-high 144.2 IP. Approach his 2026 volume conservatively with sub-4.00 stuff as he continues to mature.
Rookie Cade Horton debuted to a successful 2.67 ERA across 118.0 innings. Most importantly, the 24-year-old’s rebound from a shoulder strain in 2024 was successful. Like Cabrera, Horton notched a pro ball career-high for innings last year. You get the picture that workload will persist as a soft spot of the Cubs rotation. The former top prospect has an outlook around the 4.00 mark after adjusting for a .258 BABIP and a middling 20.4% K rate.
Shota Imanaga took the Cubs’ qualifying offer and returns to square up with 2025’s .219 BABIP. He’s a 4.00 southpaw who doesn’t walk much and gets enough whiffs to be dangerous. The tough part is Shota is a fly ball pitcher who pitches in a tough park when the weather gets nice. You can say that about a couple other NL Central venues as well. Imanaga generally keeps the bases clear and limits the damage though. Not a bad guy to have in the middle of the rotation.
The Contingency Buffer
This rotation can get by with multiple injury-concerning players if its contingency plans hold up. Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks have some MLB experience. Those experiences were a little rough last year, though one or the other are likely to be a decent contributor when called upon. Swingman Colin Rea is a serviceable backup plan and Justin Steele should return early in the season. UCL revision surgery put the kibosh on his 2025 campaign after making just four starts. Consensus projections put him on mid-3.00s stuff just north of his 2022-2024 prime. It simply becomes a matter of how much they can get out of the 30-year-old. Just like in last year’s preview, I’m marking them with a similar valuation – except the upside now lies in Cabrera and Horton.
— Bullpen —
Much like the rotation, Chicago’s relievers were unremarkably good. Both groups offered up the lowest walk rates in the Majors and settled in with sub-4.00 ERAs. However, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Pressly, and Chris Flexen take their combined 196.0 innings elsewhere in 2026. These four accounted for a third of the bullpen’s total volume with reasonable success. Still in place though is newfound closer Daniel Palencia, who took the reins in late May. Other than a mild tendency to walk batters in high leverage situations, the 26-year-old made hay with his dynamic repertoire underscored by serious heat.
The flip side to all the offseason turnover is what the Jed Hoyer-led front office brought in. They welcomed most of the Rangers’ veteran free agent relievers to Wrigley Field in addition to taking a gamble on Hunter Harvey’s quality secondaries. Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb are suitable replacements for the departures; Harvey has sub-3.00 potential if he can fade the nagging injuries of 2025. Southpaw Caleb Thielbar rebounded nicely and earns sub-4.00 projections; depth via Porter Hodge and Javier Assad could be worse. The names have changed but the bullpen’s outlook remains on par with the last few seasons of consistent, quality relief pitching.
Cincinnati Reds 2026 Win Total: Open 83.5, Now 82.5
2025 Result: Over 79.5 (83-79 / Pythag: 85)
Can a team be disappointing while exceeding expectations? As a lifelong fan of the Redlegs, the answer is a resounding “yes”. Cincinnati beat their regular season win total and made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade aside from the shortened 2020 season. Yet they were never truly a threat to win the NL Central and needed a collapse from the Mets to make the postseason. There’s arguably no shame in getting bounced by the eventual back-to-back World Champion Dodgers though. You get the feeling this club can lean heavily on their starting pitching for so long before its structural deficiencies become too overwhelming. Has the front office done enough to shore up those weaknesses?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C Ferguson (RP-L)
- P Johnson (RP-R)
- B Burke (RP-L)
- JJ Bleday (OF)
- D Myers (OF)
Subtractions:
- N Martinez (SP-R)
- Z Littell (SP-R)
- M Andujar (OF)
- G Lux (UTL)
- S Barlow (RP-R)
- A Hays (OF)
- B Suter (RP-L)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 76 – 87
— Rotation —
Cincy’s 2025 rotation pitched better than any iteration over the past decade aside from 2020’s group. 2nd highest WAR behind the Phillies’ phenomenal rotation, 8th most innings pitched, and rankings between 8th and 11th in terms of ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Perhaps the most unsung member of the group came from Kansas City in last winter’s swap for fan favorite Jonathan India. While India struggled with the Royals, Brady Singer posted his second straight 32-start season with a team-leading 169.2 IP.
Hunter Greene was incredible (2.76 ERA, 3.27 FIP/3.27 xFIP) but was limited to a career-low 107.2 IP due to a groin injury. That missed time makes us Reds fan wonder how he would have fared over 25+ starts. Cincy’s 26-year-old ace posted career-best strikeout and walk rates that led to a phenomenal 5.08 K/BB ratio. He threw as hard as ever – no coincidence to his nagging groin – and notched his best Stuff+ ratings across all four pitches. 2026 is a year of optimism for Greene after the injuries and rough way to go out against the Dodgers.
The jury seems to be out on left-hander Andrew Abbott despite his continued progression as a Big League starting pitcher. Since debuting in 2023, Abbott tacked on four more starts in each season since. His fastball, curve, and changeup were much improved in year three, as was location – key factors in producing soft contact. Simply stated, Abbott gets it done. Fellow southpaw Nick Lodolo stayed healthy for a full season, generating plenty of ground balls alongside a 5.03 K/BB ratio buoyed by a stifling 4.8% walk rate.
CIN Starting Pitching Performance (2025)
| GS | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Abbott | 29 | 166.1 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 2.87 | 3.66/4.31 | 3.9 |
| H Greene | 19 | 107.2 | 31.4% | 6.2% | 2.76 | 3.27/3.27 | 2.9 |
| B Singer | 32 | 169.2 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 4.03 | 3.98/4.25 | 2.9 |
| N Lodolo | 28 | 155.2 | 24.6% | 4.6% | 3.30 | 3.78/3.62 | 2.8 |
Each of Cincinnati’s top four starters of earned values between 2.8 and 3.9 WAR. However, the bar has gotten higher for this crew – and justifiably so – as the club leaned heavily on its pitchers to doggy paddle their way into a playoff berth. Hunter Greene has the capacity to add another win to his 2026 WAR by elevating to a full 30+ start season. But the overarching caveat to this expectation is that his largest workload was 26 starts and 150.1 IP in 2024. Injuries, unfortunately, continue to be part of his profile unless proven otherwise.
Andrew Abbott’s outlook varies by source, though the projections share a common tone: similar volume with some negative home run avoidance regression. That coming to fruition would knock him back anywhere from 1-2 WAR. Brady Singer’s durability is not in question, especially in light of the nature of his game. He, too, is slated for negative home run regression if the upper-40% ground ball rates do not resurface. Hard contact plus fly balls are typically a bad combination at Great American Ball Park. Singer and Nick Lodolo could lose a collective 1-2 WAR as the 28-year-old left-hander will wrestle with last year’s decreased BABIP (.276) and increased hard hit rate (40.5%).
Chasing More Innings
Departed free agents Zack Littell and Nick Martinez accounted for 36 starts and nearly 200 IP. Filling that gap requires continued good health with Cincinnati’s maturing arms and improved fortunes for Hunter Greene. Meeting this goal requires a shot in the arm from up-and-comers like Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Petty. The way I see things at this point in the offseason, the Reds must make up around 45 starts by sources outside of their four core starters. That takes into account some missed starts on top of what Littell and Martinez leave behind.
2024 #2 overall pick Chase Burns is the leading contender to contribute 20 starts. After cutting his teeth in the Big Leagues with 8 starts in 2025 and a combined 43.1 innings as a starter and reliever, the 23-year-old stands to trim that .360 BABIP and put his fastball/slider combo to work over a larger sample. Like most young starting pitchers, the former Tennessee Volunteer will learn on the job how to become more efficient while harnessing his incredible stuff. The scary part is we haven’t seen all of his offerings. Expectations are tempered for a 20-start, 100+ inning follow-up campaign. Burns’ small-sample 4.57 ERA, 2.65 FIP/2.68 xFIP, and .360 BABIP give way to sub-4.00 projections that should contribute close to 2 wins of value to the rotation.
Former #7 overall draft pick Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson are also expected to be in the mix after recovering from 2024 Tommy John surgeries. Lowder successfully debuted in late 2024 and worked the Arizona Fall League to prepare for Spring Training. His outlook is more in the mid-4.00s range unless he can establish a track record in the MLB as a 20%+ strikeout guy. Chase Petty is more of a speculative add to the rotation given his inexperience while Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar should resurface after missing all of 2025 rehabbing from Tommy John surgeries. Cincinnati’s starting pitcher corps has a fair chance for an encore to last season’s impressive body of work but inexperience and injury history add a touch of downside.
— Bullpen —
Positive offseason news extended into the bullpen with closer Emilio Pagan coming back to the Reds on a two-year deal worth $20M. When Cincinnati signed Pagan prior to the 2024 season, many thought a fly ball reliever wouldn’t survive at Great American Ballpark. It brought me back ugly memories of decades past with Eric Milton’s struggles to keep the ball in the park. Granted, Emilio suffered a .351 BABIP in his first season in Cincy before putting together a quality 2.88 ERA and 3.72 FIP/3.91 xFIP last year via a much more fortunate .200 BABIP. His outlook for 2026? You guessed it – somewhere in the middle of the last two seasons’ ups-and-downs. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs.com captures Emilio Pagan’s recent state of affairs well in his piece from December.
With Pagan back in the fold, the Reds retain their leverage group consisting of Emilio, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft. This trio accounted for 3.7 WAR of the bullpen’s collective 3.3 WAR. Along with Scott Barlow, they shouldered the biggest workload of a relief corps that was otherwise lackluster. Cincinnati parted ways with big-K guys Fernando Cruz, Justin Wilson, and Lucas Sims prior to the 2025 campaign, losing a healthy chunk of its strikeout production as well as inflated walk rates (Cruz and Sims) and home run liability (Wilson and Sims).
What About Those Middle Innings?
Barring significant injuries, the rotation’s trend of eating more innings favors a middling bullpen like Cincinnati’s. Less exposure to a team’s weak link – middle relief in this case – should yield better results. While Emilio Pagan’s reckoning with 2025’s depressed BABIP will mute his overall effectiveness, Graham Ashcraft should experience the opposite effect. Plus the 28-year-old right-hander saw a significant uptick in ground ball rate (55.9%) and swinging strike rate (13.2%) in the transition from starter to reliever. Maintaining a 0.28 HR/9 rate at GABP is not realistic though.
A new crop of middle relievers enters the fray in lieu of the departed walk-prone Scott Barlow and southpaw Brent Suter. The pair’s combined 127.0 IP – including Suter’s 21 multi-inning outings – will be distributed among Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke. All three are generalized as 60+ inning, 4.00 veterans. Johnson has higher ERA targets as the least ground ball-heavy arm compared to the two lefties. Projections have Cincy’s leverage trio of Pagan, Santillan, and Ashcraft at a 1-2 win deficit from 2025 though. Even with the changing of the middle relief guard, those declining numbers likely keep the bullpen in last season’s league-average range.
— Position Players —
I feel confident after many years in the game that I can successfully separate handicapping from my Reds fandom. While we would have loved to see them exceed our projected 3-5% offensive uptick, 2025 was a step in the right direction. But these offensive gains were anything but sufficient to fuel a true playoff run. Everything from 716 runs scored to a .245/.315/.391 slash line was mediocre, at best.
Opposing the modest batted ball improvement was a downturn in base running contributions. Stolen base volume slumped from 3rd most in 2024 to a lackluster 19th. 105 stolen bases at a 77.7% success rate is a far cry from the 190 bags at 79.8% or 207 at 82.1% in the previous two seasons. Plus the other intangible aspects of advancing bases, smart aggression, etc. were less impactful. Spencer Steer was less active on the base paths, Jake Fraley fell out of favor, and Elly De La Cruz ran himself into the ground in 2025.
Stuck in Second Gear
Lineup centerpiece Elly De La Cruz gradually wore down from a second straight 160+ game campaign, carrying the lion’s share of the offense’s production. Despite shaving 2.3 wins from his stellar 2024 season, Elly’s 4.3 WAR accounted for nearly one-third of the entire position player corps’ value. Some of this can be explained by him playing through a left quad strain in the second half. The 24-year-old shortstop’s production dropped 48% coming down the stretch. It’s no coincidence how that lines up with the team’s production flatline in the plot above.
Durability is already a question for a player of his build with that much action. Holding this dynamo back sounds like a bad idea, especially when the rest of the lineup struggles. But there is a strong case for sprinkling in additional days off to get more out of De La Cruz over the long haul. Small upticks across all facets of his game – hitting, running, and fielding – are a common theme among projections that factor in more rest days.
Elly’s 2023 breakout compatriots Matt McLain and Spencer Steer were not able to find that next gear to regain their short-lived glory. Second baseman McLain’s return from missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery was a major letdown (.220/.300/.343, 77 wRC+). And while man without a position Spencer Steer seemed to have found a home at first base, he really only shined for a couple months. Losing 6.7% from his hard contact rate is concerning, although a small correction is likely. On a positive note, Steer recovered from a rough dip against left-handed pitching in 2024. Unfortunately, the lineup needed much more juice in that department to stay relevant.
A Cast In Need of Support
Keep in mind that the Reds lost their two most productive hitters against lefties this winter. Austin Hays slashed .319/.400/.549 and Miguel Andujar slashed .356/.356/.578 at 155 and 153 wRC+, respectively, against southpaws. That was the Reds’ weaker side, mind you. Andujar’s influence was limited to the second half while Hays was on and off of the IL throughout the first half. Otherwise, only catcher Tyler Stephenson’s bat registered north of league average against lefties.
Safe to say reuniting with fan – and clubhouse – favorite Eugenio Suarez mitigates the loss of Hays and Andujar. The 34-year-old slugger brings his 30+ home run power back to the Queen City after four seasons out west. Last year was the first in a while where he did not excel against southpaws, though Geno’s track record hints at a rebound. Mix him into the formula that should lead to the lineup’s improvement with this split as well as a much-needed increase in power that can take some pressure off of Elly De La Cruz.
Don’t forget that bat-first prospect Sal Stewart debuted to much fanfare in September, slugging his way to a .255/.293/.545 line in just 58 plate appearances. His call-up satiated the demands of the fanbase for a quick second. Now it’s time for the follow up. The 22-year-old thumper likely takes over for Spencer Steer at first base with Ke’Bryan Hayes set at third and Suarez slotting into the DH spot more often than not. Stewart is another cog poised to fill some of Cincy’s void against left-handed pitching.
Finding the Right Complementary Pieces
You don’t necessarily want to lose productive left-handed bats; however, Gavin Lux was deemed expendable by the front office. Lux got on base steadily but in a lopsided fashion due to his inability to produce against lefties. In response, Cincinnati fills left field with a piecemeal platoon of recent pickups JJ Bleday and Dane Myers. They project as a plus tandem given their opposite handedness splits and decent corner outfield skills. Myers could even see reps in center behind TJ Friedl given his quality work there last season in Miami.
Will Benson’s future is in jeopardy after another disappointing campaign at the plate. Noelvi Marte’s weak side split is indeed weak, leaving the door open for Benson to find something close to his 2023 form. Otherwise, the promotion of prospects Cam Collier and Hector Rodriguez could not come soon enough. This is arguably the Reds’ weakest spot short of locked-in players Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson potentially falling apart. The numbers pencil out with modest offensive upside to the tune of 1-2% skewed towards improved splits against lefties and a little more juice on the bases. Fielding should stay close to neutral, retaining last year’s gains.
St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Win Total: Open 73.5, Now 70.5
2025 Result: Over 75.5 (78-84 / Pythag: 74)
The Cardinals’ handcuffed rebuild of 2025 has officially turned real. No-trade clauses have been waived and players with value on the open market moved. John Mozeliak turned the keys over to Chaim Bloom, whose job is to rejuvenate the franchise’s player development system and leverage the young talent in the system. Pillars like Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, and Miles Mikolas are gone. But the pipeline is strong and several of their top tier prospects are knocking at the door.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R Fitts (SP-R)
- D May (SP-R)
- H Dobbins (SP-R)
- R Stanek (RP-R)
- R Urias (INF)
- J Bruihl (RP-L)
Subtractions:
- S Gray (SP-R)
- B Donovan (INF)
- M Mikolas (SP-R)
- W Contreras (1B)
- N Arenado (3B)
- J King (RP-L)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 70 – 72
— Position Players —
“Rebuild” sounds a lot more disruptive than what the Cardinals will experience between the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The lineup’s output was already stifled to bottom third rankings in many categories. They hit the 2nd fewest home runs in the league (148), exhibited lackluster plate discipline, and were not especially effective running the bases. A .245 batting average and .314 OBP were passable, though the lack of power really hampered St. Louis’ run scoring down the stretch. This phenomenon is not necessarily unique for the Cardinals, whose offense has been below average more often than not dating back to the 2019 season.
The natural place to start is with three key veteran position player departures. Brendan Donovan vacates second base after four consistent seasons averaging as a plus-19% hitter. Most importantly, Donnie Doubles was half of the Cards’ one-two punch against right-handed pitching along with Alec Burleson. Plus Donovan’s splits were as exaggerated as ever in 2025 with a 140 wRC+ against righties compared to 75 wRC+ against southpaws.
The Domino Effect
Speaking of Alec Burleson, the 27-year-old slides over to first base now that Willson Contreras has been traded to the Red Sox. Contreras led the club by a slim margin with 20 home runs and was their leading RBI guy with 80. The left-handed Burleson likely loses a few percent off of last year’s spiked .290/.343/.459 slash line but still shapes up as one of St. Louis’ better hitters.
Shuffling the infield’s right side creates a prime opportunity for MLB top ten prospect JJ Wetherholt. After crushing Triple-A pitching (.314/.416/.562), the immensely-talented 23-year-old is expected to earn the second base job out of camp. The natural shortstop pairs very well with elite defender Masyn Winn up the middle and runs the bases well. Projections are mixed at the plate with a league-average center point well below Donovan’s. It’s hard not to be excited about what this kid can do for this transitioning lineup.
Last, but not least, on the departure list is 34-year-old Nolan Arenado after five seasons in St. Louis. Aging reduced the veteran’s effectiveness in both aspects of his game over time, muffling his elite defense the last few seasons. Plus his power numbers slipped to the point where he produced a paltry 0.9 WAR in an injury-affected 2025 season. Likely successors at the hot corner are Nolan Gorman with a short-side platoon bat like veteran infielder Ramon Urias or Thomas Saggese who may also get reps in the outfield. Such a combination should combine as a league-average bat, though the strong-side Gorman yields quite a bit defensively to Arenado.
No Lack Of Continuity
The aforementioned Masyn Winn got even better defending the shortstop position. How much of an effect a bum right knee played is arguably the biggest unknown when projecting his 2026. Winn’s extra-base hit profile suffered to the point where overall offense dropped 13% from his 2024 breakout. The catch is there’s no unified outlook for a firm bounceback at the plate though. I’m in the camp that believes Masyn getting his wheels back underneath him will push him back towards league-average production.
Centerfielder Victor Scott II missed a little bit of time on the IL in an otherwise spectacular defensive season. The 25-year-old’s bat is truly lacking, sapping his effectiveness as a prolific base stealer. But Scott is always a threat to run when he gets on base in about 30% of his plate appearances. Unfortunately, there aren’t any projections expecting him to rise above last year’s 76 wRC+. Victor is part of an outfield group that really needs left fielder Lars Nootbar to be fully healthy. Supposedly the veteran is in decent shape after surgery on both heels. That bodes well for a 15% improvement at the plate, better mobility in the field, and a little more action on the bases. Nootbar’s success helps mitigate the loss of Brendan Donovan’s oomph against righties too.
The Cardinals’ situation behind the plate is indeed an interesting one. Willson Contreras’ transition from catcher to first base in 2024 opened the door for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to shine. Pages has become the go-to defensive backstop after making great strides from his rookie debut. Herrera is working through an elbow injury but stands to play more DH than catcher this season. The 25-year-old was one of the team’s best hitters in 2025 and does not need platoon help. So that opens the door for top prospect Jimmy Crooks to make his mark. In the meantime, Yohel Pozo is serviceable in this jumbled mix at the catcher spot.
Kicking the Tires
Understanding that the Cardinals are not going to compete for a playoff spot enables the club to give Jordan Walker another go in right field. The bat-first 23-year-old has yet to sniff the success of his 2023 rookie campaign that featured a .276/.342/.445 line and 116 wRC+. In the two seasons since, Walker’s numbers have fallen 40-50% below that high water mark. The crazy part is that he’s still young and rips the cover off the ball. On the flip side, Walker struck out at a 31.8% clip and pounded too many balls into the ground. Yet his projections have him improving anywhere from 20-35% with a reduced strikeout rate.
St. Louis’ prospect pipeline is strong as JJ Wetherholt and Jimmy Crooks have high likelihoods of joining the team. Crooks may have to bide his time in Triple-A out of camp like outfielder Joshua Baez, though left-hander Nathan Church may be another prospect that makes the Opening Day roster. The 25-year-old can be squeezed into any position on the grass but is still on the raw side. Jose Fermin, who is now out of options, gains from the club losing three infielders this offseason as right-handed depth with a decent bat and glove.
Despite the big changes to this position player group, we project similar offensive and defensive levels as 2025. Brendan Donovan’s absence impacts St. Louis’ effectiveness against right-handed pitching though. And a lot of their treading water hinges on rebounds from Lars Nootbar and Jordan Walker. Regardless, I am interested in seeing young talent like JJ Wetherholt hit the ground running in 2026.
— Rotation —
I mentioned continuity among the remaining position player corps. When talking about the Cardinals starting pitchers, 2025 itself was a season of continuity. Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Matthew Liberatore each contributed 29-32 starts for a total of 123. Aside from Gray, however, the rotation was a put it in play kind of group with sub-20% strikeout rates. Contact pitchers with an aggregated .298 BABIP (7th highest) make for a tough combination. Their 4.67 ERA ranked 25th in the MLB; the 4.33 FIP/4.22 xFIP was slightly better.
Sonny Gray will spend the final year of his contract in Boston via trade, though it is unclear who the ace torch will be passed to. 26-year-old lefty Matthew Liberatore is the leader in the clubhouse after a successful first full season in the rotation. 151.2 innings over 29 starts with a 4.21 ERA and 4.03 FIP/4.31 xFIP is far from terrible. He has some interesting pitches that can only get better if he figures out how to command them more effectively. More of the same or even a little worse is Liberatore’s expectation.
Andre Pallante is a ground baller expected to outperform last year’s 5.31 ERA as he stretched out into 162.2 IP as a full time starter. If the home run spike is truly a short-lived issue, Pallante falls into similar territory as Liberatore. Those two plus free agent addition Dustin May are fine as mid-rotation starters worth 1-2 WAR. Sitting on top of the heap, not so much. May’s return after several years of baseball and non-baseball injuries was okay (4.96 ERA, 4.88 FIP/4.53 xFIP) given his battles with the long ball and hard contact in general.
Revisiting the Youth Movement
That still leaves a lot of starts and innings for a number of young arms to fill. Last winter we ran down four budding starting pitchers who remain in the Cardinals system today. Unfortunately, Sem Robberse’s Tommy John surgery set his trajectory back a bit and Tink Hence’s injury-filled Minor League campaign effectively does the same for him. Quinn Matthews never got a call-up but 2026 could be his year. The one out of that foursome who took a small step forward in his MLB career is left-hander Michael McGreevy. The 25-year-old pitched 90.0 innings across 16 starts for a solid 5.625 IP/start average. His results were generally as-advertised: impressive command and plenty of grounders. Tack on a handful more starts and maintain a low-4.00s or better level McGreevy to enter the 1-2 WAR land where St. Louis’ other starters live.
Depth was bolstered this offseason via trades with Boston for Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins. They’re righties with limited MLB experience who can easily sneak into the larger group of Cardinals starters. Yet it may be bullpen workhorse Kyle Leahy who rounds out the Opening Day rotation. Including the one late-2025 start, the righty has pitched 136.2 innings in 95 outings between the 2024 and 2025 seasons. The club intends to stretch him out in Spring Training to help this bunch lay down some innings. Aside from the occasional overachiever and underachiever in the rotation queue, this is deep group of low-to-mid 4.00s pitchers still making their marks in the MLB. The 2026 group will look very differently without Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas, though I will not be surprised if the net change from 2025 is minimal.
— Bullpen —
If you’re talking rebuild, look no further than the bullpen to trim some fat. Out the door at the trade deadline went veterans Phil Maton, Steven Matz, and closer Ryan Helsley. They combined for 120.1 innings in St. Louis with ERAs of 2.35, 3.91, and 3.00, respectively. Yet the bullpen never dropped off after their departures. Kyle Leahy, Matt Svanson, JoJo Romero, and Riley O’Brien were stout in holding things down. In fact, Cardinals relievers posted the 6th highest WAR (2.6) after the All-Star Break with a 3.65 ERA and 3.54 FIP/3.76 xFIP. We were very wrong to expect the bullpen to dive into the bottom third if Helsley was dealt.
We know that innings eater Kyle Leahy is a leading candidate to fill out the Opening Day rotation, shifting a fair amount of his workload from the bullpen. That leaves Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, and Matt Svanson as the leading late-inning group candidates. JoJo is arguably the most dependable given the last few seasons’ track record and results in high-leverage situations. O’Brien got his first real taste of leverage work and did not wilt, though this step up in class will be fairly fresh for Swanson. It’s a mixed bag of MLB experience, albeit not a terrible one.
Fresh faces like veteran Ryne Stanek, Justin Bruihl, and George Soriano are 4.00+ guys brought in to keep the pond stocked. Wildcards like Gordon Graceffo and starting pitcher prospects add some interest to the bullpen; a unit that could be a bit of a roller coaster in 2026. But the losses are real – especially with Leahy as a starter – and add up to a 2-3 WAR dropoff from 2025. It’s good enough for a team without aspirations to compete in the division this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 78.5
2025 Result: Under 76.5 (71-91 / Pythag: 74)
In case you didn’t know, Paul Skenes is a damn good pitcher. From Rookie of the Year in 2024 to the reigning Cy Young Award winner, the young righty is the foundation of the Pittsburgh Pirates. But as the Pirates faithful know quite well, somebody needs to build something worthwhile on top of that foundation. This year may actually be different as ownership and GM Ben Cherington were active this winter…in a legitimate way. It may not be New York or Los Angeles money; however, it’s a more concerted effort than some teams can claim to have made. Could this actually be the year that the Pirates make a run at the postseason?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- R O’Hearn (1B/OF)
- B Lowe (2B)
- M Ozuna (DH)
- G Soto (RP-L)
- J Mangum (OF)
- M Montgomery (RP-L)
- J Garcia (OF)
- J Urquidy (RHP)
Subtractions:
- M Burrows (SP-R)
- T Pham (OF)
- A McCutchen (OF)
- C Holderman (RP-R)
- C Shugart (RP-R)
- A Canario (OF)
BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 76 – 80
— Rotation —
We were warned that Paul Skenes is the real deal. After a brilliant rookie campaign, the 23-year-old righty from LSU showed he was anything but a one-hit wonder. Neither the eye test nor the numbers mislead you. 1.97 ERA, 2.36 FIP/3.03 xFIP and a 5.14 K/BB ratio over a robust 187.2 innings was more than sufficient to take home his first Cy Young Award. His continued brilliance included an additional 9 starts and increased whiffs to earn 6.5 WAR – right in the same neighborhood as his AL counterpart Tarik Skubal and the Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez. If there’s any degradation anticipated for next season, it’s some home run luck regression. Skenes’ arsenal and command are elite, plus he gets plenty of ground balls to frustrate hitters. That’s good enough to establish a 5+ WAR baseline moving forward as he approaches 6 innings/start.
Last year was a throwback to the 2015 & 2017 seasons when Gerrit Cole headlined the rotation with guys like Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, and Jameson Taillon. Those were top ten units by value, workload, and effectiveness. Granted, 2025’s rotation was extremely top-loaded with only one other starter pitching more than 120 innings, Mitch Keller. After trading Mike Burrows for more offense this winter, Keller stands to be manager Don Kelly’s #2 starter in his eighth season with the Bucs. The veteran doesn’t have a dominant arsenal but has started 31+ games in each of the last three seasons with a consistent, ground ball pitch-to-contact approach. As his pitch quality gradually steps down, Keller projects as a low-4.00s innings eater that the Pirates need right now.
The Youth Movement is Alive and Well
With Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller anchoring Pittsburgh’s rotation, Don Kelly turns to a host of less experienced arms to fill out the 162-game schedule. The club moved on from journeymen Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney mid season, then Mike Burrows and Johan Oviedo this winter. This foursome accounted for 73 starts, 357.1 innings, and 2.1 WAR. Burrows and Oviedo were dealt from a deep group of arms in lieu of parting ways with known quantity Mitch Keller – someone who was rumored to be on the move for over a year now. Looking forward, most of these arms are saddled with the usual more volume, less effectiveness outlook that comes with maturation.
- Braxton Ashcraft (26, RHP) debuted in a split role between the bullpen and rotation, making 8 impressive starts worth 1.1 WAR. 20+ starts around 4.00 replaces Mike Burrows’ contribution last season.
- Bubba Chandler (23, RHP) also debuted in 2025 with a repertoire that features a filthy fastball/slider/changeup combination. 20+ starts in the low 4.00s with upside occupies a Falter or Heaney slot.
- Hunter Barco (25, LHP) rose to the AAA ranks last year before making a pair of appearances in late September. Whether he breaks camp with the Pirates or not, Barco is the prospect with the highest expectations to impact the 2026 club.
- Thomas Harrington (24, RHP) got a taste of the Majors amidst a ho-hum season in AAA, painting him as a mid-4.00s arm in an expanded role with the Buccos. His arsenal is decent but command is what he must harness to be productive at the MLB level.
Turning Depth Into Production
24-year-old righty Jared Jones is slated to return in the early-to-mid parts of the season after undergoing internal brace surgery in May 2025. Jones burst onto the scene in 2024 with 22 starts of 4.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP/3.78 xFIP quality worth 1.8 WAR. We will have to wait and see if his plus arsenal is intact after surgery, although projections are fairly unified around the 4.00 mark that fits well with the Pirates’ basket of budding starting pitchers. It’s not hard to see Jones, Ashcraft, and Chandler fill and surpass the roles of Burrows, Falter, and Heaney of a year ago. Plus there is Barco and Harrington to improve on the Johan Oviedo role.
Reclamation project Jose Urquidy may bridge the early season gap while Jared Jones wraps up his rehab process. Otherwise, spot starts and #6 duties from ground ball specialist Carmen Mlodzinski or young prospects should round things out for 2026. Keep in mind that most of Carmen’s value came out of the bullpen via 50.1 innings at 2.15 ERA and 2.64 FIP/2.97 xFIP. That’s in opposition to 4.99 ERA and 4.04 FIP/4.26 xFIP over 12 starts. Unless something dramatic has changed his approach this offseason, expected him to be a mid-4.00s starting pitcher when needed while retaining effectiveness around the 3.00 mark in relief. Even if Paul Skenes cannot match his elite 2025 numbers, the Pirates rotation should match its collective value with upside if their young starters stay afloat.
— Bullpen —
In many respects, Pittsburgh’s bullpen was much better than what you would expect for a 71-win team. Their relievers’ collective 36-38 record outshined the starters’ 35-53 while saving 36 games at a 60.0% rate. That’s just below league average. Plus their overarching numbers (3.83 ERA, 3.78 FIP/4.23 xFIP) combined with a 2.58 K/BB ratio to grade out as the MLB’s 8th highest unit by WAR (5.1).
David Bednar’s comeback story was a key part of the bullpen’s success, though he was flipped to the Yankees at the trade deadline for three prospects. The front office likely had negative regression on their minds when looking at Bednar moving forward in addition to their usual flip pitchers for prospects mindset. Another factor was just how well Dennis Santana – another trade return from the Yankees – has performed since joining the Pirates in the summer of 2024. Both Bednar and Santana cranked out low-2.00s ERAs last season, creating big expectations for this relief unit in 2026. The trouble with Santana is the 0.64 HR/9 innings and .211 BABIP staring him down.
Trying to Stay Respectable
A pair of left-handed newcomers join the bullpen to support building blocks Dennis Santana and Carmen Mlodzinski. Veteran Gregory Soto’s great stuff and marginal command slot nicely into a setup role. The underlying caveat is the hittable nature quantified by .371 and .341 BABIPs in the last couple seasons. Also suffering from an inflated BABIP (.384), 25-year-old Mason Montgomery comes in via the three-team trade for starting pitcher Mike Burrows. He’s a prototypical fastball/slider guy with big velocity and suspect location whose rough edges need polishing.
This is a group that produced at a level which may be hard to replicate in 2026. Regression from Santana and command questions surrounding Soto and Montgomery headline the uncertainty going into the season. Former Rockies’ reliever Justin Lawrence successfully returned from a prolonged injury late last season but projects around 4.00 over a full season. Quad-A type Isaac Mattison, Kyle Nicolas, and southpaw Evan Sisk worked their way into middle relief roles that should help prop up expectations around the 4.00 mark as a whole. It’s hard not to project the 2026 relief unit to lose 2+ wins of value with no shortage of 4.00+ ERA arms. The upside is there, just balanced out by uncertainty from the unproven relievers.
— Position Players —
Scoring runs was the one thing that the Pirates failed to improve upon. Pitching was better from top to bottom. Even their fielding improved. But when it came time to swing the bat, it was a sad state of affairs. Dead last in the Majors with 117 home runs, 583 runs, and .350 slugging says just about all you need to know. One saving grace was their commitment to being active on the base paths, swiping the 15th most bases (115) at a rate just below league average. As decent as that was, Pittsburgh struggled to add impactful value through base running without the bats to leverage it.
You’ve probably come across this factoid somewhere along the way this winter: only two Pirates hitters with 50+ plate appearances ended the season with a league average or better wRC+. Catcher Joey Bart (101) and first baseman Spencer Horwitz (119) earned this dubious distinction. They were also part of a contingent of five Pirates hitters topping the 1 WAR mark. Something truly needed to change with this lineup.
In Search Of: First Baseman & Designated Hitter
It seems like the Pirates have been searching for a legitimate first baseman and/or designated hitter ever since Josh Bell’s prime seasons. Answers like Daniel Vogelbach, Ji-Man Choi, and Carlos Santana filled the gaps in recent years but didn’t quite move the needle. Even aging Pittsburgh legend Andrew McCutcheon did what he could to fill the DH spot with diminishing results since his triumphant return in 2023. But this year is different.
Last winter’s understated acquisition Spencer Horwitz missed the first seven weeks due to a wrist injury. Then he jumped right into an impressive second half before finishing the season with a respectable .272/353/.434 line worth 1.7 WAR. Unfortunately, Horwitz doesn’t look to be an everyday player due to his ongoing struggles against left-handed pitching. This only exacerbates the roster’s massive liability against southpaws: their 76 wRC+ in this split ranked second to last. At least he carries a +25%-ish stick against righties.
This offseason, Cherington got in front of the market by signing a pair of impact free agent bats. First came Ryan O’Hearn on a two-year, $29M deal. Then came former Braves DH Marcel Ozuna whose 2025 decline to a 114 wRC+ looks to be a solid baseline for 2026. What makes Ozuna a great fit for Pittsburgh’s DH spot is still being able to hit left- and right-handed pitching similarly through this recent falloff. That bumps O’Hearn to a corner outfield spot or as a nontraditional short-side platoon parter to Spencer Horwitz at first base if necessary.
More is Better
In somewhat surprising fashion, the front office continued to press the issue with their lineup rejuvenation. Dealing Mike Burrows slightly weakened the club’s pitching depth but returned two plug-and-play position players: second baseman Brandon Lowe and outfielder Jake Mangum. The 31-year-old Lowe is a more known quantity as a solid hitter against righties whose fielding took a tumble last year. Aside from being a small defensive downgrade at second, Brandon’s splits against left-handed hitting swings wildly from season to season. It’s a coin flip whether the former Tampa Bay Ray improves the team in this regard.
The outfield gets a new wrinkle with both Ryan O’Hearn and switch hitter Jake Mangum in the fold. Left field was effectively vacant upon Tommy Pham’s departure and Jack Suwinski’s horrendous 2025. Reasonable projections generally align Mangum’s bat with Pham’s as being good against righties and serviceable otherwise. Jake arguably provides better fielding, though his MLB body of work is still limited. O’Hearn may or may not sustain last year’s gains against left-handers but is otherwise potent against righties.
Old Standbys, New Blood
Workhorse Bryan Reynolds’ transition to right field in 2025 was fine and the 31-year-old projects similarly with several percent of offensive upside. Expect him to get enough “rest days” at DH to free up reps for the young Jhostynxon Garcia to absorb. Boston’s former prospect could bounce around all three outfield positions to translate his big power and arm into productive skills at the MLB level. Until there is a better solution – and a different position to fill – Oneil Cruz will be Pittsburgh’s centerfielder.
The former shortstop’s -14 DRS and +4 FRV are at odds when it comes to quantifying his defensive value. At the plate, however, Cruz is a crushing free swinger coming off of a weird season where increasing strikeout and ground ball rates tugged against an astronomical 56.6% hard hit rate. He pounded the ball harder than ever but not necessarily over the wall or into the alleys. Yet the true boogeyman appears to be between his ears. Swinging at the wrong pitches and watching the meaty ones go right on by won’t get it done. Reversion back to league average helps the club against lefties while opening up more opportunities to do damage with his legs.
The offseason additions to the position player group make it tougher for top prospect Konnor Griffin to become the first teenager since Juan Soto to make his MLB debut. Griffin is the perfect upstart to complement Paul Skenes on the pitching side. Especially because the Pirates shortstop group yielded 1.1 WAR with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jared Triolo holding down the fort. Triolo likely stays at third base with Ke’Bryan Hayes now in Cincinnati and Nick Gonzales as a natural middle infielder. Both of the incumbents have limited upside in the season ahead. But Griffin has the power and speed to contribute to the lineup right away. It won’t be without growing pains though, as very few rookies are truly spectacular when thrown into a 300+ plate appearance debut.
Still More Questions Than Answers
The primary options at shortstop and third base carry uncertainty whether they can rise above league-average offensive production. Prospect Konnor Griffin has tremendous longterm upside and is slated to show some of that off in 2026. Manager Don Kelly and his coaches know that these lineup positions have room to improve on. Chances are, there will be at least small gains there. Pittsburgh’s catcher group took a dip with Joey Bart shedding 20% from his 2024 offensive numbers and Henry Davis taking Yasmani Grandal’s workload. Now it’s doubtful that Endy Rodriguez, whose health issues continue to plague his MLB career, will make much of an impact behind the plate this season.
Some teams can pull off multiple platoon positions while being a viable, well-rounded offense. The Pirates aren’t necessarily one of them as currently composed. Role player right-handed hitters like Nick Yorke and Jhostynxon Garcia as well as prospect Konnor Griffin must produce against lefties. And Oneil Cruz may not rebound from his slump. Jake Mangum is relatively unproven and we don’t know if Ryan O’Hearn will turn back into a pumpkin without an Orioles uniform on. It’s a good thing Don Kelly has more options to play with this season.
Their fielding should stand in similar stature to 2025 with some give-and-take between infield and outfield. On the hitting side, it’s hard not to find areas of improvement with this revamped lineup. Veteran infusions plus promising upstarts should shake things up enough to produce an additional 4-7% of offense. A lot of fresh blood has been pumped into this position player group and the Pirates should reap those rewards. Unfortunately, this is a team where you really needed to get in early if bullish on their outlook. I got a taste but not enough.
2025 NL Central Projected Standings
- Chicago Cubs (87-75)
- Milwaukee Brewers (81-81)
- Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85)
- St. Louis Cardinals (71-91)
Bases Loaded
It’s the last week of February and we’re halfway home with these division previews. Need to catch up? Check out our looks at the AL Central and NL East, or visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to check everything out. Want to stay in the loop? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email notifications:
